Question for Vanzack and other analytical bettors

Van I hold you in high regards, and I often see you take the points, rather than moneyline, when you take a dog even when the points are under 3 (e.g. Alabama +2). I assume you've run the numbers, but could you give me your general rationale. Let's take yesterday for example the lines I had were alabama +2 (-110) or Alabama +115 ML.

On a $100 bet you return 115 on the ML or 91ish on the spread. 115 is 26.3% more than 91. So you're spending 26% more to push on a 2 point loss and win on a 1 point loss. You're obviously much more experienced than me on this so it's not an attempt to undercut, but a genuine curiosity because intuitively it seems to me that not nearly enough games end in a 1 or 2 point margin to justify the juice. 

To layer in another question on bet365 I get early payouts on ML bets when the team goes up 17 or more, so that could be another reason to go ML instead of spread when betting a less than 3 point underdog. I have had instances of the early payout hitting and the team still losing where that insurance has been useful.

95% of my posts here are finished sausage.  This is going to be a 5% how the sausage is made post.  If you aren’t interested in sausage making, skip this sure to be longwinded post….

Prerequisite #1: A fundamental to being a profitable sports bettor vs a rec (losing) sports bettor is that everything is designed to win over the long term.  Define long term as you want – but it is definitely not defined as “this bet”. So you need to throw out the idea that you want to win the single bet in front of you, and develop a repeatable process that gets you over the Mendoza line between winning and losing.  Profitability matters.  W/L record or short term results do not.

Prerequisite #2:  You need to understand and ACCEPT that the line / price pair are inextricably connected.  You cannot look at line without price, and you cannot look at price without line.  For the finished sausage, I throw out a line without a price when I post my picks.  But in the sausage making – they pair becomes one. 

The rec gambler says “I need to win this game tonight, and I need a line that will make me win tonight”.  They aren’t concerned with price, and they aren’t concerned about tomorrow.

Concept #1:  There is a "main line / price" combination for every game, and then there are "alt" or "derivative" spreads on every game.  This includes the ML!  The ML is just an alt spread / price combination.

Concept #2:  The main line / price combination usually has a lower house hold than other derivatives.  This means that at most single books - and if you have multiple outs and take the best line / price you can get on both sides - it almost always is going to be a lower spread between the two sides (house hold) than any derivative price, including the ML.

What a beginner or rec gambler should do:  Get familiar with key numbers, and minimize the juice (house hold) you pay.  This means having several books, and shopping for the lowest house hold line / price on the side you like.

What a next level gambler should do:  For each game, use a predictive model to develop your own key numbers unique to that specific game - and assign probabilities to those outcomes.  Then get the lowest line / price combination you can for those outcomes, and bet the one that is the cheapest - or best - related to the probability you assigned.

Remember - you dont necessarily care if you win THIS bet.  You care if you are PROFITABLE over the next 100 bets.  You have to get used to the idea that a lot of times you make sports bets that you think will lose, or have a greater than 50% chance of losing, because the payout (or price) makes it a long term good bet.

What would you rather do:  Place a wager on red at a roulette wheel with an even money payout (47% chance of winning), or place a wager on a single number (2.6% chance of winning) but it pays 50-1? 

The mistake most sports bettors make is falling in love with a line, without considering the price.  The say things like "this team is good up to -4", without ever talking about the price associated.  Lots of bets are good at -3 -110 that are not good at -3.5 -110.  

The price matters.  Period.  And it is ignored at a epidemic level in the sports gambling world.  But the price makes you profitable.

So on your Bama example...  It is simple.  You calculate the line / price value at +2.5 vs the line /price value at 0 (ML), and you bet whichever of the two is priced better.  And better doesnt mean the lowest price (-105 is lower priced than -106), it means the value of the line price combination.  You do this every day of your life.  When you buy toilet paper, you do mental calculations to say "I like Charmin, but it is $10.  The scratchy stuff is $5 usually, but it is on sale today for $2." and you make a decision based on the product / price combination.  Same thing here.

The easiest way to determine the line / price value for rec gamblers is to simply look at the house hold.  If the main line has a 16 cent spread (-108 on each side), and the ML has a 20 cent spread (-110 on each side), you should be betting the main line.  If you are more advanced, you can get more precise with assigning value that might overcome a higher house hold.

Wonderful stuff 

Do you have a favorite metric with football?

Where does DVOA and net yards per play rank for you in evaluating line/price?

With DVOA not available CFB is this partially a reason you bet smaller units there due to variance? 

Thanks in advance.

How anyone can ever hate on this man is beyond me. Thank you for sharing your wealth of knowledge with the ones that are listening.  Our most valuable asset is time, and for this man to spend a lot of his providing free knowledge is admirable. Vanzack is the biggest asset this site has ever seen. 

I've thanked you many times before, but it will never be enough. Happy New Year and thank you, again, for posting. 

@jhoss00

Agreed, thanks for the thorough response Van

Invaluable information, should be required reading for every new poster here. THE goat.

