PLAY: Jacksonville @ Atlanta (write up)

Let’s look at the probable strategies of both teams:

Jacksonville would love nothing more than to win this game by slowing it down and cramming MJD down the Falcons throats all game long.  Jacksonville’s Mel Tucker might as well be coaching a superbowl each week for the remainder of the season.  He has been given the thumbs up to interview for the HC position at the season’s end.  Will Tucker go for what he would prefer, or what makes the most sense?  Atlanta has a susceptible secondary, but a stellar run defense ranked 5^th in the league.  Will Tucker let Blane Gabbert start out throwing to catch the Falcon’s in surprise and attack their Achilles heel? And how about Mike Smith? Is he going to unleash Matty Ryan’s arm vs a excessively beat up secondary of the Jags?  hmmmmmmmm

Breakdown of standard game strategies:  Jacksonville runs 63.7 offensive plays per game / Atlanta runs 66.9 offensive plays per game.  Jacksonville controls an average of 30:42 TOP (last 3 32:03), and Atlanta has averaged 31.44 (last 30:06).

 Jacksonville runs the ball 49.15% of their offensive plays (43.14% last 3), while Atlanta runs 42.07% (and only 37.88% in the last 3 games)

About Mel Tucker:  Tucker was named Defensive Coordinator in 2009.  In 2008 the Jags were ranked 17^th overall in the NFL, Tuckers Jacksonville squad was ranked 23^rd overall after his inaugural season of 2009, in 2010 the Jags D dropped to 28^th of 32 teams, now in 2011 his unit’s ranking jumped to a whopping 4^th overall in the NFL.  This defensive unit has allowed only 19.4 pts per game (7^th in the NFL), and only 302 yards per game (4^th in the NFL).  Is this defense as good as it appears in the rankings, or is there more to the story?  Let’s look at who the Jags played this season.  The Jags average opponent rankings in pts. Per game is 14^th.  The Jags have a substantially better run stopping group than they do pass stopping.   Vs teams that are ranked 10^th in passing, or higher, the Jags have given up an average of 335.5 yards per game and 21 pts per game. 

Jags defensive trends:  The Jags D was scoured by Phillip Rivers passing attack, and the running game went uninhibited as well.  In that game the Jags we down 5 defensive starters.  During the second half the MNF announcers were doing their best to keep us from turning on Big Bang Theory reruns. 

Last weeks win over Tampa was not the offensive prowess it may look like…. tampa turned the ball over 7 times, nuff said. 

San Diego game: Rivers completed 79% of his passes for 3 scores and almost 300 yards in the air.  This opened up the running game for SD to average a stellar 5.3 yards per carry.  Ryan Mathews averaged 8.6 yards per carry on 13 attempts.

Recent injuries to the Jags D:  Rashean Matis (CB/IR), , John Chick (DE/IR), Matt Roth (DE/OUT), and Aaron Kampman (DE/IR), Derek Cox (CB/IR), Will Middleton (CB/IR).  They have been so banged up in the secondary as of the last month or so that they signed a corner that was released by Tampa Bay (that says it all) in August, and benched him during the TB game in lew of Morgan Trent was signed about a month ago.  In short, I have no clue what Tucker is going to do with this ‘patch work’ secondary, and cannot see how the Jags are going to possibly be able to pressure Matty ‘Ice’ with any semblance of consistency tonight.

MJD chasing the elusive rushing title: The offensive line of the Jags have stated as a matter of factly that their focus is to get MJD the rushing title.  He is in a battle with Philadelphia’s L. McCoy, yet against the lowly Buc’s MJD only averaged 3.1 ypc (vs the Buc’s 28^th ranked rush D that gave up 4.6 per attempt this season.  Why is that?  No threat of being passed on.  Though Blane Gabbert broke a rare 200+ passing yards vs the Buc’s there is still an opponent’s desire to make the Jags beat them with Gabbert’s arm, so they load the box.

Let’s look at Atlanta’s rushing defense:

Atlanta opponent rushing yds per attempt (not counting the 74 Diangelo Williams run)  23-157 car, 44-162 texans,  Minnesota (toby gerhart season rushes 81 with a 4.2 ypc average) 24-64….. if not for that one run Atlanta’s defense  would be 90 rushes for 3.4 ypc over their last 3 games.  This would have them ranked in a 4 way tie for 4^th best in the NFL over the last 3 games.  (this is going against teams some very good rushing teams –ypc/ranking)  Minnesota Carolina 5.1/ranked 3^rd , Houston 3.8/13^th, and Minnesota  5.2/2^nd.

