Ravens 20/1?

@Biscuiteater1

My point is IF you limit his running and rely solely, or a lot more on him simply throwing IT will show a lot more.  It is not to say he is in the Fields category.  BUT his passing is NOT on the level of Mahomes, Rodgers, Burrow or Herbert, etc.  Certainly his defensive reading is not on their level OR many other QBs.  BUT those QBs do NOT have his other skillset.

I am simply saying THAT is part of the reason some folks did NOT want the Ravens to sign him.

You asked that question.  That was what I was answering -- even though I am NOT one of those people.

BUT IF you want to compare his numbers with a better passing QB, I can do that; if you want to compare him with a better pressure passing QB, I can do that.

BUT that has nothing to do with my point.  My point is they are about to change him from what he does better than maybe any QB in history to a much lower-level passing QB.

@jtoler

 Also, I am not in the business of looking at analyzing a stand-alone game.  I could do that if you really liked.  The way I do it is over a period of time.  You will notice that teams now play him differently than they did when he first cam into the league.  But if you look at his seasons, you will see vastly different numbers, especially in pressure situations or critical junctures since he had his MVP year.  I am not looking for him to every be Brady or Brees in those times but I would want to see improvement.  Instead, I have seen a drop-off in those situations.

That is why I think they need a OC or QB coach to work on that part of his game.  Maybe they plan to do that as they change the offense.  We shall see.

I, for one, am rooting for him to succeed for many reasons. 

One thing i certainly hope to see a change in is the time it takes for the offense to get set.Way too many times they would not get into and or break the huddle and get into formation in a timely manner.As far as his passing acumen i have seen 99% (was taking a leak or getting a sandwich & beer the other 1%) of Ravens offensive plays and i'm of the opinion that there is plenty of room for improvement but i have confidence that he most assuredly can get the job done.I'm not to fond of futures but if i were,@ 20-1 or more the Ravens to win the SB is not that bad of a prop.

@Biscuiteater1

Even better when it was 35-1 during all the Lamar contract drama when people said he was going to be a Falcon or a Jet or even Commanders??  

20-1 isn’t that bad. Imagine if you put him out there in that Warren Moon run and shoot offense with 4 WR sets. Ok, minimal protection. Who catches him? Your DE? Lol, unlikely.

So fine, you play nickel? Still at a CB and pass rusher disadvantage, same goes for Dollar. 
Fine, you play dime. Your MLB better be as fast as Lamar, or else you’re getting torched.

OK, okay quarters and they just run the ball 2/3rds of the time with success.

Just spitballing from a defensive standpoint. If you make Lamar a run and shoot QB, who covers him after the first two reads? 

The Miami Dolphins showed the rest of the league how to beat LJ - just put pressure on him every single play.  They blitzed him a crazy amount of times in their win over BAL in 2021, and LJ looked like a deer in headlights.  Since then, teams tend to blitz BAL more that normal, and LJ just hasn't been able to overcome it when it counts.

So, if I'm the BAL OC, and I'm going to install an offense where LJ spends more time in the pocket, I think they need to provide him with some sort of release valve when he starts feeling pressure.  In my mind, the easiest and best way to do this would be to use a RB that is a great pass catcher and a decent blocker.  You stick the RB back there, let him put a quick block on anyone who gets through the line, and then release him into the flat to catch a ball if LJ can't find any open targets or comes under blitz pressure.  If you consistently give LJ peace of mind that the RB is going to be there to bail him out, it could change LJ's whole approach to the game - he'd be able to have the option to use his arm to escape pressure, instead of having to rely on his legs all the time.

If the play design is correct, one can really take advantage of OLBs covering four WR sets. Ravens also use Andrews like a WR, that dude is a beast.

@jtoler

He has NOT gotten better in pressure situations with his passing.  Whether it is Cover 3 or just mesh rushing technique by the defense or over-covering the TEs he relies on so much -- but, with some of these techniques various teams have learned to defend him much better.  There are examples of it from even mediocre defenses.  Look at how well Cleveland has done with the mesh-rushing; look at how well the Raiders did while using Cover 3 the entire game, basically.

This is NOT to say he cannot win passing.  You are missing my point -- his passing is NOT elite but it is good.  He can win passing but NOT passing alone.  You cannot take the rushing away from him, that is a huge part of what makes him what he is.  He is a winner BUT while using his running as a compliment to his passing.  His running is elite.

