@undermysac
That's what makes it nearly impossible to win long term
The ghost in the room, but really the elephant. The 10% tax.
You make $100k in bets and hit 50% you give away 5% or $5k
Unlike the stock market which costs you nothing. Or bonds which pay u back.
That said some people can still make money at it. 53% is not a lot to ask for to break even. But then u gotta add time and expenses.
Following up on vanzack comments and other good comments in this thread
That dude is very sharp and disciplined. If you are that sharp and that disciplined then play with sports gambling and don't work at it. Work making money the easy way, in the business world. Then come back here and play without studying all the details like Vanzack does. At least that is what I do, It's play money for me, especially since I've been playing with house money for three years now. Making serious money gambling is too hard, why bother even trying. You are swimming upstream trying to make money gambling and you are swimming downstream if you are in the upper 2 percent of the work force. Anyway I love football and gambling makes it fun IF you aren't a sucker.
Yeah the stock market is made to make money, bonds are rigged to make money, owning a house is rigged to make money after you sell your blood to the bank lender
Sports gambling is rigged to LOSE money. If they find out you make money, the can limit or ban you. And they set limits just so they don't take a big risk on you making money.
If you lose $ at sports gambling u gave up the opportunity cost of other things to go with a terrible syatem rigged against u
Now...gamble away!! Loll
Here is how I suggest you ENJOY sports gambling. Give yourself a budget for a season. Only bet 5% on any bet, otherwise you will crash your account. Don't fool yourself for a second you know more than the books in terms of inside knowledge. Think of it like you are playing Bobby Fisher in chess. You will not outsmart the books, but you can outsmart the average bettor. But that gets you right about to the break even point. To make a profit you have to play all the tricks Vanzack knows and you have to be as sharp and disciplined as him. good luck with that.
Let's say you want to bet 20 bucks a game. OK, then deposit 400 bucks in an account and when the account shrinks or grows your bet shrinks to stay at that 5% of account. When the season is over, pull it all out, don't bet on sports you don't love. Expect to lose long term. If you don't, great but expect it. So let's say you lose 10% of every 20 dollar bet. That's a whopping 2 dollars that makes a 3 hour meaningless football between the Choirboys and the Eskimos fun and exiting.Now after you have done that for five years you get smarter and your percentage losses decrease to near nothing. Cool. So you never expect to win but what you are doing is making the great game of football a lot more fun.
Never forget the rule at the gambling table. If you look around the table and you don't recognize the sucker, it's you.
Agree lower the wager when ur cold. Bet $5 until you heat up again
vanzack has his own game. I've got mine. I would hate to be vanzack but he lowers risk and adds liquidity. It would drive me crazy to look for odds all the time. I'm way too old now and impatient for that.
I'm sure vanzack makes $ but he is some version of a loser in life, as is almost all of us here, including me even if i make $... unless we got a job getting paid doing this, we are most probably outcasts lol
1. Winning in betting is no easy task. It can suck as bad as anything when u go into downswings. It takes effort and mostly discipline
2. To win u need to find a good method to cap. You need a plan to follow once u have the method. And finally u need the balls and discipline to stick to that plan.
3. Study your plays. Objectively. Winning and losing plays. The best way to develop a good method is by studying your previous plays. When I say study I mean diving deep into them. What was wrong in your reasoning? What was right? Which factors did u miss? And then try to improve for ur next play
As someone pointed out.....95% of gamblers lose $$$. When I was younger, a bookie gave me some interesting info. I had bet on Notre Dame against Colorado in the infamous Rocket Ismail TD punt return called back by a penalty. He told me, "kid...EVERYONE in my book was on Notre Dame". He continued, "there are a some games in these instances where I lose and I have to pay out....but in about 90% of these cases,I(the house win)." He went further to explain because I had given him some good stock tips....."during football season, I lose 1 maybe two weeks out of the year." How have I found the BEST way to win at sports investing? First, you limit the amount of games you play. Second, since there are more losers than winners....it is much easier to bet against a loser player....than it is to follow a winning player. Third, some people have mentioned, I win one week and lose it back the next and more. My advice? BANK half your winnings and dont play with that money. THIS is a type of money management. Same thing like when you are in a winning stock trade. Move your stop up. Fourth and last....many of you dont have the aptitude and financial discipline needed.....QUIT....before sports investing wrecks your life.
