Ravens up seven go for two ?

Why would you do that?

I was on over 46.5 in game bet and I was fuming

got lucky with the multiple penalties late on to win the bet

but why would u do that??

@shrewdie

 Just regular NFL coaching. Happens multiple times a week. 

To make it a 2 score game and out of reach.  

@meknowno

risk outweighs reward plenty of time left anyway 

That's the wrong play all day long. You kick the extra point and go up 8. There's no debate.

It’s the Harbough game 

zero debate 

Actually it's the opposite.  The risk of going from 8 to 7 is neglible, COMPARED to the reward of a 2-possession game in the 4th Q.  Same as if they were up 10 and tried to push to 12. 

But instead of kicking the xp and going up by eight they attempted a 2 to get a nine point lead 

seems absolutely crazy to me

it was 

100% the correct call

7 or 8 doesn't matter...1 possession game

9 matters....2 possession game

why is it crazy to want to be up 2 scores in the 4th quarter?

@buddygurt

 It’s not crazy to want to be up by two scores.

but the near certainty of being up by 8 against the much more risky being up by nine is imo crazy

This is the correct answer.  Math is hard for most 

there's no real advantage either way of going for 1 or 2
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/

i think it's the wrong move but if you have some badass 2 point plays or if your defense is really bad going against a good offense, then maybe it's worth a try

This is the answer. When you are only up by 7 you are in a position to possibly lose the game. When you’re up by 8 you cannot be beat in less than two possessions.

@brn2loslive2win

 You are up 7 with a possibility of losing the game on a TD + 2 pt conversion 

If you go up 9 the other team cannot tie in 1 possession

He was right to try to go up 9 points

You have lamar jackson and derek henry, and the ravens defense isnt very good, you made the case to go for 2 there 

So its risky to go up 9 instead of kicking to go up 8, but not risky to go for the 2 to take the lead instead of kicking to tie? 

I don't think 8 and 7 are the same. Kicking 1 pt is over 90%.

Going for 2 is roughly 50%. Can't be the same.

Up 8 your opp needs to not only score a TD but needs to convert a 50% probability.

Then you need to multiple the odds to score a TD × 50%.

VS up 7 you multiple the exact same odds to score a TD × 95%.

Up 8 is higher probability to win .

But Up 9 is a far higher probability to win. Yes more risky too but much higher probability to win.

So to me the question is, does the risk of a 50% probability to score 2 pts outweigh the higher probability of being up 8 VS being up only 7.

I don't think either way is wrong myself. Only a matter of what as a coach you feel is right based on matchups and players and any special 2 pt plays you may have that no teams know you have.

@theclaw

 I think what is not being taken into consideration in your probability of winning % is that if you decide to go for 2 there and don’t get it, effectively only giving yourself a 7 point lead, that the other team can now score a TD and go for two themselves to take the lead and beat you. Just my opinion 

2 possession vs 1?