@jhoss00

 Agreed.  When Vanzack pulls back the curtain everyone should be paying attention if you are seriously interested in sports betting.  His information and the way he explains it is so valuable for the beginner like myself.  

thanks again Van

@vanzack

 Good stuff man

@jhoss00

@Tiltmachine23 

@vegasrebel417

 What they said..Thank you Vz

@vanzack

 You sir are a class act with sharing your knowledge and expertise on sports betting. I have bet on sports for years like a lot of people here and NEVER was successful like the very few guys like you who put in the work. I no longer bet and fortunate to live a decent life after retiring when I actually lost a couple of hundred thousand dollars gambling on whatever I could ( Vegas and sports betting ). But my point is for you to share what you know and how successful you have been doing this is very generous and I really believe you mean well. I know there are haters here that doubt your posts along with a lot more supporters but to give your time and knowledge to help guys to beat the bookies is very classy. I know that you really put in a lot of work and 95% of people can't do what you do nor are they willing to do what you do but to share your picks with the general public is astonishing. I recently came back to covers after about 8 years since I no longer sports bet and been following your posts and find you to be the most honest and upfront poster on this site. I just wish I have found your post back when I was gambling. This last post on price/ line makes too much sense and that what makes a successful sportsbettor. I would wish you good luck in future endeavors but I really don't think you need it. GOD BLESS Vanzack!!

@vanzack

 The legend behind your name does not do justice to what you provide to others. Thank you for sharing your knowledge! 

@vanzack
 

Dam, you are sharing gold and I cannot even post without doubling up! ????‍??

 The legend behind your name does not do justice to what you provide to others. Thank you for sharing your knowledge! 

@jhoss00

 Easy.  You not very successful at what you do till you have haters!

Thanks all.

Happy to discuss any of this further, or answer any other questions.

DVOA is the single best tool a rec gambler can use.  It is $59 a year.  I wish DVOA had recency sorting - like they did when it was FO - because when you get late in the season like we are now there isn't much value in weeks 1-8 stats mixed in and they can throw everything off.

I use DVOA as a sanity check - but my adjusted stats are self generated and run through many subjective and objective calculations.

I bet smaller units in CFB compared to NFL because I find in my personal case there is more variance.  That changes every year.  But for now - I do better in NFL than CFB.

"Remember - you dont necessarily care if you win THIS bet. You care if you are PROFITABLE over the next 100 bets. You have to get used to the idea that a lot of times you make sports bets that you think will lose, or have a greater than 50% chance of losing, because the payout (or price) makes it a long term good bet."

This is the key.  For me, I am 5 years in and we'll over 10,000 bets.  I proudly boast a 5 year profit at less than 50% win percentage.  

One more time, I lose more than I win and still make very good profits.  How?

I do not take points and games that would require taking points are 95% times a pass.  If my models show value over the book, I'll adjust to my line usually at an average of +150. 

To your point / question, over the long run ML makes you more money and lowers your break even.  Finishing my numbers this week on coin flips and will link the thread for NFL this season.

Finally it cannot be overstated enough, the biggest advantage we have over thr book is they have to set a line, but we don't have to buy it.  

Numbers headed into the final week on "coin flip" games.  Based on my PA book Sugarhouse so variance in games possible and not adding prices as it creates a shit stir amongst the board:

104 coin flip games (defined as 3 points or less)

55 times the favorite won and covered

40 times the dog won outright

5 times the dog lost, but covered

4 times the game landed on the number.

@vanzack

 Thanks for the response 

Keeping with the theme of the thread....

I posted earlier that line and price cannot be separated.  So seeing stats that are "-3 and less" is tough for me because so many games go off at -3 -120 or -3.5 EV.  But from a high level - good stuff and worth noting.

People always ask "what is the first thing I can do to get better at sportsbetting"....

Assuming "better" = "profitable"...

IT IS LINE SHOPPING AND REDUCING HOUSE HOLD.  Simple.  Way above handicapping.

Most people spend tons of time worrying about handicapping a game, then betting it at -110 or worse.  When they could be more profitable by flipping a coin and betting in to a 1 cent market at an exchange.

Think about that.

@unplucked_gem

104 coin flip games (defined as 3 points or less)

55 times the favorite won and covered

40 times the dog won outright

5 times the dog lost, but covered

4 times the game landed on the number.

 
Ignore the pushes

You went 45-55 if you bet the spread at -110.  Which gives you -1550.

betting the ml gives you 40-60. To match that -1550 you need to avg +111.25 on those MLs… which you proabably are, so those MLs are probably better than doing the straight bets..  In your specific sample betting pk+120 is better than +spread at -110.  Like vanzack says, number and price are forever interlinked

however, to break even you need to avg +150 at 40-60…

@williamwallace

I hear you and he's right  

Personally, I haven't paid juice for 3 years.  All of my plays are ML dogs or Alt lines favs.

^^THIS^^

I've come to the conclusion that I'm profitable because of the bets I don't make.  If I can't find a spot with +EV, I pass.