RAVENS @ JETS: You won't like it but, as always, you'll just have to trust me!!!

Record: 22-8 (73%)

The pick:

JETS -1 (-115) over Ravens

We are going to put our faith in Geno Smith.

Yes, Geno is going to give us that chance to take this bet home. But that's not the only reason.

And I have no trouble fading the very team I touted last week.

I'll be back with a write-up later. And I have no apologies for the juice. -1 is a push or win line where no spread takes us out. I cannot, under any circumstances, give out any more than a single point with this Jets team right now so I'll swallow the $.05. We get the pure spread and we have to take it.

There is ZERO chance I am taking the banged up Ravens again in the same venue where they did us dirty last week. The injuries have no subsided and the "If you can't be the walking wounded, who can you beat?" angle alive for the Jets. This is the exact same angle the Giants were facing last week and ultimately they took it down.

Moderately-sized play. Nothing to go crazy and pile on with. Write-up later.

Precisely.

Point 1. The Jets have played only two home games.

The Jets have played away games at the following:

@Pittsburgh

@Arizona

@Kansas City

@Buffalo

For all the Jets struggles, those are some of the toughest home venues in the NFL that no team would want to travel to. That's in their first 4 of 6. And they took down a very tough game in Buffalo.

Then they get CIncy and Seattle at home.

For all it's worth, a wounded Baltimore team is their easiest game and it comes at home. And we only lay 1.

That is valuable. That is worth something. The season may be lost at the moment but the Jets won't finish 1-15. For all we've heard about the Jets schedule, the road games and travel have had the most impact.

Now we're back a MetLife where the Ravens had to come to, leave and come back to. Not a lot of travel from Baltimore but an inconvenience and a road game for Baltimore nonetheless as they come in with duct tape and chicken wire holding them together.

That makes the bet a bit more attractive right out of the gate.

to the above.

I'll just rattle off some of the other angles, however obvious.

1. Geno

He's playing for his career here. This can legitimately be his last ever NFL start (just as Sanchize how that works).

On top of that, before Fitz was even signed, the Jets were at O/U 8 wins with Geno as QB. After Fitz was signed the number closed at 8 wins.

That means that the Fitz of LAST year was valued similarly to Geno in terms of team total wins.

Has it panned out that way? No. But Geno is not chopped liver. He creates and can run out of a collapsing pocket for crucial first downs, something Fitz cannot do.

I prefer him here and I prefer the fact the Ravens haven't seen him start in 2 years. Like Gunner Kiel tonight with Cincy over ECU, a quarterback of yesteryear can get it done for you for one game.

So are the Knicks and I've made almost a second income off them.  

Point 3 - The injuries

Flacco practiced only one day this week. His sore shoulder will not feel better in the cold and whipping wind at MetLife. Harbaugh will also have a short leash with him if he takes a beating.

I looked at the practice reports and when a player is doubtful and DNP on a Friday practice, they almost certainly won't play. Here they are:

Yanda

Wright

Suggs

Steve Smith

Jimmy Smith

Mosley

Dumervil

They'll all almost certainly be out. That's a lot of pro bowl beef right there.

These are all very basic observations but sometimes that's all you need to take down a game when you have home field, are on a losing streak you need to snap, have new blood behind center, have a great line, and have the "Walking Wounded" angle on the other side.

I have more to say but right now Covers just keeps freezing up. Let's just play the Jets, go 2-0 for the weekend and keep taking from the house.

All my f'n games have the lines moving against everyone who sees my posts late. It sucks!