Rare POY brewing in the Forecast for Week 9

Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

it's just a pick, guys.  play it, fade it, skip it.  whatever.  make your own determination.  the guy has a nice record.  he's been more right than wrong.  he's telling you his play.  what's the big deal?

Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:

For the record, I wasn't purposely trying to hold this back in suspense.  That's never been how I go about things.  I am not going to hold this back any longer. 

Quote Originally Posted by Firebird27:

I've read through most of this thread and skipped over the nonsense.  Let's review some facts with this matchup:

Lions are 6-1 ATS this year and have covered 4 straight.  The Jets are 5-2 ATS and losers last week SUATS to the Packers after covering 5 straight.  The Jets are +7 in TO differential, but have turned it over 6 times on offense in the last 2 games.  The Lions are +1 in TO differential.  The Lions get turnovers but they also give it right back.

I see the Jets getting turnovers because the Lions have been turning it over all year consistently and if the Jets offense continues to play to form, the Lions will get some turnovers too.  Turnovers will be turned into points.

I use a Yards per Point calculator based on the stats of the last 4 games to predict the final score.  The YPPT calculator has the Lions winning 24-22.  There are enough trends to support a case to play either side. 

If this line somehow magically springs up to the 6 or 7 range, I'm with you Floyd, but it just seems to me with all the turnovers that I see in this game, it's only takes one to either make or break you.  With that, I'll pass on the side, but I really like the Ovr 41.5

Why?  The Lions offense will put up points as they have all year and I see the Jets bouncing back on offense playing in an environmentally controlled Ford Field instead of the blustery Meadowlands.

Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:



Well said, This is my POY it doesn't have to be everyone that opened the threads as well.  Use your own discretion.  I don't believe it's my job to come on here and try and convince everyone that I am right, and everyone else is wrong as it pertains to a game.  That's not my style.  Ive always appreciated hearing insight from both sides, but it will never change my play, and it never has.  I have always told people in my threads, always go with your first instinct, if that was the Jets, play it.  If you want to ride along with this play, that's your choice as well.  This isn't for a show, this is my largest and most confident wager of the season from a personal standpoint. 

Some people might trust me based on the overall success I have had when it comes to these kinds of plays and my overall winning percentage all together. 

Skimordie,  there's nothing wrong with you blindly tailing for those reasons alone and sprinkling something on the game if you are uncertain.  But, please feel free to review my past threads and winning percentage.

Best of luck regardless of your sides here.

Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

I would be concerned about one thing with the Lions.

SPECIAL TEAMS

They kicked the snot out of the skins but gave up several returns that resulted in great field position for wash. (not to mention two TD returns--one nullified by penalty).  Only a McBonehead interception put them back into a game that they should have won easily. 

Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:

A slight change in the Forecast (non POY related)

Things are going to change in my Forecast/s.  As most of you know, I typically bet evenly across the board on every single game on the card, occasionally throwing out three or four games that I like the most and clip at around 60%.

I am not implying that the Forecasts are going to start raining POY's every week, because that's not how I, or anyone should go about things at a rapid and usually dishonest pace.  I keep it as genuine as possible and that's the plan moving forward in terms of my plays go.

I have contemplated in the past breaking it down to 5 games each week and leaving the rest of the board dry, but, I like the challenge of capping each game and betting each game evenly to see where things stand at the conclusion of the season.  So far, it's been a success, that's why I haven't change.  What I am going to do every week is continue the Forecast as usual, but throw out the one game that I like the most followed by 2 more games.  From a personal standpoint, my wagering is going to moderately fluctuate percentage wise on what's played on those three games, but that kind of information is meaningless on here, and a waste to talk about other than what is my strongest play followed by the next two.

We are starting this for the Week 9 Forecast, and I will keep everything in this thread (just for this week).  The Top 3 games for each week are going to be called "The Warm Front".  Hopefully this will help other people on the forum along the way.  I know it's difficult sometimes to pick and choose from 10 or more games.

My card will be finalized within the hour. 

Quote Originally Posted by URISS2302:



Oh God.. you are such a tout

Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:



That's one of the major things I am concerned about in this contest, but I think the film from last weeks contest from both sides will help eliminate some of the errors that were made and even if the Jets get a good kick return or two back, those typically only result in 3pts from that offense. 

Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:



That's probably the most hilarious and unfortunate name I have ever been called in life.  You're definitely an odd one,  but keep things comical around here. I am glad you found your way to my threads. You're welcome anytime    I am making a slight adjustment to how I post my plays by posting my three best plays separately and that makes me a tout?  Hilarious stuff buddy.  No need to act with all this non-sense.  My threads are clear that posting on here is nothing more than recreational. 

Quote Originally Posted by ForecastinFloyd:

Look, if you wanted to come into my thread and start talking civil without all the childish non-sense, I would be more open to discussing what these forums are form and the logic behind some of the plays or questions you may have.  Unfortunately, with all this tout name calling non-sense and failing to actually do your homework on how I handle myself on here, you lose credibility in my eyes and certainly aren't worth discussing any logic behind any plays.  There's plenty of people that disagree with my picks being that I play every game on the card, there's no reason to be so hostile if someone has a pick that's the opposite of the one you like and certainly no reason to go into the mode that you have gone in here.

Best of luck down the road, and with all your plays, I don't do the drama stuff. Just usually post my plays and move onto the next week and chime in when I feel it's necessary in a mature and unbiased manner.