I do not put much stock on comeback wins as a gauge of how good a QB is -- never have.  My retort is always do not fall behind. to start with.  Why are you always trying to come back?  Like the example you listed -- he was behind and had to do all of that work in the second half and OT to come from behind.  All kinds of mediocre QBs have a lot of comeback wins.  Sure, it shows the ability to do it if necessary; but it is not a gauge of whether a QB is elite or not.

Absolutely his passing numbers have fallen off from his MVP year -- this is not hard to look up.

You can also find his numbers in pressure situations and in situational spots, like in one-score games, etc.  They are not as good as they were.

But they can coach those things.  They need to worry more about that part -- improve his passing and defensive-reading.  Do NOT worry as much about his running -- that is NOT where he has been getting injured.

If you cannot find the numbers and are really interested, I can put them in here for you.  That will tell you where he needs coaching and development.  This is exactly the same thing that had to happen with, say, Cunningham later in his career -- and it worked; many others did NOT get that coaching and it did not work.

Again, I have to keep prefacing this with saying I am pro-LJ not anti-LJ.

No sir.  You are missing my point.  It is nice that he can come back.  But lots of QBs do.  The NFL games are a lot of ebb and flow.  
For example, compare how many comeback wins he has versus some other random QBs.  
I could very easily make the argument that he does not have enough comeback wins — because he is always ahead more.   
So, no sir.  That is a nice statistic they can post on TV.  But is not a statistic I use in evaluating QBs, or use in determining if they are elite or not.

 If the other team gets the ball and scored a FG first.  Then you beat them 28-3.  Do you really consider that a comeback win, etc.  

Then folks say 4th quarter comebacks.  Does that really matter that much? The NFL is such a parity league now.  Was it a 48-45 shootout and they just happened to have the ball last?  Or was it 17-14 on a last second FG?  Did they come back from 2 TDs down?  Those are all important things. 
All comebacks are NOT equal.  
But if you look at how many times QBs are in pressure situations and do NOT come from behind and win — is that important also?

Etc., etc. 

Not taking that away from him.  It is nice to be able to do that.  But you have to scrutinize the situation.  

Yes. One score games matter.  A QBs performance in those matter a lot.  Especially as more and more NFL games tend to be that.  

Nowadays it is usually considered a +/- 8 point game situation.  

For example, I can make a good case that it is equally important to be able to close out those games as it is to comeback in them. 

There are some QBs that perform way better than others in those situations.  

You are correct.  The level of disdain is unwarranted.  

I was simply explaining to you why some folks did not want them to resign him and why some folks think he is elite. 
That was the question you asked. 

I agree with you on Allen.  I disagree on Burrow. 

Allen is still trying overrated to me.  A level below LJ right now — to me.

Burrow has never been mediocre for his level of experience at any time since he came into the league. 

Absolutely, they both have been coached up.  That was my point when I said if LJ had been in KC with Reid.  

I just have not seen the coaching at BLT give him that.  I have doubts that the new OC and scheme will do it either.  
But time will tell and very quickly. 

You are very correct.  He has managed to do more than 90% of other QBs.  I would even say, maybe 95%.  

But teams have started to play him very differently and better than they did before.  That was my whole point on his numbers not being what they were.  Maybe those earlier numbers set the expectations too high.  

Honest question, is this good or bad?

If I close my eyes and dream of a Ravens offense with less running, and no qb runs, but Lamar playing from the pocket, I think they call this a nightmare. 

I never said NO designed runs, but this will be the 1st time in 3 years that they will have 3 very capable rb's in the back field and at least 3 legit receivers.They will be no need to call his # 8 - 12 times a game. I say maybe 4 and he will take off on his own as he see's fit also. Might end up being the toughest division in football. So to answer the question, yes i think we can be better off. 

@jtoler

Gotcha 

The Bengals shot their load-two years ago and blew the Superbowl in the second half after leading by 10 in the 3rd quarter and then last year lost in a close conference game to KC on a silly penalty. Their window is closing and their luck will not hold. They lost several defensive starters and a good running back to free agency. 

Burrow's 5th year option at 29.5 million will begin to cut into the kind of money that a team needs to stay competitive...it works for Mahomes and KC but not a model that will work for others IMO. Wait til he signs for 50 million plus. 

@Buffalobob89074

 NFW....3rd maybe.....