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#1
(Pure Points Model) Seatte -6.5 @ San Francisco +6.5
Seattle L3@way
Cinn 14-27 25.5 <-- ( My own custom team power ratings)
GB 17-27 26.5
Stl 11-27 20
TPD > 42-81 24(aopr)
42-81= --39( negative point differential) +9= -30 div 3gms = -10pppg
aopr( 24)-10pppg = 14
Seattles road rating --> 14
Offensive road rating: 14
Defensive road rating : 27
Seattle giving up more on defense than scoring on offense in a recent form calculation of their last 3 games on the road using my own custom power ratings and a pure points analysis. Seattle's defense is not the same defense that went to the SB in'13..that is for sure. SF actually sporting the better home defense this year compared to Seattles road defense giving up 27 pppg vs good competition but still losing to that caliber of competition (24) by 10pppg
SanFran L4Home
Balt 22-20 21.5
G Bay 3-17 27.5
Minny 17-3 17.5
42-40 22
42-40 = 2 -9 = -7 dv by 3gms = -2.5 pppg
aopr 22 -2.5 = 19.5 + 3hfa = 22.5
SF Home rating : 22.5
Offesive home rating 17
Defensive home rating: 17(E. Mangini Defense)
SF scoring just a tad more than giving up on defense. Howeve,r its very minimal. The area that stands out is SF defense under Eric Mangini. This is almost the same defensive ratings we had seen when SF was loaded with top notch players that have now departed. Week 4 they held Aaron Rodgers/GB offense to 17 points and Flacco/Baltimore to 20 That's not bad....they didn't give up 30 to these 2 guys and I dont think Wilson will score more that 17.Also Wilson's QB #'s /rating QBR is far worse than AR/JF. but he does hold that elusive scat back B+ rating. The down side: he is prone to turn the ball over. ( 25-26 times past 2 years)
If Kapernick can limit the mistakes..(tall order) he could have a good game vs Seattle D and take care of Seattles defensive issues. These 2 teams know each other very well and Seattle just doesn't have that quality defense on the road as in the past. they lost their last division game on the road 11-27 from a pure points standpoint instead of 31-34 taking advantage of St louis 's offensive miscue and turnovers.
SF +6.5 is a bit to much for a 17 rated home defense that can keep them in the game. SF is 3-1 ats as home dog this season and may give Seattle a game because of their defense familiarity with Seattle. .SF also 11-0 w/div revenge vs opp off BB losses
Seattle 1-6 ats RF off SU loss.
0-7 vs opp off a su/ats dog win w revenge
Seattle Road rating 14
SanFran Home rating +HFA/better defense -> 22.5 an 8.5 pt advantage
San Fran +7 ( hook/safe)
20-17 SanFran...Seattle loses another one
Seattle L3@way
Cinn 14-27 25.5 <-- ( My own custom team power ratings)
GB 17-27 26.5
Stl 11-27 20
TPD > 42-81 24(aopr)
42-81= --39( negative point differential) +9= -30 div 3gms = -10pppg
aopr( 24)-10pppg = 14
Seattles road rating --> 14
Offensive road rating: 14
Defensive road rating : 27
Seattle giving up more on defense than scoring on offense in a recent form calculation of their last 3 games on the road using my own custom power ratings and a pure points analysis. Seattle's defense is not the same defense that went to the SB in'13..that is for sure. SF actually sporting the better home defense this year compared to Seattles road defense giving up 27 pppg vs good competition but still losing to that caliber of competition (24) by 10pppg
SanFran L4Home
Balt 22-20 21.5
G Bay 3-17 27.5
Minny 17-3 17.5
42-40 22
42-40 = 2 -9 = -7 dv by 3gms = -2.5 pppg
aopr 22 -2.5 = 19.5 + 3hfa = 22.5
SF Home rating : 22.5
Offesive home rating 17
Defensive home rating: 17(E. Mangini Defense)
SF scoring just a tad more than giving up on defense. Howeve,r its very minimal. The area that stands out is SF defense under Eric Mangini. This is almost the same defensive ratings we had seen when SF was loaded with top notch players that have now departed. Week 4 they held Aaron Rodgers/GB offense to 17 points and Flacco/Baltimore to 20 That's not bad....they didn't give up 30 to these 2 guys and I dont think Wilson will score more that 17.Also Wilson's QB #'s /rating QBR is far worse than AR/JF. but he does hold that elusive scat back B+ rating. The down side: he is prone to turn the ball over. ( 25-26 times past 2 years)
If Kapernick can limit the mistakes..(tall order) he could have a good game vs Seattle D and take care of Seattles defensive issues. These 2 teams know each other very well and Seattle just doesn't have that quality defense on the road as in the past. they lost their last division game on the road 11-27 from a pure points standpoint instead of 31-34 taking advantage of St louis 's offensive miscue and turnovers.
SF +6.5 is a bit to much for a 17 rated home defense that can keep them in the game. SF is 3-1 ats as home dog this season and may give Seattle a game because of their defense familiarity with Seattle. .SF also 11-0 w/div revenge vs opp off BB losses
Seattle 1-6 ats RF off SU loss.
0-7 vs opp off a su/ats dog win w revenge
Seattle Road rating 14
SanFran Home rating +HFA/better defense -> 22.5 an 8.5 pt advantage
San Fran +7 ( hook/safe)
20-17 SanFran...Seattle loses another one
0
BOL Wizer. With you on this one.
...lol. 
wizest 
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