Random thoughts on Season, Teams, Players, Rules, and Playoffs

I think it was a very interesting and entertaining season.  

I am not a big fan of the new kickoff rules and the new onside kick rules.  I did not like moving the PAT kick back when they did that, but I understand why they do these things and they eventually get accepted and become a normal part of the game.

There were some surprises and some disappointments.  I feel like Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota and Washington were among the biggest surprises.  I think Cincinnati, Dallas, Atlanta, New Orleans, Miami, and San Francisco were some of the biggest disappointments.

I feel like there was less parity than in years past.  There were some very good teams and some very bad teams, with fewer average teams mixed in.  There were also fewer teams still vying for playoff spots going down the stretch.

But I also think the season was very exciting and I think the playoffs will be very exciting and somewhat wide-open, depending on how the particular matchups play out.

I think that Josh Allen will win the MVP but do note feel he really should, as I have written on here elsewhere.

Why is he better than Mahomes, Burrow, or Jackson?

I get that people love to watch him play because he is exciting.

But is he really better overall?

All three of them have a better WAR rating this year than Allen does.

Jackson and Burrow have better PAA/Play than he does.  Mahomes is right behind him.

Jackson has far better ANY/A than him, Burrow is right behind him.

Mahomes is still doing more with less than any of them and managing the team to wins.  

For example, in a 1-score game (+/- 8 points) in the 2nd half:

Burrow has a 120.6 rating, Jackson a 108.3 rating, and Allen a 107.4

When they are behind in the 2nd half -- Burrow 114.8, Jackson 109.4, and Allen 71.3 (small sample size, but has to be looked at)

When they are behind at any time -- Burrow 121.7, Jackson 107.0, and Allen 101.3.

Under pressure rating -- Jackson 105.1, Burrow 103.3 (the top two QBs) and Allen 85.5 (5th).

Yes, they are all 4 elite.  

But I could actually make the case that the distance between Burrow/Mahomes/Jackson and Allen is further apart this year than the Allen and Goff/Hurts/Darnold group.

But I like to watch him play and he has made improvements and Brady has helped the Offense, for sure.

The issue is that this year a better case can be made that Jackson deserves the MVP than last year. 

A better case can be made for Burrow than Allen. 

A case can be made for Mahomes, simply because he is Mahomes and is doing more with less.

But Allen will probably win it.  A large part of that is because people just think he finally 'deserves' it.  He is not necessarily outplaying the others and it cannot even be said he is more important to his team than the others are.

This is not to take anything away from Allen because he is having a fantastic year and the team looks very good.

If Allen does win it — good for him.  It shows how much he has improved and how much he means to his team.

There is an old saying that ‘defenses win championships’.  That does not apply nearly as much as it used to, or as much as folks tend to assume.

The NFL has become a much more offensive-driven league.  The emphasis has been put on the passing game over the running game.  Therefore, the QB has become so much more important than in years ago.

Certainly, a great (or even a good) defense helps.  Just as a good running game helps as well.  It is hard to win a championship with just a great passing game.  Cincinnati was the prime example of that this year.  They had the best passing game but one of the worst running games (actually a negative-rated efficiency running number), poor pass blocking and a bad defense.

So, the first thing is to get into the playoffs.  

A good offense is slightly more likely to get a team into the playoffs than a good defense.

Over the last 20 years, the top 5 offenses have made the playoffs 85% of the time, while the top 5 defenses have made the playoffs slightly less than 80% of the time.

For sure, a team can vastly improve down the stretch on defense and can lead the team in the playoffs — like the Giants did.

Or a good defense can simply shut down a great offense like the Patriots did the Rams, while the Rams not so good defense held a good Patriots offense to a low score.

You can see this even at the college level now.  

For example:

Nick Saban, Alabama’s seven-time championship-winning coaching mastermind, recently remarked, "It used to be that good defense beats good offense. Good defense doesn't beat good offense anymore."

But, if you have a well-balanced offense and a good defense it will certainly put you in a better position to win a championship.

Simply, because you can rely on the parts of the game that are working in each matchup, in order to advance through the playoffs.

One of the things I think is interesting to look at is the switch of four running backs and the eight teams involved and how this seemed to affect the team and the player involved.

