Pittsburgh - 1 1/2 @ Indy

what a job by tomlin  

@Wizerguy

OKay, I read your case for revenge being a part of sports' psychology twice. I would say that to the modern day player, money is the key motivator that they are all primarily focused on. How will my athletic efforts benefit me and mine has their total attention.  

In the players' mindset, since they are considered a piece of meat with a wallet (have you ever been to Thailand) , they want that wallet filled to the brim.

Of course the coaches want the players to be motivated for each and every game and they play the 'we're not respected bulletin board material game' but is it effective? That is debatable. Mahomes and Brady had the instinct of leadership and a huge knack for winning games and motivating their teammates but they also were paid top dollar (in Brady's case from outside endorsement deals). 

I always liked the Chuck Noll approach that: 'If I have to motivate a player, I will fire him'. To Noll pro American football was strictly a business cut and dried. In those old school days (1970s) the Steelers did have revenge in mind when they played the Raiders whom they despised. 

I would add that revenge plays a big part in human affairs in general (I wish it didn't).

As far as this game being a revenge game for the Steelers because of their loss last year? I don't buy it because even with the loss, they made the playoffs and many of the current Steeler starters on offense and defense were not even on the team last year. Peace and health, 

so true.  

the more I look at this game, the more I like the colts, they have a big advantage in yards per play differential 

Not sure yet if I will play or pass here

BOL whatever you do 

@Biscuit

@Buffalobob89074

 As I said.. Revenge for "coaches" and players. Lets not leave out the coaches in your summation. Tomlin and crew were on the field( sidelines) last year,  and as so far as saying many current Steelers starters on offense and defense were not on the team last year, Im not buying that because many current offensive and defesnsive starters were on the team last year: George Pickens, Naja Harris, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Joey Porter Jr, and most importantly , TJ Watt. Yes they made the playoffs , is that the goal, to be content to make the playoffs and then get blown out by Buffalo in their last game of the year. 

   Yes, of course  money is a key motivator and what they are all primarliy focused on and how thier athletic efforts will benefit them and their familiy. That goes with any career., it does with mine. ( my real job). The term motivation doesnt live in a box. 

   From my exprience, because Im the one betting these games. Revenge games / rematches,  call it whatever you want, or dont call it. I have my methods and documented history logs that shows at a high clip that it works for me. Mind you,  Pitt is not the only game in town this week avenging a lopsided DD loss. Theres a bigger picture out there in the weeks to come. This week..  my numbers align for 2 ( below), even though there are a few more avenging teams out there. ie Jack @ Texans, Minny @ GB..a few other divison matchups.  I tend to not play the 1st div gm of the season , and wait for the rematch..  ie Revenge..lol. Peace and health brother. Have a great season 

1. Pitt @ Indy

2. Philly @ Tampa Bay  ( Philly BIG)

The pros are on Indy, and the squares are on the Steelers.  Pretty obvious why if you think about it.

I really love when teams become one dimensional (pass or run, offense or defense).  To me, this is the single biggest edge in NFL handicapping.  For instance - the Eagles.  If they cant run, they cant win.  You might include the Ravens also, and you can certainly include the Colts.

Anthony Richardson is so bad, I mean not bad - but absolutely horrific at making what is becoming an NFL necessity (because defenses are giving it more and more), the 10 yard pass.  Maybe the worst in history.  So the Colts will be able to score in games they can run - period - and run when the defense knows they have to run.  That is a tough proposition, even with a top 5 OLine.

So the Steelers come in with the 5th best (adjusted) rush defense in the NFL, and they will be able to put a lot of focus on the running game because they know what is coming.  If the Colts can stay in 3rd and 3 or 4, or avoid 3rd downs altogether - they have a shot.  But what happens when it is 3rd and 10?  Richardson is going to make some bad throws - and if you bet the Colts you have to hope that these bad throws arent to someone in Black and Gold.

The Steelers are vey pedestrian on offense, we all know that - but they have been surprisingly average through the air.  And the Colts defense is a bottom third defense, and they dont get pressure - so I wouldnt be surprised if the Steelers are able to be moderately successful on offense.

Sounds like I am making a case for the Steelers.  What is holding me back is the spot - and the consistency of Fields and the offense.  Could the Colts win 14-10?  Yes.  Could they win 31-X?  I dont think so.  So will the Steelers score 17+ in this game?  I think that is the key to deciding whether to put you money down o not.

It is a lean to the Steelers for me - but since I am not betting - I hope the Colts beat them to set up better opportunities down the road to fade Indy, although they have an incredibly easy three game run (Jax, TN, Mia) before playing the Texans.