Mike Smith: One thing you have to give to Mike Smith; he always closes out a regular season better than he starts it.  This is on the forefront of my mind because last season I started playing him that way, and it has put money in my pocket.  I see nothing but proof that this will once again be the case (stats/rankings improving over last 3 games compared to the season)  Atlanta has improved in the last 3 games over their season in:  Opponent yards per game, opponent 3^rd downs per game, opponent 4^th downs per game, opponents 3^rd down conversion %, opponent pts per game, offensive TD’s per game.

QB’s:  Gabbert surpassed the 200 yard mark last week, but had an abysmal 72.4 passer rating; though it is an improvement over his season average of 65.  Matty Ice had a 120 rating last week, up from his average 88 rating.  Ryan’s TD/INT ration is 23/12, while Gabbert’s is 10/9.  Both will be going against somewhat venerable secondary’s but Matty Ice is the substantially better QB with more to play for…and an added bonus is that Ryan is not terrified of being contacted by pass rushers.  Speaking of pass rushing…Atlanta is ranked only 24^th in defensive sacks this season, but they are quietly below the ‘stats radar’ with 23.8% hits/hurries/sacks per opposing pass rush this season(between Jonathan Babineaux and John Abraham)—that should be enough to terrify Gabbert to the point of an upset stomach as you are reading this.  Jacksonville is not big on sacks (tied for 22^nd ranked), and have no substantial hits/hurries/sacks leaders to boast of.  With the DE’s injury situation in JAX… Matty Ice should have enough time to have a tea party on passing plays.

Trends/season tendencies: Jacksonville has lost by 14pts only 2 times (and 2 pushes) this season.  Atlanta has won by 14 pts only 1 time (1 push). 

Squares/Sharps: 52.6% of the Squares are on the Falcons, but it seems a lot of the money (Sharps) are heavy on them.  53% of the Public is on the Over, yet it seems the bigger money is on the Under.

Atlanta injuries:  the most predominant injury is to Michael Turner.  Though he will most likely play, he is on a short week, and nursing a groin injury.  I don’t see him getting more than 19 hand offs tonight.  His back up is Jason Snelling, who will most likely be used intermittently on first downs, pass blocking, and receiving.  Rookie Jacquizz Rodgers may also see a little more running plays than normal due to the short week.

Summary:

Let’s really look at all of this as a whole.  Jacksonville: We have a interim coach who I believe is in way over his head as a HC—mediocre results, and tutored under sub-par mentors (Del Rio and Crennel).  He has a banged up team with a great running back and decent run blocking O line.  His QB is not qualified to be at this level, is scared to death of contact, and is going to go against a fairly healthy and proficient pass rushing team with a weak secondary.   His running game is going to be focused on by one of the better run defenses in the NFL.  He needs to string together a second win to up his case for the HC position.  I think he will attempt over 50% passes tonight, especially in the early game.  If he can get a lead he is going to try to slow the game down with MJD.  Most of the passing attempts should be to the flat (screens), as well as short 7 yds or less down field to loosen up the Falcons boxed line.

Falcons:  Mike smith has the better QB, and less of a running game due to Turners groin, and lack of a proven back up which both back ups combined averaged 5.4 carries per game this season, so we won’t see a whole lot of either running the ball.  Smith is an exceptional late season HC, and he will attack where the Jags are weak, and avoid his weakness…. He also is going to be passing the majority of the first half trying to get an early lead and then sit back and slow the game down and let Gabbert make the mistakes he is destined to make.

Variables:  Looking at key unforeseen injuries, what would really throw this first half (obviously, I am interested in the first half due to the illogical process of predicting this games beyond 2 quarters thus far.  If Gabbert went down in the first half, it just can’t hurt Jacksonvilles passing game too much—could even help it.  If MJD went down, Gabbert would surely pass even more than I am anticipating, to it helps on the Over first half if he gets lucky, or tosses int’s giving the ball back to Ryan.  If Turner goes down, Matty Ice throws more than I am already anticipating; good for the Over first half.  If Ryan went down, that would hurt the Over play (first half), though I will take my chances there knowing that the Jags will not even touch him very much in the entire game.   If any key defensive injuries hit, well that will obviously help the Over play.

Scoring:

First quarter:  Atlanta 10  Jags 3

Second quarter (halftime score) Atlanta 17    Jags 6

Jacksonville @ Atlanta Over 21 first half

I think the second half will have less scoring than the first.

bol ks