For sure, a running back is not nearly as ‘valuable’ as they once were.  But they are still very important if a team has one that is motivated, stays uninjured, and is in an offense where he can take pressure off of the QB and open up the offense somewhat.

Leaving aside their pass-catching and blocking to just look at their effect on the running game is enlightening.

Sometimes a player can be unmotivated to play for a team that is rarely in the running for the playoffs.  Or a new coach may want to revamp the offense.  

Often, the RB is a position that is the first, or most affected.  Part of this is the lessening impact they have nowadays and some of it is simply due to the short playing-span they have.  You rarely see this impact at another position, like WR or TE, other than QB.

There are other efficiency numbers to look at, but just using WAR shows the impact of these four changes.

Henry is an all-time great RB.  He has never had his motivation questioned.

WAR 

2023 1.2 — 2nd  

2024 1.3 — 1st

Barkley is a phenomenal talent.  But the motivation and Giants offense can be questioned a bit.

WAR 

2023 -.3 — 32nd  

2024  .4 — 10th

Jacobs is a talent.  Maybe just needed a change.

WAR

2023 -.4 — 35th

2024  .7 — 6th

Mixon is decent.  But may be injury-prone and on the downhill side now.

WAR 

2023  .6 — 8th

2024 -.3 — 21st

Now look at the teams.  Sometimes these RBs may be the missing piece or was actually holding the team or the player back somehow.

BLT WAR

2023 1.8 — 2nd

2024 2.3 — 1st

GB WAR

2023 -.1 — 23rd

2024 1.3 — 4th

PHL WAR

2023 .2 — 19th

2024 1.1 — 6th

CIN WAR

2023 .7 — 10th

2024 -.2 — 24th

HOU WAR

2023 -.1 — 24th

2024 -.3 — 26th

TEN WAR

2023 1.7 — 3rd

2024 -.2 23rd

LV WAR

2023 -.7 — 29th

2024 -1.4 — 32nd

NYG WAR

2023 -1.1 — 32nd

2024 -.1 — 21st

Amazing to look at.  

Henry no doubt helped and was as consistent as always.

Barkley and Jacobs helped and seemed to be motivated with better teams.

Mixon did not seem to have any affect for the team and was less effective.

It seems to have helped BLT, GB and PHL but not HOU.

It hurt CIN, TN and LV but seemed to have helped NYG. 

With all of that being said as a preface, of sorts, these are the final numbers I have for each of the teams heading into the playoffs:

TEAM        RATING             OFF             DEF

BLT             17.7                  13.05             4.65

DET             13.5                   9.9               3.6

GB               12.9                   6.9                6.0

BUF             12.15                 7.95              4.2

PHL              12                     4.65              7.35

MIN              11.85                 5.7                6.15

DEN             11.55                 3.15              8.4

LAC              9.0                    3.75              5.25

KC                8.7                     5.1                3.6

PIT                8.1                     3.75              4.35

TB                 7.95                  7.35              .6

WAS             7.5                     6.6                .9

LAR               6.3                    3.6                2.7

HOU             5.4                    1.95               3.45

This is simply the final season numbers.  The last 5-6 games rolling averages would show some slight differences.  Like BLT and PHL defenses improving while LAC defense fell off a bit.  LAC and LAR offenses improved a bit while WAS and PIT offenses got worse.

It seems to me that if each team plays to their ability that BLT just has an overwhelming OFF and the DEF has improved enough to really help them in the playoffs.

I think Jackson has to have a good playoffs.  I have written a lot on his weaknesses and he does seem to have improved on them.  But it will be very interesting to see if they have improved enough in other areas on OFF now to offset some of his deficiencies he has shown in the playoffs.

DET will need their DEF to be consistent to overcome Goff’s inefficient times, and they will need Gibbs to stay hot as well.

GB is the most balanced team and has the most balanced OFF.  They have the ability to keep a game close, win it from in front or come from behind.

BUF will need Allen to be in top form through the playoffs.  I think he will could have a very tough first game with DEN.  They will also need their DEF to step up a bit.

PHL is a team that has been overly-reliant on their DEF and Barkley’s exploits.  They are going to need Hurts to play much better in order to win.  

MIN is another well-balanced team.  I think they will be fine if they can play with a lead.  I am not sure how dependable Darnold will be in the playoffs if they have to come from behind.  He is having a nice year but is inconsistent.