Really 
Just do it for fun. No one really elite, or living well off this jig is posting on Covers or anywhere else. Everyone is a larper here. if you are here asking questions, you are just bait. If you are here answering questions you are just bait starring in your own role play fantasy. Go back and track those that post picks over the years, they are an abomination. No one here is sharp, high IQ, or even worth listening to about anything in life. Even Vanzack or whatever his name is, who probably is the most systematically disciplined here, is peak midwit. Obviously not high functioning, but mildly intelligent enough not to be an irresponsible oaf like the majority of the public. Pick your spots, play a bit to make the games more fun, put most of your extra wealth in a Vanguard, a SPY ETF, bitcoin, whatever....enjoy the rush.
@thepaisano
yeah you got it. the vast majority of us here are losers in life imo. whether we make $ at it or not (most of us don't)
we're gambling $ on sports games when we could be in a soup kitchen feeding the homeless or adopting a kid or something
that's just the reality imo
it's funny people play ego games here, you suck i'm great this that that this that. we all suck pretty much lol
Since we are on the subject....
Life balance is always an issue. Certainly more when I was younger than now. Relationships and important life events suffer because of all forms of work, especially one as consuming as sports gambling.
But one thought.... Just because you do one thing doesn't mean you don't do other things. I found and posted here about Bitcoin in 2013 thread when it was $13.50. There could be several millionaires because of that post alone. I have several businesses that I invest in and run (some passive, some active).
While it is a challenge - being a "loser" isn't an automatic. I like to think if you met me you might think I was a pretty well rounded person. But I haven't been my whole life - it came with age and experience - I didn't like myself very much 20 years ago and I doubt many people liked me either.
Life is difficult. For everyone. But I am thankful to sports gambling because it has allowed me to not have a real job for a very long time, and even though there are challenges - it have molded it in to something that I need it to be for me to be a fully evolved and functioning human.
Its very easy to passive aggressively comment on the internet about things outside of someone's knowledge bubble...this post #39 is a perfect example of the times we live in.
It helps to have an angle to make money doing this. And you probably need a new angle every 3 to 5 years because the books will catch up. Some guy was the first guy to do correlated parlays. He made huge money for several years then the books figured it out and it was over.
If you have the smarts and tenacity and everything else it takes to make money sports gambling, you can probably make a lot more money with a lot less risk doing other stuff.
Some good posts in this thread.
I would simply add, learn how to PICK WINNERS. Look at the matchup pages. Look for key injuries in the middle, like quarterback or center or middle linebacker. Look for schedule disadvantages. Cards could beat the Jags by DD if they HAD to, but will they? Or will they be looking ahead to the next 2 games vs Rams and NINERS. Look at trends. Cards are 0-5 ATS when scoring 30+ in the previous game. Look at MATCHUPS. Good defensive coaches like Belichick and Fangio routinely give fits to rookie QBs. We saw that last weekend. Rams have a good defensive line, and routinely give trouble to the Seahawks with their mediocre offensive line.
If you are so inclined, develop a system that makes sense to you. I use a modified points per yard system to help me evaluate NFL games.
Keep challenging yourself to get better. For example, I took a month to pick only underdogs, to get more comfortable backing them. Finally, stay disciplined, back the teams you have good reason to, and pass on the others. GL
On the topic of “picking winners” as stated above.
Here’s my take on a game I wagered know this past Sunday.
Saints -3.5
Panthers +3.5
Many bettors out there bet a team because “they see” them winning by 4+. They are betting through a lense that is just to beat the spread.
I wager more on buy or sell side of the number.
the opener in vegas was another great example of this. This is a market and you have to treat it as such.
I hope my words made sense.
What is losing?
Full disclaimer, I have no idea how much I've lost over the years but I'll bet my left nut I'm down money and a lot of it. My point though, is I don't care. Wagering is a hobby and if I'm up, I'm happy. If I'm down, I just load up the account with more funds. I suspect I'm in the 99% of gamblers who really have no clue how much money has vanished wagering sports. But I don't care because I enjoy doing it.
I know there are people who do this for a living but the question is, what defines living? Paying bills, scraping by week-to-week or pulling in a million a year... It's all subjective I guess.
Is very difficult especially for average guy that you will be better off making money working for Amazon and saving it then losing time and probably money doing this. Is just is very difficult.
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