SB Discussion Thread & Analysis

Covers brothers, FINALLY the time has come for the SB! 

I will be in Vegas for the big game! Before we begin the discussion, a disclaimer that I have a futures bet on the Rams to win the SB. 

Before the season started, I had a vision that the LA Rams would win the SB. Am I some genius who could predict the future? Of course not. The reason that I thought this was multifactorial. It was, in large part due to the acquisition of Mathew Stafford, most certainly an upgrade at the QB position. But there is more to it than that. The year before, I had taken a large future bet on the Bucs at week #8 and this Rams team has a lot of the same key ingredients when it comes to selecting teams that are SB contenders. The biggest, at least for me, is how they perform in the trenches with their O-line and D-line. The Bucs had a top 5 offensive and defensive line the year prior, and I felt that the Rams (and 49ers) were perfect to make a deep run. Not only was the line play crucial, but so was their overall defense (remember the saying, defense wins championships which could not be more true looking at previous SB winners). Lastly, the last key ingredient is previous playoff experience. The Rams had just been to a SB vs. the Patriots under McVay and the 49ers had recently been to a SB vs. the Chiefs. Therefore, for me, my biggest positions this year was on the Rams & 49ers. 

To recap, the 3 key ingredients were:

1. Solid offensive & defensive line ranking

2. Total overall defense

3. Previous playoff experience

No way did I envision that the Rams would acquire OBJ who has completely turned his career around nor did I ever think that they would get a future HOF and current top 5-10 pass rusher in Von Miller but I was obviously ecstatic with these acquisitions mid season. So, I took a shot before the season started and flew to Vegas to place a relatively large futures bet on the Rams to win it all.

Futures: 

Rams +1200 - $3,000/$36,000 

SF 49ers +1200 - $1500/$18,000

Disclaimer: I also had props on potential SB matchups including KC vs Rams +2800 ($250/$7,000) and KC vs 49ers +3000 ($300/9,000). Obviously, before the SB, this was the best position to be in because I was almost guaranteed to turn a profit. My plan was to wait until the SB and to hedge because despite riding the Rams all season long, I actually truly believed that they would probably lose to the Chiefs, but I did not think that either the Rams or 49ers would lose to the Bengals. I never would have envisioned the Rams playing the Bengals but I am glad that I did not hedge to take KC to win it all last week before the Bengals game. 

Despite the large future bet, I will NOT be hedging and I hope to articulate why in the thread below.

I would also like for this thread to including general SB discussion with input from everyone not only on the game and total, but also strong consideration to positive EV proposition bets.  

Let us take a closer look at some analytics. 

To me, the Rams are the far better and more talented team. They *belong* here. That is not to say that the Bengals are not talented or that they somehow do not belong. They most certainly do! But, I feel the Bengals had a lot of fortunate bounces go their way to get here (Late INT by both Tannehill and Pat Mahomes). When comparing the two teams, I just feel that the Bengals are outclassed not only by the talent that the Rams possess but also when looking at the raw metrics. 

Based on PFF (pro football focus) metrics, the Rams are the #2 overall team (#1 defense, #7 offense) vs. the Bengals who are the #7 overall (#20 defense, #3 offense). 

The Rams outperform the Bengals in every statistical category except for time of possession and kicking. That is it! The Rams are superior in points/game, yards gained, yards allowed, red zone efficiency, and penalties. 

Joe Burrow.

I think that they key to the Rams winning the game are:

1. Stafford has to continue to play mistake free football and take care of the ball (6 TD, 1 INT in playoffs)

2. Rams have to dominate the line of scrimmage and run the ball the ball effectively against the Bengals D-line

3. Rams have to generate pressure on Burrow to force sacks and turnovers 

I think that the Rams are capable and will do all 3 of the things mentioned above. 

#1. Matt Stafford is playing like the seasoned veteran that he is. He looks like a man on a mission. He has the monkey off of his back after his first playoff win. He parlayed that by retiring Brady in Tampa, and then battled Jimmy G. and beat a division rival that they had lost to 6 times in a row. Surely, his confidence is peaking. He should have no trouble sitting in the pocket and picking apart this Bengals secondary. The Rams have the #7 graded O-line before the season. 40 year old Andrew Whitworth is arguably the best pass blocking left tackle in the NFL. He allowed 16 pressures across 15 games while protecting Matt Stafford blindside, while Rob Havenstein graded as a 81.7 on the other side. The line looked impressive throughout the season and has continued to impress throughout the playoffs which certainly at least factors into why Stafford is making good decisions with delivery of the football and why he is completing 72% of his passes in the playoffs. 

