We know the Ravens thrashed the Bills in week 4. I don't want to focus on the "then", I want to focus on the "now". We also know Bills were in a bad situation spot, and also missed Matt Milano and other LBs. I don't want to focus on the "then", I want to focus on the "now".
And here's what I see now:
Bills rush defense is still untested against good rushing teams. For the 4 games that Milano returned in December, they allowed 153 yards on 27 carries to a beaten down but still good 49ers backfield. To be fair it was Milano's first game back. Then they gave up a respectable 48 yards on 15 carries to the Lions who are one of the top rushing teams this year. That's still an average of 4.78 ypc combined from both games. They also played the Rams and Jets which are bottom rank in rushing so altogether small sample size with Milano the total allowed is 4.28 ypc which is a half yard improvement than in games without him(excluding week 18) which is once again 4.78 ypc. They haven't played a tough schedule of run offenses either despite avg 4.5 ypc on the season.
Ravens obvious focal point will be to smash mouth the Bills defense to oblivion with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson running the ball.
Will Ravens still have success again? I think they will but probably won't put up the same gaudy numbers that they did in week 4 or like last round against Steelers. The Bills will probably take their chances and commit more bodies to the scrimmage to stop Henry. They will try to make Lamar pass more in this game and I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing.
Isaiah Likely's emergence during Andrew's absence last year formed a new connection for Lamar which has led to more clever use of double tight end formations. Rashod Bateman has finally stepped out of his underperforming shadows and become one of Lamar's favorite Redzone targets. Justice Hill and perhaps Keaton Mitchell may factor into the plans. Lamar has 3 RB's that can run and catch. If Zay Flowers can return to the fold... Lamar has enough weapons to go around, something that he didn't have much of when he played against the Bills last time in the divisional round.
(To be continued)
Sip on that plus money honey!
2
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
We know the Ravens thrashed the Bills in week 4. I don't want to focus on the "then", I want to focus on the "now". We also know Bills were in a bad situation spot, and also missed Matt Milano and other LBs. I don't want to focus on the "then", I want to focus on the "now".
And here's what I see now:
Bills rush defense is still untested against good rushing teams. For the 4 games that Milano returned in December, they allowed 153 yards on 27 carries to a beaten down but still good 49ers backfield. To be fair it was Milano's first game back. Then they gave up a respectable 48 yards on 15 carries to the Lions who are one of the top rushing teams this year. That's still an average of 4.78 ypc combined from both games. They also played the Rams and Jets which are bottom rank in rushing so altogether small sample size with Milano the total allowed is 4.28 ypc which is a half yard improvement than in games without him(excluding week 18) which is once again 4.78 ypc. They haven't played a tough schedule of run offenses either despite avg 4.5 ypc on the season.
Ravens obvious focal point will be to smash mouth the Bills defense to oblivion with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson running the ball.
Will Ravens still have success again? I think they will but probably won't put up the same gaudy numbers that they did in week 4 or like last round against Steelers. The Bills will probably take their chances and commit more bodies to the scrimmage to stop Henry. They will try to make Lamar pass more in this game and I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing.
Isaiah Likely's emergence during Andrew's absence last year formed a new connection for Lamar which has led to more clever use of double tight end formations. Rashod Bateman has finally stepped out of his underperforming shadows and become one of Lamar's favorite Redzone targets. Justice Hill and perhaps Keaton Mitchell may factor into the plans. Lamar has 3 RB's that can run and catch. If Zay Flowers can return to the fold... Lamar has enough weapons to go around, something that he didn't have much of when he played against the Bills last time in the divisional round.
You could also bring up that Ravens had an easy December schedule against the awful Giants and Browns, struggling Texans without Tank Dell and struggling Steelers minus George Pickens. I get it, it's not like the Bills played a murderer's row of opponents in December either but they did play the Lions so they get bonus points for that. It's fair to ask then how much has this Ravens defense "really" improved, or how much this Bills offense has "really" improved because they both have been red hot in the past month.