DEN has the best DEF and they should keep the game close.  They have the best PASS DEF and it is not close.  They also have the 3rd best PASS RUSH and a good RUN DEF.  Payton has done a great job with Nix — far better than I expected.  I have never been a huge Payton fan and think he is overrated a bit.  But he has done a lot to prove me wrong this year.  DEN is doing a lot to win games with that DEF and no running game or receiving game to be where they are.

LAC has been a disappointment to me.  Their DEF started off elite but has tapered off.  Herbert, I think is very good and can have a good run.  They are very lucky to be able to start the playoffs with a weak team.  If they win, maybe that can give them some confidence going forward.

KC has no running game.  What they do have is Mahomes.  They also have Reid coaching and a good defense.  They will have plenty of rest.  As long as they do not come out flat, they can beat anyone.  The experience and the motivation to win 3 SBs in a row is going to play a part.

PIT is team that is using smoke and mirrors and defense to keep the games close.  I am a well-acknowledged Tomlin apologist.  I always think he keeps his team motivated and gets as much out of the talent that he can.  If they are motivated and keep the game close — they have a chance.  Wilson still is an all-time great and has the experience, even though he has declined from his peak.  He still has enough left to manage a close game.  I think a lot comes down to how Jackson plays and if BLT balances their attack well enough with Henry and not have to ‘rely’ on Henry.

TB and WAS are pretty much the same to me.  They have two QBs that are having decent years but have been streaky.  But with no DEF they will ‘have to outscore’ their opponents— as the saying goes.

LAR has not been very good on either side of the ball this year.  BUT they have, amazingly enough, gotten better on BOTH sides of the ball down the stretch.  If there is a team that might be peaking at the right time — it could be them.  Stafford and the WRs will have to do it without much of a running game.

HOU is very fortunate to have a game they might be able to win to start with.  They are just not a good or consistent team on either side of the ball.  They are too streaky — intra-game and from game to game.

R22 I know you took quite some time to put this all together and I thank you.....Good stuff!

Raiders... Great stuff as usual. 

I've got a topic that probably few(?) people even care about.  And that's coaches, offensive/defensive coordinators being contacted by other teams about their coaching vacancy while the playoffs are on.  Seriously, if I was a Lions fan as an example, I'd be pissed at the thought/distraction of Ben Johnson or Aaron Glen being contacted by other organizations. 

It's a disservice to these organizations that have been successful throughout year, and are going to the playoffs

@Rush51

 Yessir.  I agree with you.  I also have never liked when college teams were doing it before bowl games.  Coaches were even leaving the team before the bowl games were played because they were taking a job at another university.

I get that teams need to get ready for recruiting season and the draft and get their own staff together.

I also get that teams that have ended their season can interview candidates from teams during a set timeframe.  But how fair is it, when coaches on LAR and MIN have to wait an extra day to interview just because they play Monday.  

I get that a team may want a candidate that is on a team that is still playing.  But what if that guy is not interested.  Then they better make sure they get the best one for them that is not still coaching in the playoffs before he gets snatched up by another team.  So, they want to make sure they have an equal chance to interview all of the candidates.

There should be a way to make sure it did not happen at all until all games were complete.  There is a sense of urgency -- but not to the extent that everyone cannot wait.  It just is a bad look to me.  Aside from tampering-type violations, I am not sure what can really be done.

Great posts. Who is your picks this weekend and further ?

Love the writeups and appreciate the insights! 

As always BOL

@Raiders22

Those are great write-ups.  I appreciate the time & effort involved in doing this & sharing.

Yes, offense has become a top priority & a major factor in that it's what the NFL wants (see all the rule changes) because that's what the customer wants (you & me & everyone else).  But a damn good D' is also essential, just see KC in the playoffs last year.

One thing not noted is injuries.  And a major factor is how well teams deal with those injuries.  Greatest polar opposite example I can give for this year is:  49'ers & Lions.  SF couldn't adjust while Det did.  

NFL just wants to spread the mvp award around to the young QBs and will look for any reason to justify their decision. This season it’s Josh Allen. 

Really good stuff Raiders .............

I do not play a lot of futures.

But it is interesting to look at the Conference odds and the Super Bowl odds for each team.  Then to evaluate the edge that there may, or may not, be with each team.  Simulating out the playoffs against the current odds show some possible positive and negative edges.

