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Posted: #2451
posted second half pick bcs on college football thread
 
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Posted: #2452
Quote Originally Posted by Shortbus:

I've been watching this gentleman's picks for some time now and he is as good at this very, very tough game to beat as anyone.  His cash management and discipline is exactly what most gambler's and handicapper's lack.  And his preparation is apparent in his record.

Long before the internet I was a "local book" and every week there were gamblers that knew their stuff, but they would bet on the 2 teams they really liked that week.....plus the TV game....plus some others just to have action and they ended up paying at the end of the week rather then getting an envelope.

Phixer's documented record of profit is actually very rare and he is truly one of the successful gamblers that I know (via this forum only).  And the NFL is the toughest of all on gamblers.  I have a friend that manages the sportbook at a LV Strip Mega Resort, and he told me 2/3 of the cash at their book was on Cincy over San Diego.  He also told me that nearly 4/5 of the money and action at their book was on KC over Indy. He said he moved that line constantly down to where at kick off KC was -2 (they were +2.5 when they opened the action.

Lambs to slaughter, they say.  Well I can tell you this:  If you only follow the numbers when they move and take the house side, over the long run you will make little to no money, because anymore the books don't give a damn about balancing the action.  They are now owned by Mega Corporations and they have very deep pockets.  So sometimes they are very comfortable to leave the line as is and just take a side.  Years ago, when it was guys like me, balancing the action was critical because if I got sided too much, or had to lay too much off, I could have been wiped out.

I guess the moral(s) of the story is this (funny how when you get older you start looking for the moral to the story and you realize how incredibly stupid you were):

1.  If you are going to follow a guy, this is the guy I would recommend.
2.  If you are not going to do the work yourself, then follow one person, not a bunch of them.  That is a surefire recipe to play way too many games or second-guess yourself when one "tout/expert/blowhard" likes one team, and then another guy you listen to likes another team, you are going to end up not betting as much as you should....or not betting at all.
3.  There is a saying in horse racing that applies to sports gambling in general:  "You can beat a race, but you cannot beat the RACES! The takeout, or "vig" eats you up.  So only bet the games you like or in this case, the games that Phixer likes.  Hell, he even gives you the amounts, and if you have a short bankroll, just be a percentage of his.

You should be on Sunday morning TV shows, not the jackoff idiot has-beens that have no clue who's going to win....and don't care.  And I know people that year after year want to know who Dan Marino or Mike Ditka picked....they cannot even have a respectable record without the spread.

So anyway, hat's off to you Sir.  You are the best I have ever seen and I've been around this for damn near 50 years.  Good luck!

i will cut and keep this post in my safe box. thanks
 
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Posted: #2453
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

posted second half pick bcs on college football thread
and won 500$ on fsu -7.5 second half 
 
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Posted: #2454
Quote Originally Posted by Shortbus:

I've been watching this gentleman's picks for some time now and he is as good at this very, very tough game to beat as anyone.  His cash management and discipline is exactly what most gambler's and handicapper's lack.  And his preparation is apparent in his record.

Long before the internet I was a "local book" and every week there were gamblers that knew their stuff, but they would bet on the 2 teams they really liked that week.....plus the TV game....plus some others just to have action and they ended up paying at the end of the week rather then getting an envelope.

Phixer's documented record of profit is actually very rare and he is truly one of the successful gamblers that I know (via this forum only).  And the NFL is the toughest of all on gamblers.  I have a friend that manages the sportbook at a LV Strip Mega Resort, and he told me 2/3 of the cash at their book was on Cincy over San Diego.  He also told me that nearly 4/5 of the money and action at their book was on KC over Indy. He said he moved that line constantly down to where at kick off KC was -2 (they were +2.5 when they opened the action.

Lambs to slaughter, they say.  Well I can tell you this:  If you only follow the numbers when they move and take the house side, over the long run you will make little to no money, because anymore the books don't give a damn about balancing the action.  They are now owned by Mega Corporations and they have very deep pockets.  So sometimes they are very comfortable to leave the line as is and just take a side.  Years ago, when it was guys like me, balancing the action was critical because if I got sided too much, or had to lay too much off, I could have been wiped out.

I guess the moral(s) of the story is this (funny how when you get older you start looking for the moral to the story and you realize how incredibly stupid you were):

1.  If you are going to follow a guy, this is the guy I would recommend.
2.  If you are not going to do the work yourself, then follow one person, not a bunch of them.  That is a surefire recipe to play way too many games or second-guess yourself when one "tout/expert/blowhard" likes one team, and then another guy you listen to likes another team, you are going to end up not betting as much as you should....or not betting at all.
3.  There is a saying in horse racing that applies to sports gambling in general:  "You can beat a race, but you cannot beat the RACES! The takeout, or "vig" eats you up.  So only bet the games you like or in this case, the games that Phixer likes.  Hell, he even gives you the amounts, and if you have a short bankroll, just be a percentage of his.

