I see all of these same game parlays out there. A lot have player props, and team props that seem to be very correlated.
I have never placed one of these, and am not a prop guy but...
Can anyone explain how books are allowing these, and your experience? Is this something I need to put on my radar?
Sites like Fandual and draft kings have them every weekend, usually with a 30 to 50% profit boost. usually play them with altered odds, such as point spreads or totals and even passing yards. with the boost usually win 2 to 1. would recommend just putting a few bucks with the boost for a big score
The correlated ones like yardage and tds don't increase your parlay odds like you think they would if you have more than one yardage or td proposition on the same player. They'll let you add them to your parlay, but the odds don't go up.
Of course it should be on your radar. I know you don't like parlays, but your a math/odds guy. If the wager makes sense nothing else matters.
I have a local with an offshore website that lets you play certain props and you can parlay some of them, definitely heavily juiced, but mine are capped at small wager amounts around $200-$300 max. Definitely a lot of extra studying because of the situational plays. But sometimes fun. I enjoy your write ups and analysis because I just don’t have the time to dig deep all the time.
first year for me also in the Circa Millions, making me study more.
@vanzack
I play them on Thurs, Mon night games thru my book betmgm.
I usually do 3-6 items such as passing yardage over by the qb, rushing yards by qb or rb, and WR yardage and catches.
Usually get a 25-50% profit boost.
I've played them 5 times so far and 3-2.
Usually put 25-50 up each time.
I’ve been making 5-6 leg SGP on prime time games and been very successful playing the juiced lower totals. I hit a big one last night with McCaff o50 rush, o25 receive, Purdy o200 passing, Ceedee Lamb o40 receiving, Aiyuk o40 receiving, game o34.5 .. a lot of times you’ll lose, but it’s a fun lottery ticket when u win
So how are the overall odds calculated? Like a normal parlay?
Obviously, if you are betting Purdy to be over 200 yards passing, it is correlated that his receivers should also be over and vice versa.
Just cant imagine books are giving away money.
@vanzack
for example it’d be like purdy o200 -300, McCaff o50 rush -340 etc.. you just stack them until you hit that +400-500 range. it’s tough bc players do get hurt or a team stops throwing/running and then you’re boned. certain teams are betters suited for this for skilled positions .. 49ers, fins, lions, eagles
I never play them....the odds are horrendous and I think they target these young no experience gamblers. Van you are a sharp math guy
go to DK and click the green box SGP and put in some wagers so you can see the odds without actually entering the bet. I don't think you
will like the odds but maybe you see +EV but I'm thinking you will be shaking your head to the noooooooo........
@vanzack
I think they lower the odds increase if the parlay is correlated. They know not to.
But then a bunch of books offer boosts on odds. It's like when your shopping at the grocery store and EVERYTHING is on sale when everything is marked up anyway. You think that you're getting a deal when you really aren't.
I don't do any of these, but I can imagine that a very select few players are doing well figuring out correlated parlays and such.
But for the most part, the books have to be raking in money on sgp's, otherwise they wouldn't advertise them so much.
The more legs you add the more the payout, which pays more but decreases your probability of winning.
Draftkings is so confident that most people will lose them that they'll often give you $25-100 "risk free" where if you lose a SGP they'll give you a free bet. But most people lose the free bets anyways, since you only get back the winnings and not the stake if you were to straight bet it (hint, never do that).
During the summer, Draftkings was allowing risk free baseball parlays for $10-25 every single day. I played some. Often times I'd hit the side and the total, but I'd get screwed over by 1 of the 4 hitters or so that hit .280 or even .300+ that don't get a hit. IMO they are a waste of money to do for anything more than a few bucks, unless all you're picking is the side and the total.
The one thing that really annoys me is that they have a computer that calculates the probability of a side + total outcome, and the majority of the time it's not standard payouts. For example, a two game parlay is suppose to be 2.6 to 1. But the bookmakers think that if you're able to hit a side correctly, sometimes it only warrants 2.2 or 2.4 or 2.5 to 1, which is BS. In other words, you don't get actual odds like if you were to bet 10 things from separate games, which makes sense on some of them. Like yeah if you take the Raiders tonight, and you have Jacobs over rushing or Adams over receiving, and Raiders score first that's correlated so it makes sense that they'd take it down.
TLDR - Same game parlays are very hard to win, especially if you keep adding random legs. It's hard enough to pick the side or the total. Picking who scores first, who gets in the red zone first, who has the first TD or any TD, just too much unless you have a crystal ball into the future. But I think they're the bread and butter for recreational bettors that want to try and hit a big one only risking a few bucks while they watch the game.
They can pay like 200-1 or higher if you pick some lottery type stuff. Like if you had Kittle 2 TDS (he had 3), plus san fran and over it probably would have paid a ton. If you had Kittle 2 TDs and Turpin TD with San Fran plus the over I imagine it would have paid like 100-1 at least.
To clarify, IMO if you don't already bet them, it's probably a waste of time to try unless you don't mind wasting a few bucks every game.
But I do think there is a benefit to looking at game props in general so you get a feel of what Vegas thinks is fair.
But if you do that, you'll inevitably want to try an SGP after using time to look at that stuff.
Just consider them lottery, like a scratcher or a pick 3 ticket.
What state are you in ? These are great to place
I’ve done a same game parlay to bet mcaffery anytime TD and Niners ML at plus odds and it’s been scorching hot
youre just playing them wrong if your hunting long shots … if you can build a 2-3 leg and get -130 to +200 odds it’s actually not that bad …
kittle to score a td and niners ml paid +385 on barstool … placed 1U and was pleased
Pretty much this. There's a reason every site is plastered with pre-made SGPs. Not only that but like other people mentioned, you can get at least one 30-50% SGP boost on almost every site. Not only that lol alotta sites give you daily sweat free SGPs. They have such an edge on these they will let you play them risk free and give you your bet back in bonus bets when you lose. Literally give you 2 shots they're so free for books. Buuuut... people love em man. They're fun for people to toss together 1 game lotto tickets. "Hey, Curry got Five 3s yet? Damn, was 1 Jefferson catch away from a grand!"
@vanzack
They are advertised on the front page of the websites for a reason. As you already know, most parlays are losers anyways. The books are not stupid though. They do not allow all props to be parlayed together. For example any “yes” or “no” bet cannot usually be parlayed. They also don’t always calculate the odds fairly as I’ve experimented punching in different options. Sometimes adding another leg to a parlay increases the odds only slightly even though the actual odds on the single play would come out much higher if they were parlayed (as in doing a money line parlay). I’ve had very little success with yardage/catches/attempts props. I’ve found that the books are extremely accurate with what they propose. Been burned by one yard or one catch enough to know it’s not for me. Player TD props have been the most profitable for me.
Only use Fan Duel so can't speak to the others Their computers appear to adjust the odds based on the correlation of the bets For example, if you take first quarter under and 1st half under you get low odds But the opposite is also true bet first quarter over and first half under you get much improved payouts. Don't pley them often unless I see an odd angle where it might make the odds pumped but I do play with the odds boost often Sometimes I play the alternate spreads and totals and big money line on favorites with something else (you need three legs on their promo) and with the odds boost you have a decent chance of making some bucks
One other thing about the boosted odds same game parlay sometimes they will give you a boost and one of the legs can be on another event, If the promo allows you to bet on games at different times of the day and you set the last leg on a later game you can set up some nice middles or hedges
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