Regression candidates go 8-1

Assuming most teams gravitate to a 50/50 ATS and OU record with the help of the lines makers

adjusting up and down from true value. We see in week 7 that DET(5-1) and MIA (5-1) and LAR (4-1) all lost ATS.

While ATL (1-5) and CHIC (1-4) and NE (1-5) and DEN (0-5) and NYG (1-5) all won ATS. The only team NOT to regress

was N.O (they will be included net week). These results are from teasing the regression directionaly.

As for total regression OU plays. CHIC (5-1) goes under (W).

NO (0-6)  (W) and PITT (1-4)  (W) and BALT (1-5)  (W) and NE (1-5)  (W) and LV (1-5)  (W) all go OVER the teaser total.

MINN (1-5) pending.

So, SIDES was (8-1) and TOTALS was (6-3)= (14-4) with 1 pending...a nice result!!!

ATL (1-5)) TB (1-4) NYG (1-5) failed to regress and will be on next weeks play sheet.

CAROLINA (0-5) ATS  needs to be added to my play sheet.

jowchoo  couldn't find a thread from you that addressed your parameters on this.  Is this your first post/plays on the regression?  what about the 2-4 or 4-2 teams?  they should regress also?  very interested in this as i've thought about this angle as one of many to cap..

The post you are looking for is from Oct.11...VEGAS LINES

When a team's ATS or OU record gets too far from the 50/50 mark (4 or 5) either way, then VEGAS shades the line

to discourage free money bets or long runs in the same direction.My strategy is to use this VALUE in teasers for additional

insurance, been profitable for years.

thanks 

Thank you Jowchoo. This is a brilliant angle and one that I have not given a lot of thought to in the past. It does seem like that this year there are an abnormal amount of teams that have terrible ATS records about 1/4-1/3 of the way through. 

Do you use 2 or 3 team teasers ?

And depending on which - 6,7 or 10 points ?

Looked at last years results . About 28% of teams were 5 games over or under .500 on both ATS and O/U . So if betting single games you could be chasing some of those 28%ers and not see a profit . But you said you used teasers which caught my interest. Thanks in advance for a reply !

Talk about regression- unders are hitting at about a 62 % rate . Pretty sure that's not sustainable .

Exactly..so tease down the shaded total and play OVER.

my advice always works over 25 years TEASE the Team you think will win the game fully handicap points for points aginst see if 6 or 10 points teser gives you disntct advantage some times chalk too much win by 2 as - 16.5  chalk already this year happening

lets see teasing past week huge favs

bills -8.5 @ patriots nope s/u loss by 4 points so u could select alt spread bills + 4.5 but wow that price would be - 600 or higher

seahawks down to - 2.5  from - 8.5 ehhh won b y 10 but cards +14.5 u win that too

tonite 49ers up 1/2 to -7 expect it to climb to - 8.5 i use fan duel in casino local or at  OTB across street less than mile from my door

The pending MINN regression teaser SEA-1 / Ov 37 (*)  (W)

That brings the anchor/regression teaser strategy to (15-4) for week 7.

This week 8 appears to have 8 candidates and results are heating up just like last year  :-)