You should be on Sunday morning TV shows, not the jackoff idiot has-beens that have no clue who's going to win....and don't care.  And I know people that year after year want to know who Dan Marino or Mike Ditka picked....they cannot even have a respectable record without the spread.

So anyway, hat's off to you Sir.  You are the best I have ever seen and I've been around this for damn near 50 years.  Good luck!


I've met countless books that were simply squeezed out of the market through the years myself... Only about half of the locals in my area have a layoff system... Back then local books do credit checks and so forth for players,,, now a days,,, players have gotton smarter,, i've seen local books run on a big loss,, and of coarse you get some players that get over extended and hit back 2 back bad weeks... Its harder back then for local books,, if its not having a layoff system or its the lack of technology,,, now a days,,, locals are behind really sharp lines because of the internet and its availability.. And because of the internet,, Lines are sharper and so are the sheep.... And yes 10% will absolutely eat most people up... But it opens the market up for offshore and locals for half the price... I can't imagine if vegas slashes their prices someday lol.... 

Anytime a good handicapper can maintain a high winning percentage over a respectable large sample size,,, be sure to believe that handicapper knows his math and has Phix in his soul... Because otherwise you are merely flipping a coin on a 50/50 proposition  and eventually vig will eat you up on the way down...  

Best of luck to you Phixer,,and lets find that next phix...
 
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Posted: #2455
If you read my last post or so here I thought that FSU could win by 3, 6 or 7  at most and STILL make books and VEGAS quite happy....THAT'S what happened!!!....Goodbye straight bets, parlays, lots of  6-7 point teasers depending on when you bet etc....Isn't betting great!!!!.....If you  CAN'T think on the side of VEGAS, you are in quicksand up to your neck!!!!.....After hearing of all of the TOTAL LOVE on Fl. St. almost everywhere that I went, heard and read,, and the OVER-UNDER being hit OVER at an alarming rate, 65 to 69, the obvious play to me, as I again wrote in my post, was AUBURN-UNDER....Ahhhhh yessss!....Don't ya love Vegas?....And as the country song says----GOD IS GREAT, BEER IS GOOD AND PEOPLE ARE CRAZY!!!!!!....Get 'em Phix!....Nice play last night!!!!....I can see a HUGE play this weekend and I'll post here soon...Watching the line now..I know you'll prob. agree.....Vegas is many things, but setups are their specialty....PART ONE last week was the setup, now comes the nut cruncher!!!!....Good luck guys....Oh, and by the way, that TOTAL last night just happened to land on 65.....LOL...LOL!!!!.
 
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Posted: #2456
i feel like i can retire now. not from betting, but from posting. why? i think i have achieved - we have achieved the most important thing about any business youre getting into: understanding it right and measuring up to it with your skills and capabilities. we made a long way from people thinking were crazy to the current standing and if you ask me - that is even more important in a long run.
but no. i am not crying "hold me here" and i wont retire from posting as i think that everyday there are new individuals ready to rush in with their hard earned dollars and put them at the feet of vegas. i just wanted to stress the point how much satisfaction i get from the fact the message sunk in many minds and also from the fact that i found out i am not alone and there are many who had the same perspective about sportsbetting much before i came.
i once again wanna thank you all for being part of this second to only sportsmavin's million and a half views thread and for the time and intelligence invested in your comment and readings.
my special thanks go to those who over the period have repeatedly proved to me that trolling is something we can all tolerate and leave with in peace and humorous ways and thank all the trolls and sons of trolls for making it possible for us to understand that we all are one big soul divided into fragments and have million different faces at each and every given period of our lifetimes.
i really appreciate those individuals who have invested their time in making all this possible and readable.
after nfl season i will see you all on nba and financials threads with nba picks and binary options trading as well as in all the places you all know.
 
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Posted: #2457
please rad live instead of leave above in a row 12
 
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Posted: #2458
Phixer you do understand that nobody really cares if you keep posting or not. You run at around 50% with your picks dude......that's not special. Stop promising to stop posting, just stop now. Nobody cares dude.
 
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Posted: #2459
thegrants
you care and you care so much that you chose to display it by clicking on the mans thread and out of being disgruntled in your life
and probably a constant loser in gambling

you want attention you want the people that follow phixer and respect his opinion to jump on you in defense of him or you want some from phixer. what is gonna amount to? nothing but useless words.

this is a great thread and a must check for most.
it kills me that people even waste there time to try and bring a negative vibe on a thread on the internet. for what?
you need to go address the probls thats causing you to act like an attention seeking bietch.
i guarantee your a regular to his thread and probably tailed the plays he lost now your mad and its all his fault. act like a man
read and move on follor or drop some helpful info simple as that.
were all here to try and make some money all on the same team same goal.

hate to come across as a phixer rescue guy like i see on this thread all the time
but sometimes you got to stick ip for a good thing. there is a reason this thread has so many views

good job phixer keep rollin brother.
 