The biggest wildcard in this match will be the Ravens secondary and how will they be able to hold up against Josh Allen and the potent Bills offense? This will be the toughest challenge yet for the Ravens defense since playing the Bengals in week 10. Ravens defense went from nearly dead last in scoring defense back to a top 10 unit by the end of the season. While secondary has certainly made strides since week 11 they haven't truly been tested with this reformed lineup. The passing offenses they have gone up against during that time have been subpar. What I find interesting though is despite their early season defensive struggles they still managed to go 7-3 despite poor secondary play. In hindsight they played some of their toughest schedule against top passing teams in Bengals twice, Bucs, Cowboys with Dak, and Bills which were all wins. Then again I digress, let's talk about now and not then.
What's clear to me, is with a few shifts in the defensive personnel the Ravens are playing notably faster and more tighter coverage over the top of the field. Switching Ardarius Washington to full-time safety was a good move. Physical tackler and quicker to the ball than the injured prone Marcus Williams. Feels like the defensive front is also putting more pass rush pressure upfront which will be crucial against Josh Allen who has been well protected this year.
There's no way Ravens secondary will limit Josh Allen to under 200 yards passing back to back so I expect Bills to win their fair share of battles. James Cook is their primary workhorse and versatile back. Ravens run defense is rated #1 so Cook might see more pass catching action instead. Ravens defense has allowed the 4th most receiving yards to running backs. I also expect Amari Cooper to be a big part of their plans this week whose had an unusually quiet presence. He might be due for a big game. Allen has a lot of complimentary weapons if not necessarily star studded players like Knox, Kincaid, Hollins and Shakir. Ravens defense will have their hands full in the passing game.
The game will likely come down to the intangibles: special teams, penalties, 3rd downs conversions, Redzone performance, turnovers. It's split down the middle. Penalties have been a killer for Baltimore this season and but 3rd down off/def and Redzone off/def is in Baltimore's favor. I think the turnover battle could be the one that tip the scales. Both teams have done a great job taking care of the ball. However Bills defense has more takeaways by a wider margin. With all these factors into play, it won't be another 35-10 beat down. I feel like Ravens are slightly more talented team and have played the tougher SOS. In the end, I think the Ravens can outlast the Bills. I've got a final score of 31-27
Ravens -1
Sip on that plus money honey!
3
You could also bring up that Ravens had an easy December schedule against the awful Giants and Browns, struggling Texans without Tank Dell and struggling Steelers minus George Pickens. I get it, it's not like the Bills played a murderer's row of opponents in December either but they did play the Lions so they get bonus points for that. It's fair to ask then how much has this Ravens defense "really" improved, or how much this Bills offense has "really" improved because they both have been red hot in the past month.
The biggest wildcard in this match will be the Ravens secondary and how will they be able to hold up against Josh Allen and the potent Bills offense? This will be the toughest challenge yet for the Ravens defense since playing the Bengals in week 10. Ravens defense went from nearly dead last in scoring defense back to a top 10 unit by the end of the season. While secondary has certainly made strides since week 11 they haven't truly been tested with this reformed lineup. The passing offenses they have gone up against during that time have been subpar. What I find interesting though is despite their early season defensive struggles they still managed to go 7-3 despite poor secondary play. In hindsight they played some of their toughest schedule against top passing teams in Bengals twice, Bucs, Cowboys with Dak, and Bills which were all wins. Then again I digress, let's talk about now and not then.
What's clear to me, is with a few shifts in the defensive personnel the Ravens are playing notably faster and more tighter coverage over the top of the field. Switching Ardarius Washington to full-time safety was a good move. Physical tackler and quicker to the ball than the injured prone Marcus Williams. Feels like the defensive front is also putting more pass rush pressure upfront which will be crucial against Josh Allen who has been well protected this year.
There's no way Ravens secondary will limit Josh Allen to under 200 yards passing back to back so I expect Bills to win their fair share of battles. James Cook is their primary workhorse and versatile back. Ravens run defense is rated #1 so Cook might see more pass catching action instead. Ravens defense has allowed the 4th most receiving yards to running backs. I also expect Amari Cooper to be a big part of their plans this week whose had an unusually quiet presence. He might be due for a big game. Allen has a lot of complimentary weapons if not necessarily star studded players like Knox, Kincaid, Hollins and Shakir. Ravens defense will have their hands full in the passing game.
