@Indigo999
Thanks! the bye vs no-bye basically covers it anyways
I like fading home teams that run the ball....I've never seen it discussed anywhere else. I would almost certainly be betting on the Ravens and the 49ers if they were playing on the road, instead of being a home favorite.
The two home team quarterbacks I'm not sold on....probably super strange to some as they will be probably numbers 1 and 2 in the MVP voting this year....I like the road teams' quarterbacks more. Could Jackson and/or Purdy go off on Sunday?....yeah they could.
I like choleric coaches on the road...the General Paton types excel in hostile environments, which is Dan Campbell, and then we have a coach in the Chiefs that has the single best road against-the-spread record in NFL history, with a quarterback that is 9-0-1 ATS as an away dog.
Those things to me trump the obvious superiority of the rest of the home teams over their road team counterparts.....the coach and the quarterback are basically the king and queen on the chessboard,....all the rest of the pieces are the underlings and collectively they don't add up to those two pieces.
I like fading home teams that run the ball....I've never seen it discussed anywhere else. I would almost certainly be betting on the Ravens and the 49ers if they were playing on the road, instead of being a home favorite.
The two home team quarterbacks I'm not sold on....probably super strange to some as they will be probably numbers 1 and 2 in the MVP voting this year....I like the road teams' quarterbacks more. Could Jackson and/or Purdy go off on Sunday?....yeah they could.
I like choleric coaches on the road...the General Paton types excel in hostile environments, which is Dan Campbell, and then we have a coach in the Chiefs that has the single best road against-the-spread record in NFL history, with a quarterback that is 9-0-1 ATS as an away dog.
Those things to me trump the obvious superiority of the rest of the home teams over their road team counterparts.....the coach and the quarterback are basically the king and queen on the chessboard,....all the rest of the pieces are the underlings and collectively they don't add up to those two pieces.
Andy Reid is 6-5 SU and 8-3 ATS in the playoffs vs. teams with a winning percentage > 73. Adding "wins < o:wins" - SU 3-2, ATS 5-0.
That is a small sample size, so don't go crazy. Good luck to all.
Andy Reid is 6-5 SU and 8-3 ATS in the playoffs vs. teams with a winning percentage > 73. Adding "wins < o:wins" - SU 3-2, ATS 5-0.
That is a small sample size, so don't go crazy. Good luck to all.
I think a lot of people don't embrace the opening lines oddsmakers put on games. Instead they beleive they can come up with their own line not realizing oddsmakers have a vast number of resources that as individuals they can't replicate. I learned a long time ago - take your ego out of it and embrace the opening line as they are smarter than me. On top of that the methodology they use to come up with the opening line is the best kept secret - we speculate as to what they use to come up with it but no one knows what the weights of the various data are. Anyways great post.
BOL to ya guys and gals
I think a lot of people don't embrace the opening lines oddsmakers put on games. Instead they beleive they can come up with their own line not realizing oddsmakers have a vast number of resources that as individuals they can't replicate. I learned a long time ago - take your ego out of it and embrace the opening line as they are smarter than me. On top of that the methodology they use to come up with the opening line is the best kept secret - we speculate as to what they use to come up with it but no one knows what the weights of the various data are. Anyways great post.
BOL to ya guys and gals
Plays:
1) ***Lions +6'
2) ** Chiefs +4..................W
3) ** Chiefs UNDER 44'.......W
Since when have the Ravens decided that beating up their opponent was more important than winning a football game?.....they played like a bunch of juvenile delinquents.
Lamar Jackson still hasn't proven that he can win playoff football.
Plays:
1) ***Lions +6'
2) ** Chiefs +4..................W
3) ** Chiefs UNDER 44'.......W
Since when have the Ravens decided that beating up their opponent was more important than winning a football game?.....they played like a bunch of juvenile delinquents.
Lamar Jackson still hasn't proven that he can win playoff football.
Yea… it was same old ravens… how can they vote Lamar mvp after mahomes just did that on the road… and Lamar did that…. No comparison. Good picks indigo.
Yea… it was same old ravens… how can they vote Lamar mvp after mahomes just did that on the road… and Lamar did that…. No comparison. Good picks indigo.
Beautiful work, buddy. Keep killing it!
Beautiful work, buddy. Keep killing it!
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