This edge would not mean that it would win more often.  It means that the price that you are paying is cheaper than the actual chances that they have to win.

In other words the Lions have about a 3% better chance to win than what is currently priced.  So, a positive number would be a value bet and a negative number would not be.  But the better number is with the CF number.

In other words the +130 is slightly less than 50% implied probability of winning.  

So, you would have to bet the +130 less often to realize the 3.3% edge, than the +320 to realize that 3.1% edge.  In other words, the +130 bet will win more often than the +320 bet will.  So, you would have to win less often to realize the 3% edge if you took the CF.

TEAM     SIM         CF ODDS       CF EDGE      SIM       SB ODDS     SB EDGE

DET      +114           +130            +3.3%       +272         +320         +3.1%

BLT       +255          +280            +1.9%       +525          +550          +.6%       

BUF      +277           +250           -2.0%        +622          +600          -.4%

PHL      +417           +320           -4.5%        +843          +650          -2.7%

KC        +301           +155           -14.5%       +946          +370         -11.7%

GB       +1031          +950             -.7%        +2055        +2200        +.3%

MIN      +1021          +650           -4.4%       +2236        +1400        -2.4%

TEAM     SIM         CF ODDS       CF EDGE      SIM       SB ODDS     SB EDGE

TB        +1281          +1000          -1.8%       +3631        +2200        -1.7%

DEN     +1698         +3000          +2.3%      +3998       +8500        +1.3%

HOU    +1462         +3000           +3.2%      +4285      +10000        +1.3%

LAC     +1837          +1200           -2.5%      +5334        +2500        -2.0%

WAS    +2258         +1700            -1.3%      +5334        +4000        -.6%

LAR     +1966         +1400            -1.8%      +5713         +2500        -2.1%

PIT      +2740          +3500            +.7%      +7045        +8500          +.2%

Do not know why I had to break it up like that to make it fit.  Oh well.

So, this will show some undervalued and some overvalued.  For example, DEN and PIT will be huge underdogs to start.  It also seems KC is assumed to have a huge advantage with the home field and bye; whereas DET will seem to have value even though they will have the same advantages.

But if someone likes DEN and PIT as fans or think they could pull the upset this week — this would be the time to grab them.

But it would seem if you like DET, you would be getting a really nice number right now; but an awful number on KC.

Just something to think about.

Good stuff 22 

@Raiders22

 Love having you around here Raiders. Great insight as always. One major takeaway for me this season is that the offensive line may be the most important factor in the result of any given game. On most of the bad bets I made this year I could easily say to myself, the offensive line can’t protect the qb and I had no chance because of it.

@brn2loslive2win

Thanks. 

Yessir. OFF line is so very key, especially Pass Blocking.

I will give you a couple of examples that I think make this point very well.

DET and TB have the best OFF lines overall with a 2.3 efficiency rating each.

Now look at how well their QBs are doing this year.  They are NOT leading the league in efficiency.  Goff is 9th and Mayfield is 18th.  They are seemingly having good years.  But the point is that a great OFF line will make a decent QB actually look good.

NOW take KC and CIN.  They are not so good.  KC is 10th -- 1.7 and CIN is 26th .8.

Burrow led the league in efficiency 3.8 and Mahomes was 3rd at 2.6.

The point is that elite QBs overcome these things and average QBs cannot.

For example, Detroit only had 7 holds committed on passing plays, while KC had 18.  That will set a team back a lot over the course of a season.  A great QB will overcome this; an average QB will not.

KC OFF line was 20th in Blown Block% on passes and CIN was 30th.

Now take TB, that was 5th best in Blown Block% on passes.

This is not to take away from Mayfield or Goff -- but they have shown they are not elite.  But are playing over their heads this year -- and a lot of that is due to great offensive line play.

Burrow and Mahomes are all-time greats and are showing it -- despite awful offensive line play.  Not to even mention KC and CN do not have the running game that DET and TB have -- and KC does not have the receivers the others do.

A very good case can be made that one of the most important picks a team can make, is drafting (or trading) for a QB's blindside Tackle -- usually the Left Tackle.

A good one will play for 15 years and protect multiple QBs for a franchise.

I agree, you cannot leave out Offensive Line play when looking at any matchups.