As someone who typically likes to play dogs and trends, I must confess this is the worst year of NFL betting for me in over 10 years. Fortunately, 2 big hits last week, Minny and N.O., have pulled me out of the red and back on the correct side of the ledger.
I would like to address an intangible I see for both games, as we can dissect matchups, X's and O's, strengths and weaknesses all we want, but rarely does a game play out exactly how we armchair QB's expect it too. We may be right on the outcome but how we got there is quite often very different than what we anticipated.
NFC- Really, is there a better homefield advantage right now than the Superdome? I just don't think so. This New Orleans crowd may be one of loudest, most raucous I have ever heard. If Favre throws a TD pass early on, do you really think that will silence them? Not me. They've seen Brees and co. come from behind. No big deal if Minny makes a big play or two, they should, they're a good team. But how many mistakes one makes will be the difference, we all know that, and a crowd, the right crowd, the 12th player, can induce one or two, perhaps more, and help suck the life out of your hope in the 4th quarter. That may be all it takes.
Dec. 27, 2009, 29-15, Jets. The Colts caught alot of flack over this one. ALOT. This was no ordinary loss. Indy, you gave the game to the Jets and what probably seemed like the whole world (except Jet fans of course), despised you for doing this. You sacrificed a perfect season and shunned history to insure your health and well being for a playoff run and the opportunity to be the best team in the NFL. So misunderstood, yet you are only 2 wins away from this. Now you get to play the same team which had you questioning your own thoughts and motives. The team that beat you, 2nd string or not. Are you mad yet? Are you happy to play this team which forced so much criticism of your team, your coach? I suspect you are, as I know I would be. It's human nature. You would never admit this of course, only enough room for one Rex Ryan in this league. But I know, as one hockey player last night so eloquently admitted about a fight, you must be "lickin' your chops" over this game.
There is a multitude of talent on all 4 of these teams, they wouldn't be here otherwise. In a sport dominated by physical prowess, it may be that little unseen, mental advantage that decides the winner. Find it, if you can, and you will reap the benefits.
Good Luck to all!!!