The game will likely come down to the intangibles: special teams, penalties, 3rd downs conversions, Redzone performance, turnovers. It's split down the middle. Penalties have been a killer for Baltimore this season and but 3rd down off/def and Redzone off/def is in Baltimore's favor. I think the turnover battle could be the one that tip the scales. Both teams have done a great job taking care of the ball. However Bills defense has more takeaways by a wider margin. With all these factors into play, it won't be another 35-10 beat down. I feel like Ravens are slightly more talented team and have played the tougher SOS. In the end, I think the Ravens can outlast the Bills. I've got a final score of 31-27
Enjoyed the writeup, it sort of reads like 'Gone With The Wind'. Josh Allen as Rhett Butler and Sean McDermott as Scarlet O'Hara and at the end Josh says to Sean "Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn."
The Sunset Kid drove to the beach at sundown. Watching the sun go down brought him luck.
3
@Digitalkarma
Enjoyed the writeup, it sort of reads like 'Gone With The Wind'. Josh Allen as Rhett Butler and Sean McDermott as Scarlet O'Hara and at the end Josh says to Sean "Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn."
I agree that its unlikely the Ravens will tally as much rushing yards as last time, but unless Bills defensive linemen have been making the circuit with Joey Chesnut and entering pie eating contests for desert, they will get pushed around again.
1
I agree that its unlikely the Ravens will tally as much rushing yards as last time, but unless Bills defensive linemen have been making the circuit with Joey Chesnut and entering pie eating contests for desert, they will get pushed around again.
Ravens secondary is still a problem even last week they made too many mistakes. Of course they have improved from earlier in the season. The ravens don’t typically lose. They self destruct. Tucker has had a few weeks off as the team has not needed him at all. He is still a wildcard.They are also one of the most penalized teams in the league. Can Buffalo stop the run? Can they take a lead and force Baltimore to pass more. Ravens have plenty of weapons but no flowers is huge. Honestly if he plays then I’d lean Baltimore
I find the line gives ravens backers little value. Is Baltimore really 4 points better than Buffalo who is at home? I was impressed with Buffalo last week.
For me I just don’t see a play.
2
Ravens secondary is still a problem even last week they made too many mistakes. Of course they have improved from earlier in the season. The ravens don’t typically lose. They self destruct. Tucker has had a few weeks off as the team has not needed him at all. He is still a wildcard.They are also one of the most penalized teams in the league. Can Buffalo stop the run? Can they take a lead and force Baltimore to pass more. Ravens have plenty of weapons but no flowers is huge. Honestly if he plays then I’d lean Baltimore
I find the line gives ravens backers little value. Is Baltimore really 4 points better than Buffalo who is at home? I was impressed with Buffalo last week.
With the addition of Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson's performance has improved quite a lot in this season. Also, I saw this season is Jackson's best TD/INT ratio as he ever playing in the NFL. If Jackson can play up to his regular season level or like last weekend against the Steelers, Ravens can win this game. My perspective is NFL has become a QB league, better QB seems wining more and more games nowadays.
Look at how Don Juan selecting his Super Bowls winners, QB's rating and experiences seem playing heavily in his picks.
1
@Digitalkarma
With the addition of Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson's performance has improved quite a lot in this season. Also, I saw this season is Jackson's best TD/INT ratio as he ever playing in the NFL. If Jackson can play up to his regular season level or like last weekend against the Steelers, Ravens can win this game. My perspective is NFL has become a QB league, better QB seems wining more and more games nowadays.
Look at how Don Juan selecting his Super Bowls winners, QB's rating and experiences seem playing heavily in his picks.
Bills knocking off KC and then the LIONS on the road puts them in elite championship level.
key to this game will be how aggressive McDermott will be late. You don’t want a situation where ravens have a 1-3 point lead 5 mins left and in position to bleed out the clock and your offense never sees the ball again. They can do that.
McDermott will have to go for it on 4th short even on his side of the field at some point. Josh Allen’s hands, 4 downs to pick up 10 yards. That’s how you lose the game, if you’re going to lose it.