Rams O-line grading

LT Andrew Whitworth | 86.1
LG David Edwards | 67.5
C Brian Allen | 80.1
RG Austin Corbett | 69.6
RT Rob Havenstein| 81.7

Bengals O-line grading

LT Jonah Williams | 77.9

LG Quinton Spain| 72.3

C Trey Hopkins| 51.4

RG Hakeem Adeniji | 48.4

RT Isiah Prince (former 6th round pick) after Riley Reiff was placed on IR

Looking at the metrics just for the O-line, I think it tells the tale of how this game should go. I just see the Rams being able to protect Stafford much more effectively and establishing the run vs. the Bengals #25 rated defensive line and conversely, I have a hard time seeing how Hakeem Adeniji and Isiah Prince are going to block Aaron Donald and Von Miller. The battle in the trenches, to me, is the biggest key of the game.

@ActionMagnet

He has definitely been impressive but I have some stats on him that concern me for this game. 

He was sacked 51 times in the regular season and sacked 12 times in three playoff games

Stafford was sacked 30 times in the regular season and sacked only 5 times in three playoff games. 

Bengals Losses:

Sept 19 @ Bears - Burrow 2 TD, 3 INT, 5 sacks

Oct 20  vs GB - Burrow 2 TD, 2 INT, 3 sacks

Oct 31 @ Jets - Burrow 3 TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks

Nov 7 vs Browns - Burrow 0 TD, 2 INT, 5 sacks

Dec 5 vs Chargers - Burrow 1 TD, 2 INT, 6 sacks

Dec 12 vs 49ers - Burrow 2 TD, 0 INT, 5 sacks

In each of the Bengals losses where Joe Burrow played, he took AT LEAST 3 sacks and of the 6 losses, he took 5 or more sacks in 4 of them. Clearly, like every other quarterback, the pressure negatively affects him and in his losses during the regular season, the opposing team has been able to get to him. Based on the metrics that I pointed out above, I just don't see how he gets away from Aaron Donals, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd. He is going to be under fire all game and it is going to affect his ability to throw. 

Nice work

How many sacks did Donald have in his very first Superbowl game? Will he be Mr. Invisible again? 

Nice write up I’m also on rams 

will be at Bellagio 

heard no super bowl parties this year get your seats at the bar early 

Scanning my db for some interesting SB morsels;

How about this one, CC DOGS who win and go to SB, how do they fare S/U and ATS?

I go back to 1987, twice ('18 and '00) both CC winners were underdogs so removed from consideration.

16 Times a winning CC dog went to the big game and posted the following;

11-5 S/U (9-5 as dog, 2-0 as fav)
12-2-2 ATS (losses occurred way back in '94,'98, record since '99, 10-0-2)

Glimmer of hope for the Bengals.

Nice analysis thus far. Think you should also highlight the wins Burrow has in games where he was also sacked alot. But you're right the Rams have the D-line advantage no question. 

@lancer89074

In the super bowl against the Pats, Aaron Donald registered zero sacks, had one tackle, and assisted on four other tackles. Brady was only sacked once that game. 

To suggest Aaron Donald has the potential to be “invisible” is just laughable. He is the best defensive player in the game. Not just at DT, but on defense. Ask any player, coach, analyst. Teams game plan around him. 

The difference in that game was 1) the patriots line was much better than the Bengals 2) he was facing Tom Brady. Tom gets the ball out so quickly and you may have seen on NFL films from that game where Donald gets super close to Brady and he zips the ball out and says to Donald “you think I’m gonna let you hit me”. Whereas Burrow has a tendency to hold onto the ball for so long which why he was sacked so many times during the regular season. 

The other issue is that if Donald draws double teams like we anticipate that he will, that will free up edge rushers like Von Miller and Leonard Floyd. These guys were not available for the Rams during the Pats SB. 

@Digitalkarma

During the regular season, the games that the Bengals won, the following are where he took 3 or more sacks. Obviously, the more sacks he takes, the less likely they are to win and there were only 2 games where he took 4 or more sacks that they won. That is why his ability to get the ball out quick and the protection he is afforded is key. 

