SB Futures: Can the Niners make history? (Writeup)

I know, no rookie has ever led a team to win the SB, but this feels different. I have waited all year to pull the trigger on this furnitures bet because I knew Jimmy G would not make it through the regular season (and he didn’t) and needed to see how the Niners would respond without him.  I like what I have seen so far and I’m worried that if I wait any longer this price of +650 for the Niners to win it all will go down, especially if the Vikings and Cowboys continue to suck and/or the Eagles lose a couple of games in the next few weeks. Below are the reasons I like this Niners squad to get the monkey off their back and finally win the Super Bowl.

1. Except for the QB, they are a veteran team that’s been in big games and has come close to winning it all. They are hungry, motivated, experienced and led by a great coaching staff.
2. In a strange way, once Jimmy G went down the pressure on the team to win it all got less. It was as if the team had to prove they can get Jimmy over the hump and Jimmy had to prove he can do the same for the team. It was added mental baggage. With Purdy as QB, and no rookie ever winning a SB, the 49ers are suddenly a “nobody thinks or expects we can do this” team, at least historically.
3. The team is not over-reliant on the QB to succeed. Purdy just has to manage the game, and Shanahan is experienced in creating game plans for QBs with little experience.
4. The team’s strength is its defense, which is historically good, and its running attack. Both will travel well and withstand the cold weather in the playoffs.
5. The team is deep and can withstand injuries. Even without Debo, Mitchell, and Jimmy G, the offense is humming. Debo and Mitchell will both likely return for the playoffs, giving the team added depth and an insurance policy in those positions. The only player the Niners can’t afford to lose is Bosa. He is the ultimate game changer, and the Niners will only go as far as he takes them.
6. Of all the teams in the field, the Niners boast the best defense, the best running game and one of the top coaching staffs in the league. The Vikings are smoke and mirrors, the Cowboys can’t get out of their own way, and the Eagles are not playoff tested: this is not the same team that went to the SB 5 years ago.
7. The AFC is more competitive than the NFC, with most of the top QBs in the league, but the Niners will only have to beat one of those QBs if they get to the SB.
8. Looking at the draw in the NFC, Niners will either go to Minnesota for the second round or have Minnesota visit them, if they finish ahead of the Vikings. I like the Niners in either scenario. That’s also more preferable than playing Dallas, which is probably what the Eagles will face. And if Dallas wins against Philly, the NFC championship will be in SF.
9. The Purdy (Mr. Irrelevant) story is damn compelling, and I expect the media and NFL to milk this thing for all it’s worth. In other words, I expect the Niners to be the beneficiary of those 50/50 calls.

Wasn't Brady a Rookie

Technically, no. It was his second. 

no niners come short even if they make it

Shanny might run CMC right into the medical ward, the way he's over using him.

What do the Niners look like without him and Iliaja Mitchell?

Gnarly defense 

@begginerboy

Great write-up, you make a strong case, one that I am totally in agreement with. As it stands today, San Fran is the best team in the NFC IMO.

I have a play on 'the little engine that could'  (Brock Purdy) to win the Bowl at 7-1 odds.

I also have a 30-1 future on the Bengals (a Bowl loser from the prior year has never won before) along with the QB rook has never won before. What better story-lines than that? I also think that Cincy is the best team in the AFC. 

Of course the danger with betting these futures is unforeseen injuries to key players (hoping that Burrow and Purdy stay healthy and holding my breath). BOL BB

If their defense keeps playing like this then imo yes they have a good chance 

Lol homer alert, hopes and dreams

will be interesting to see how purdy performs as they get more film on him and how he handles the playoff pressure.  I could def see them in the sb though if he doesn't screw it up as the eagles don't seem dominate to me.    not much value though only +650 for something that has never happened.

Good thing you quit betting!    

It has never happened, you are right. But this reminds be a bit of the Foles situation or a Dough Williams or a Jeff Hostetler, though none of them were rookies, but they were also not starters or stars. 

I am not betting week to week anymore. My last real bet was the Warriors winning the West last year at +400 for 10 units and after I withdrew my winnings I put a unit on the lions to win over 6.5 games and another unit on them to win the division. This is my first bet of any consequence since that time. Occasionally I get free bets for 25$ from the various sportsbooks and I I’ll play those for fun. 

Being a homer can certainly be a disadvantage but it can also give you great insight into the workings of a team if you can manage your own emotions and fandom. I am more jaded and dispassionate than I used to be, especially when it comes to the Niners. But this team looks like it’s on a mission, and only injuries will derail them. 

@begginerboy

 Again I think that's the homer in you, I don't see it. I believe 49ers are fool's gold yet again this year 

I’ve been patiently waiting for this thread. I knew it was coming.  

@Buffalobob89074

 Had my SF and bungle to win SB 3 weeks ago my self .. 

it will be great if they both in SB. Then I don’t need to hedge. 

BB- my only concern is a road NFCCG @ PHILLY.

Will be an extremely difficult game to win with a rookie QB.

Whats the line on that game both team healthy and Niners starting Purdy?

Philly -4 if Hurts is healthy.

Jimmy G could return in 7-8 weeks, that would make him available for the later rounds of playoff.

Twitter, Adam Schefter 

Probably Philly -3. But I’m not worried about that game if they get there. As long as the Niners can run the ball, they’ll be fine. Everything is predicated on the run. Hopefully they will have both Debo and Mitchell back by then. 

i would like them too go i hope they do with purdy playing they solved their biggest weakness they a had if the play broke down jimmy was a sitting duck or he would make an awful play,now with Brock he i athletic and  is a threat too run the D look great the only thing is what happens when they play an elite offense , i can see them winning the nfc, i actually think if lions win out , they have the personnel too challenge  the D the eagles too everyone else the niners shutdown, now if they play th e bills,chiefs or bengals i think that would be the challenge athletic teams,

A healthy SF beats anyone in the NFC comfortably not named Dallas. Dallas and SF teams are built almost identical, great pass rush and lean on running game. That one will come down to who coaches better/has the better gameplan if they meet in the playoffs. 

The only path for the 49ers is not facing the Cowboys and Eagles in the NFC side of the playoffs and cannot face Chiefs at the Super Bowl since the Chiefs dominated the 49ers with Jimmy G. Backup QB Purdy cannot handle the defense of the Cowboys and Eagles. 49ers got a chance against the Bengals based on history. 

Super Bowl is most likely Chiefs or Bengals vs Cowboys or Eagles. 

Niners and eagles are the most talented in nfc. Clear favorites. Regarding purdy i noticed some passing weakness in the last game.  Commanders will give us a preview against a good defense.  Commanders offense suck so might only get a half of tape before their d gets tired.