Went 1-2 last week - playoff posted record is 2-5. Let's look at some numbers:
Wash 3 17 30 3 7 25
-5 Phil 2 29 10 1 4 26
Line opened at -5 currently -6. Over under opened at 48 currently 47 - 46.5. Wash is better in Off passing at 17 vs 29 and sched strength at 25 vs 26. Phil is better in rushing off at 2 vs 3; rushing def 10 vs 30; passing def 1 vs 3 and sagarin rank 4 vs 7. I also looked at post season ranks -and it reflects the same, however, some of the numbers are closer vs the regular season data above. Basically - the pattern is the same.
I compared the scenario above with playoff data - i had 2 situations that had the same scenario but different lines - one was when Tenn vs baltimore - Tenn was a 9.5 dog and they pulled the upset 28-12. The numbers in that game reflect close to the game we have today. The other game was when Phil played NO - NO took it 14-20, NO opened as a 7.5 fav.
I also looked at Regular season data and it's mixed. My plays:
1. Wash +6
2. Teaser Wash +12 to Buff +7.5 -120
3. small parlay Wash ML +200 to Under 47
Good luck all
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