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Posted: #2460
Well said Knight... This is a marathon, not a sprint. And Phixers proven that he's consistently been on the winning side... So it's dumb to berate the man if you're mad that you tailed one of his losing picks.

Even if you don't like Phixes picks, the conversation and discussion in this thread has been titillating and intriguing in it's own right. A lot of people collectively learning to look at sports wagering in a different perspective... And that's something that you just can't troll.


 
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Posted: #2461
Totally agree Knight703.  Love the Phixer.
 
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Posted: #2462
Totally agree Knight703.  Love the Phixer.
 
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Posted: #2463
So you retired?
 
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Posted: #2464
Quote Originally Posted by Thegrants82:

Phixer you do understand that nobody really cares if you keep posting or not. You run at around 50% with your picks dude......that's not special. Stop promising to stop posting, just stop now. Nobody cares dude.
as much as it may surprise you  - i do understand your point and agree that all those people threatening to leave are pathetic. but if you read good amd the whole post  - you'll understand my point that leaving is no option for me as long as i maintain winning and profitability. lets forget that u missed my percentage by mere 12% and it stands at 62% overall and 83% at the playoffs - but that's not the point. i appreciate your effort writing here and spending some of your valuable time in my thread. please have some negative input from time to time so it will not be all lovy dubby here.  hugs
phixer
 
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Posted: #2465
nfl record 2013-2014

regular season      45-35-1  +2,625$

playoffs                 5-1-1     +2,525$

----------------------------------------------------------

total nfl       50-36-2    +5,150 $
 
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Posted: #2466
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

as much as it may surprise you  - i do understand your point and agree that all those people threatening to leave are pathetic. but if you read good amd the whole post  - you'll understand my point that leaving is no option for me as long as i maintain winning and profitability. lets forget that u missed my percentage by mere 12% and it stands at 62% overall and 83% at the playoffs - but that's not the point. i appreciate your effort writing here and spending some of your valuable time in my thread. please have some negative input from time to time so it will not be all lovy dubby here.  hugs
phixer
please correct that as the regular season stands at 56.2%, playoffs at 83.3% and overall at 58.1%. 

 
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Posted: #2467
Phixer is a good dude, when people get a following some haters come out of the woodwork trying to bring the man down, i personally dont give a CRAP about hater, as i see it, if you dont have any, your not doing a good enough job.. 
 
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Posted: #2468
You sir have opened my eyes, thank you very much.  I can not bet in game or half times as you do through my local but I still enjoy your selections and of course the criteria u r using.
 
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Posted: #2469
 
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Posted: #2470
Quote Originally Posted by Thegrants82:

Phixer you do understand that nobody really cares if you keep posting or not. You run at around 50% with your picks dude......that's not special. Stop promising to stop posting, just stop now. Nobody cares dude.

..That doesn't look like a 50% capper to me. 
 
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Posted: #2471
that grants guy is just some loser
 
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Posted: #2472
Quote Originally Posted by phixer:

i feel like i can retire now. not from betting, but from posting. why? i think i have achieved - we have achieved the most important thing about any business youre getting into: understanding it right and measuring up to it with your skills and capabilities. we made a long way from people thinking were crazy to the current standing and if you ask me - that is even more important in a long run.
but no. i am not crying "hold me here" and i wont retire from posting as i think that everyday there are new individuals ready to rush in with their hard earned dollars and put them at the feet of vegas. i just wanted to stress the point how much satisfaction i get from the fact the message sunk in many minds and also from the fact that i found out i am not alone and there are many who had the same perspective about sportsbetting much before i came.
i once again wanna thank you all for being part of this second to only sportsmavin's million and a half views thread and for the time and intelligence invested in your comment and readings.
my special thanks go to those who over the period have repeatedly proved to me that trolling is something we can all tolerate and leave with in peace and humorous ways and thank all the trolls and sons of trolls for making it possible for us to understand that we all are one big soul divided into fragments and have million different faces at each and every given period of our lifetimes.

You really think 750,000 views is from more than 5,000 people? Probably 1500 crazy people hitting F5! your not going to stop posting because you love the attention!

 
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Posted: #2473
Quote Originally Posted by MLMaster:

You really think 750,000 views is from more than 5,000 people? Probably 1500 crazy people hitting F5! your not going to stop posting because you love the attention!


 make it 1501
thanks for joining.
 
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Posted: #2474

I could care less what the guy plays. He is a blogger. BFD! He hits some, waits until the last second and rants and raves.

Im sorry just giving a play, and keeping your record, isn't that big of a deal. I wanted to see why someone has that many views.

He kept the same thread all season now over 18 weeks, and its stupid! who cares?

 
 
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Posted: #2475

He will be back on here with a 500 word essay about "trolls" and some political type speech and declare a winner.

Funny stuff. He is so proud of 63% or whatever. So subtract the house and he is up 3%. cool

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