Week #1 vs. Vikings - 5 sacks

Week #11 at LV Raiders - 3 sacks

Week #15 at Broncos - 3 sacks

Week #16 vs. Ravens - 3 sacks

Week #17 vs Chiefs - 4 sacks

When you look at his victory against the Chiefs in week 17, he took 4 sacks. In the playoff meeting, he reduced that to 2 sacks and they won that game. Obviously, he had to scramble a lot and was running for his life but he made key throws to his skilled guys and backs to avoid taking sacks and he will have to do that in this game. 

Does anyone know the SU and ATS record for coaches during their first appearance in the SB?  

Rams should win this one and cover the 4-5 points although I wouldn't give up too much more then that. The time to bet this one was immediately after the championship game when you could have gotten the Rams at -3.5.  The Bengals will fight hard the whole game but I think the Rams offense will eventually just take over. The Rams should be able to move the ball the way that KC did in the first half last week and that means they will score or be in scoring position on almost every drive. Lots of credit to Cincy for stepping up defensively in a few key moments but, who's going to stop Kupp and ODB? Just too difficult for a team with a just slightly above average defense. Cam Akers is running better and better every game also. If the Rams can have a good mix of run and aggressive passing they should score 30 if they want to. I can't see the Bengals scoring more than 24 with the kind of pressure Burrow will be under. If he folds completely they may only score 10-13. No way the Rams score less than 27 IMO. GL guys.

For the record, I think the Rams win the game. I have a large futures and therefore, I am just playing that plus any props that I like. If I were to bet this game, and had to take a side, I would take the Bengals with the points, especially if the line sits at +4 or more. The value is with the Bengals + the hook. Like all of these playoff games, the teams have been evenly matched and the game has gone down to the wire. 

I think the Rams win SU. I think the Bengals cover with the points. 

My only caveat is:

You better hope your sphincter doesn't tighten up in the second half when McVay does absolutely nothing regarding adjustments if it's a tight game.

Thank you for all the time, dedication, and passion regarding your thoughts on this game.  It's a thread worth reading.

@Ih8coldweather

 Thanks for your words 

You could definitely try Bengals +4.5 and possibly middle your future. +100 juice would be tits.

Good Luck 

I have a better stat for people who like superstitions instead of stats for handicapping.  If you go back last twenty years and just faded the AFC west or NFC west team in any given Super Bowl here is your record.

7-1 overall straight up if you simply faded the super bowl team from the AFC or NFC west divisions in the big game.  Two times a west division winner won was when both the AFC West and NFC West were both in the super bowl.  Kanasas city beat 49ers, and Seattle beat Denver.  

Denver beating Carolina was the only time in last twenty years this system failed.

@Cooler999

Thank you, I really appreciate that. It is nice when we all can out our heads together and have a good discussion about a game. 

@undermysac

I am seeing a lot of comments on the coaching angle for this game and how somehow Sean McVay is the inferior coach. I think that experience matters a lot here. The Bengals are inexperienced. However, the Rams, on the other hand, have been to the SB recently and made several playoff runs. 

Sean McVay's coaching record is as follows: 

2017: 11-5

2018: 13-3

2019: 9-7

2020: 10-6

2021: 12-5

Total: 55-26, 67.9% win percentage, including 2 NFC championships. He has only had one season where he has less than 10 wins during the regular season and in his short career, he has now been to two SuperBowls. I think that he will have this offense ready and they will put up points against the Bengals by establishing the running which will set up the play action and passing game effectively. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few gadget plays either. As for the challenges last week - a lot of those calls come from the booth and we really can't know for sure what they were telling him from upstairs. That has to be a point of emphasis this week. 

Go Rams 

Guys, seems like the whole forum likes the Bengals + points. Does anyone like the Rams SU? 

Also, I’m really trying to find this stat - what is the SB SU record for coaches playing in their first SB? 

@Ih8coldweather

 Not to be confused with the 30-28 Cincinnati advantage (using the Stram method), first time SB coaches are 28-30 S/U through the years.
Including first timers John Harbaugh beating little brother Jim in SB 47.

Super Bowl 56 is on next Sunday, not sure about the 58?