0
Bills knocking off KC and then the LIONS on the road puts them in elite championship level.
key to this game will be how aggressive McDermott will be late. You don’t want a situation where ravens have a 1-3 point lead 5 mins left and in position to bleed out the clock and your offense never sees the ball again. They can do that.
McDermott will have to go for it on 4th short even on his side of the field at some point. Josh Allen’s hands, 4 downs to pick up 10 yards. That’s how you lose the game, if you’re going to lose it.
Great writeup and agree that the game may come down to the intangibles including turnovers and penalties...
Advantage BUFFALO with turnover differential of +24 vs Ravens at +6. Home field and crowd noise should enhance the chance for turnovers in the Bills favor imo.
Another intangible may be the officiating crew of Carl Cheffers. There is a history of (over?)-penalizing the Ravens in the past. With Cheffers crew, home teams are 82-53 ml since 2016 and Home Dogs 23-12-3 ats. Some crewmembers may be mixed with other referee crews during playoffs but I think we can expect similar results w/Cheffers leading
Lastly, I would lean Bills who now find themselves to be home underdogs, despite a dominant 9-0 home record...no respect is highly motivating!
BILLS +1
2
Great writeup and agree that the game may come down to the intangibles including turnovers and penalties...
Advantage BUFFALO with turnover differential of +24 vs Ravens at +6. Home field and crowd noise should enhance the chance for turnovers in the Bills favor imo.
Another intangible may be the officiating crew of Carl Cheffers. There is a history of (over?)-penalizing the Ravens in the past. With Cheffers crew, home teams are 82-53 ml since 2016 and Home Dogs 23-12-3 ats. Some crewmembers may be mixed with other referee crews during playoffs but I think we can expect similar results w/Cheffers leading
Lastly, I would lean Bills who now find themselves to be home underdogs, despite a dominant 9-0 home record...no respect is highly motivating!
Ravens rushed the ball 50 times last game to 21 pass attempts. I think Monken has it figured out how to win in January. The Ravens really should have won last year against the Chiefs but they got cute and passed the ball too much. If they stick to running it, they should prevail. I like them to beat the Bills.
0
Ravens rushed the ball 50 times last game to 21 pass attempts. I think Monken has it figured out how to win in January. The Ravens really should have won last year against the Chiefs but they got cute and passed the ball too much. If they stick to running it, they should prevail. I like them to beat the Bills.
Yep, Ravens got 20 lbs more beef on the front lines on both sides lol.
@WilliamMunny
I'm not sure about too many mistakes. They had a few communication break downs sure but if there is someone Josh Allen can take advantage of it's Brandon Stephens he's the weakest link on that secondary. Wiggins should get more snaps imo
@Europa
This is the best I've seen Lamar perform this year, even better than his 2019 season no doubt about it.
@ActionMagnet
Good points Action.
@lmb4321
Good luck
@Ravensfan2k3
Can't go against my team especially the year Lamar and Derrick Henry been having
@JFEEZEE
GL
Sip on that plus money honey!
1
@Biscuiteater1
Yep, Ravens got 20 lbs more beef on the front lines on both sides lol.
@WilliamMunny
I'm not sure about too many mistakes. They had a few communication break downs sure but if there is someone Josh Allen can take advantage of it's Brandon Stephens he's the weakest link on that secondary. Wiggins should get more snaps imo
@Europa
This is the best I've seen Lamar perform this year, even better than his 2019 season no doubt about it.
@ActionMagnet
Good points Action.
@lmb4321
Good luck
@Ravensfan2k3
Can't go against my team especially the year Lamar and Derrick Henry been having
Going to be a tough environment for sure. Loud crowds, chilly temps and possibly snow. This may be Lamar's Mile High Miracle game and he might need one.
@D-Town
GL
@NONEED4LUCK
If Monken hasn't learn his lessons from the AFC Championship then I don't know what else to say
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
@Erik48
Going to be a tough environment for sure. Loud crowds, chilly temps and possibly snow. This may be Lamar's Mile High Miracle game and he might need one.
@D-Town
GL
@NONEED4LUCK
If Monken hasn't learn his lessons from the AFC Championship then I don't know what else to say
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love it, picturing Josh saying that right now.
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