Playing a lottery ticket with Richardson or Fields. 

I placed on IND TT u20 (-105)

I have to fade Tomlin here.

@Wizerguy

@vanzack

@TumblingDice75

@JoseAlonso787

@Onthereal

 Cheers and all the best, 

At first glance this line looks too low to me, and is likely there to lure in Pittsburgh money from Joe Public. Colts are the play..

Everything you said was good till the Brady part . It's Phony baloney if he was any good Pats would have won more than 6 SBs he was set up every year in division with 3 bottom feeders for 18 years 

Keep in mind not anything like the other sports you don't have to win multiple series you only have to win 3 games  and he did it against garbage at the time.

The Pats phony dynasty out the 32" teams 28' of them had no chance the league was non competitive.

Brady was outplayed by the opposing teams QB practically every game that's including when the Pats won.

Put Mahomes on that Pats team with all multiple easy chances he wins 15 SBs 

Brady's the luckiest athlete of all time he's a big phony. 

With Richardson you'll see some flashes of him making some runs or throwing a bomb but he's inaccurate most of the time I think he stinks , you always have to bet against this guy .

GL Buddy 

Najere is playing.

Pitt -2.5

@Silverstones

Hope all is well. Tomlin as a road or home favorite has a tendency to play down to the level of competition. It is such an up and down league it is probably not fair to hang this on him though. Consistency just isn't there for any team which makes it a walk on the wild side to even bet these games. 

One thing I marvel at, is that Fields and his offense have dominated TOP in all three games and now they play the team that is dead last in TOP in the whole league and the line is only 1.5? I would bet you anything that the Colts will be able to run on the Steelers but if not it will be a Pitts' blowout. I will sit this one out but today, if forced, I would bet the Colts despite their QB sucking so bad. 

BOL and do you see any side that you like this week? 

@vanzack

"Anthony Richardson is so bad, I mean not bad - but absolutely horrific at making what is becoming an NFL necessity (because defenses are giving it more and more), the 10 yard pass. Maybe the worst in history"

Agree 100%. I've watched all his games this year, and he's holding the team back. His o line is giving him all the time in the world on top of it.

If we want analytical proof: 

He's ranked 35th in EPA+CPOE composite. Bryce Young is 34th for reference. 

@Buffalobob89074

I like your Pittsburgh bet  I think Fields is better than Williams. Chicago should have kept him , good for him to get out of there.

I like the Jets lay the points  Rodgers will want to put up points for his buddy Hackett who he feels was disrespected in Denver and I think noodle arm Nix sucks 0 Tds 4 INTs....  4 INTs and he could have easily had 3 more if Tampa made the plays , 4 INTs and this guys only throwing short .

Denver's a better team with Stidham but the coach had to get involved with the draft pick. Its always the new shinny toy at Christmas .

Despite the injuries to receivers ill still take Matthew Stafford and Rams +3 Bears are fade material in my mind especially as a favorite.

I'm on Philly this week Tampa was so pathetic last Sunday plus their playing at Atlanta Thursday Night you know how I like going against teams that have to play in 4 days.

Best of Luck Buffalo Bob 

I forgot to add my 5th pk I never bet 4 games cause you have to go 3-1 to make money  I always bet 1 2 3 or 5 never 4 

San Francisco - 10.5 

Indy all the way

Pitt loses 1st

@Silverstones

 The only bet I have is Ravens - Won't touch the Steelers this week as I am leery of that line. 

Nice thread Bob some very good insight and nice to see the folks who dropped in very very respectful and on point with their views. This is how it should be,good luck to everyone yhis weekend. 

I am not betting this game but if I was given the funky line I would bet on the better overall team.

Good luck all

Tis a rarity 

I went through first 3 weeks on ATS  maybe I missed one I think its accurate it looks like this.  42 - 4 -2 

The winner of the game covered the spread 42 times the loser covered 4 times and there were 2  pushes 

You get the picture , pick the winner of the game and you'll cover the spread .

See nothing fishy with the line it opened at 1.5 and the money moved the line up to 2.5 . home field usually worth up to 3 points .

What happens happens but the lines saying Pittsburgh's a better team can you argue with that ?  

The point I want to make is the opening lines come from power rankings and usually up to 3 points adjusted to the home team that's where the lines come from then the money moves the line.

Their not pulling these lines out of their a s s to trick people it simple math based on power ranking

If you have have a problem any lines then your own perception of the teams power ranking differs that's all there is to it  you could be right or wrong .