What do you consider Research how do you guys go about looking into a game in NFL and for that matter all sports what does your research consist of. Just trying to see others perspectives and get better and more proficient and effective with my own research and picks. Lets get a condo going and help one another out
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
What do you consider Research how do you guys go about looking into a game in NFL and for that matter all sports what does your research consist of. Just trying to see others perspectives and get better and more proficient and effective with my own research and picks. Lets get a condo going and help one another out
I check the figures at Football Outsiders becuase their analysts know infinitely more about FB than I do. I compute my own Passing Power Index for team passing OFF and DEF because it helps to have exclusive numbers. I check the TA's & TO's for some recent games for certain games with specific lines.
Then I consult my psychic wart.
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I check the figures at Football Outsiders becuase their analysts know infinitely more about FB than I do. I compute my own Passing Power Index for team passing OFF and DEF because it helps to have exclusive numbers. I check the TA's & TO's for some recent games for certain games with specific lines.
Ill get into this more tomorrow but lets get a real in depth discussion and together make a system that works consistently… I have taken a beating huge chunk of my bankroll in 2 games being an idiot and didn't do my research … Tomm I am liking 1st H UNDER 3 in CHC PITT MLB game might hit it for the price of 1 bet I lose then cut loss in half and ill be ok thru the weekend get even by saturday and up sunday THATS THE PLAN
BUFFALO -3
BUFFALO -150 ****
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Ill get into this more tomorrow but lets get a real in depth discussion and together make a system that works consistently… I have taken a beating huge chunk of my bankroll in 2 games being an idiot and didn't do my research … Tomm I am liking 1st H UNDER 3 in CHC PITT MLB game might hit it for the price of 1 bet I lose then cut loss in half and ill be ok thru the weekend get even by saturday and up sunday THATS THE PLAN
My two main starts do not have a point factor. I also have a section in my handicapping where i examine points in more detail. For people who think the Vegas line is spot on, in so many games it is way off the mark.
There are ways to approach this. A checklist of edge and key factors and/or Comparing visiting team offense vs home team defense etc A grading system of A to F or 1 to 10 or 1 to 4 etc
I already have my method, and enjoy discussing the details of how and why of handicapping.
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My two main starts do not have a point factor. I also have a section in my handicapping where i examine points in more detail. For people who think the Vegas line is spot on, in so many games it is way off the mark.
There are ways to approach this. A checklist of edge and key factors and/or Comparing visiting team offense vs home team defense etc A grading system of A to F or 1 to 10 or 1 to 4 etc
I already have my method, and enjoy discussing the details of how and why of handicapping.
I was making my own spreads seeing which ones were off most hitting those games but don't think i was good enough at it I'm 24 still learning but yes i started YOUNG and dad and uncle bet so i was around it young wether its good or bad lol i would like to get back to making own power ranking making own spreads finding most value then researching those games
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MagicMan64
I was making my own spreads seeing which ones were off most hitting those games but don't think i was good enough at it I'm 24 still learning but yes i started YOUNG and dad and uncle bet so i was around it young wether its good or bad lol i would like to get back to making own power ranking making own spreads finding most value then researching those games
First off I am serious about exploring this topic. My method picks mainly favorites, and I have my own style of handicapping. Now if you want to go the usual route of power ranking and factoring in the line, keep in mind the line and margin of victory are usually far apart.
Do you want to use other calculated metrics like Saragin ratings, nate Silver ELO, Football Outsiders DOVA, ESPN FPI ? Or do you want to start from scratch and begin with point difference as the foundation and adjust by certain factors like a small victory or big loss etc ?
Another approach would be taking the money line and point spread and converting that into 1 to 100 scale. Then we could develop a formula to predict winning percentage and look for value by comparison.
My other idea would be to do a checklist of key factor comparison and look for a betting edge that way. For example, how good is the defense of team xyz would be a category. Another category could be red zone profienciency.
Or do you want to tweak the method you have used in the past ?
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First off I am serious about exploring this topic. My method picks mainly favorites, and I have my own style of handicapping. Now if you want to go the usual route of power ranking and factoring in the line, keep in mind the line and margin of victory are usually far apart.
Do you want to use other calculated metrics like Saragin ratings, nate Silver ELO, Football Outsiders DOVA, ESPN FPI ? Or do you want to start from scratch and begin with point difference as the foundation and adjust by certain factors like a small victory or big loss etc ?
Another approach would be taking the money line and point spread and converting that into 1 to 100 scale. Then we could develop a formula to predict winning percentage and look for value by comparison.
My other idea would be to do a checklist of key factor comparison and look for a betting edge that way. For example, how good is the defense of team xyz would be a category. Another category could be red zone profienciency.
Or do you want to tweak the method you have used in the past ?
I want to start a new method and change as needed and bet small on it 100$ a game until its proven and ill continue to to do what I'm doing see a lot of what you just said is new to me and this is why i started this thread i know my knowledge is above average but by no means an expert and have a lot to learn. and who dosent want to learn as much as possible be successful and make MONEY I'm willing to try new different systems and learn old ones and see what works best for me personally
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I want to start a new method and change as needed and bet small on it 100$ a game until its proven and ill continue to to do what I'm doing see a lot of what you just said is new to me and this is why i started this thread i know my knowledge is above average but by no means an expert and have a lot to learn. and who dosent want to learn as much as possible be successful and make MONEY I'm willing to try new different systems and learn old ones and see what works best for me personally
Actually I do suggest we start off with pretend money. I have posted my initial thoughts on this weeks games in the Uncle Ernie report thread. I consider myself an above average handicapper. Also I prefer to call myself a handicapper as compared to being called a sharp.
The one thing I want to throw out the window is relying on trends. When you follow trends, you trend to lose.
I would like to use points per play difference from sporting charts.com as a metric for overall play. I would also like to factor in the defense rank of DOVA from football outsiders. using defensive rank we can fade teams witha defensive rank below 20. I would also like to develop a metric based on red zone made and red zone attempts. We might also want to keep an eye on sack differential and tackled for a loss or stuffed percentage. So far, I have been unable to get the toxic differential metric at sportingcharts.com to work for me betting wise.
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$100 a game is a small amount ???
Actually I do suggest we start off with pretend money. I have posted my initial thoughts on this weeks games in the Uncle Ernie report thread. I consider myself an above average handicapper. Also I prefer to call myself a handicapper as compared to being called a sharp.
The one thing I want to throw out the window is relying on trends. When you follow trends, you trend to lose.
I would like to use points per play difference from sporting charts.com as a metric for overall play. I would also like to factor in the defense rank of DOVA from football outsiders. using defensive rank we can fade teams witha defensive rank below 20. I would also like to develop a metric based on red zone made and red zone attempts. We might also want to keep an eye on sack differential and tackled for a loss or stuffed percentage. So far, I have been unable to get the toxic differential metric at sportingcharts.com to work for me betting wise.
@itakeitall, you might also want to read some of my past posts to gain insight about my handicapping thinking. My current method involves the quality factor, so i would like to approach this project from the perspective of value.
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@itakeitall, you might also want to read some of my past posts to gain insight about my handicapping thinking. My current method involves the quality factor, so i would like to approach this project from the perspective of value.
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