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Setting my system aside for now until Friday... let's talk football

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Posted: #1
Green Bay/Atlanta 

Last week Atlanta opens -3.5 and closes around 6.5 AND SHREDS one of best defenses and now plays the west defense and the line only opens at 4??? A half point higher???

something very shady about that line
 
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Posted: #2
Are you saying shady because it should be higher?

Probably because ATL only won by 1 earlier this year at home 
 
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Posted: #3
I agree bpickin 

but I was thinking the line should only be -3 Falcons 


Anyhow I am automatic on GB so Im probably blinded here 
 
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Posted: #4
Atlanta put pressure on Russell Wilson on Saturday while Aaron Rodgers had enough time to write a novel while passing against Dallas. I think the key is if Atlanta's pass rush led by Vic Beasley and company can pressure Rodgers and get to him before he can get a good throw off. 
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by DeerPebbles:

Atlanta put pressure on Russell Wilson on Saturday while Aaron Rodgers had enough time to write a novel while passing against Dallas. I think the key is if Atlanta's pass rush led by Vic Beasley and company can pressure Rodgers and get to him before he can get a good throw off. 

PFF has the GB oline rated as the #1 pass protecting oline in the league, a far cry from the mess that is the SEA oline.
 
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Posted: #6
I also think the spread reflects the fact that Arron Rogers can, or potentially can, go TD for TD with that Atlanta offense.. Seattle didn't have the fire power to match scores with that offense 
 
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Posted: #7
Rodgers should be getting key players back...I'll take my chances with Rodgers any day over a shaky Matt Ryan....Just my opinion 
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Posted: #8
I thought the line would have been higher honestly considering Ryan should shred them wire to wire... or should he????? We know Rodgers will get his but can he go wire to wire as well? In my opinion ( which means crap which is why I uses systems) Rodgers is gonna bury them and Matt Ryan is gonna be too worried about blow in the game (because he hasn't gotten further) and it will cost him... Rodgers has been here before and knows that he has to give it his all wire to wire to win. Last time when Green Bay played Seattle they gave up at halftime. That won't happen again which is why they keep scoring so much each game...

I am waiting to see how my systems unfold this week, but I will be honest and say I bet a money line parlay all ready with Green Bay and Pitt.

Green Bay because of Rodgers is the manand Pitt because Goodell hates Brady for suing the league...

I will however make different wagers later on if I have to according to my system.
 
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Posted: #9
. that money line parlay is just an emotional and opionionated pick. And I have them both for futures as well so I was doubling down lol.

i probably shouldn't have made that bet tho because I have the futures, but I did t think of it until after I hit submit...


KEEP IN MIND. I follow my systems blind so I am prepared to make a bet on a different team if it presents itself... I never bet my straight bets with emotion...
 
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Posted: #10
I liked green bay & pittsburgh for the start of the playoffs & they both won me more money yesurday These 2 teams hade to run the table just to make the playoffs. 
 
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Posted: #11
Rodgers seems to always get his revenge... and losing by 1 earlier in the season had to really sting...
 
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Posted: #12
Return of Morgan Burnett is huge.. if this guy is out.. I am slamming the over

They have to double team Julio   they can't expect Gunther to cover him 1 on 1.. they got away with it a few times vs D Bryant and got burnt a few too..

Packers have a more healthier line up then a few months ago in the 1 point loss..

Cook is absolutely huge for Packers.. this guy is not soft J Graham

My play will likely be Packer TT over 28 which I expect the line to be.. win or lose Pack score 31  
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

Green Bay/Atlanta 

Last week Atlanta opens -3.5 and closes around 6.5 AND SHREDS one of best defenses and now plays the west defense and the line only opens at 4??? A half point higher???

something very shady about that line



Seattle's road defense in a "pure" points per game standpoint  was a medicore 22. Their road offense was terrible at 10-12 pppg. Green Bays offense @ 25 pppg their defense  24 pppg. The ability to score is the main factor. Seattle just couldn't score points on the road to take advantage of Atlanta's defense which is not that great. Only the top scoring offenses ie. Rodgers/Breese, can take advantage.  Because Atlanta scores 38 per game at home they were able to take advantage of Seattles soft defense. Seattles defense on paer looks good. Thats because they play good defense at home vs  bad offenses. Misconception at its best. Yes they can stop the run..what good is it  when they are on the road with that porous offensive line... Wilson couldnt run the offense..Its been like that since week 1   12 pppg vs Miami  wk 2 3 vs LA Rams  17 vs jets  13 vs NO  3 vs TBay  10 vs green bay  ( defense gave up 38) 15 vs SFran week 17. Mind you these are all pure points per game...not points they scored of opponents miscues. You cant give Seattle offensive points ( PF) when they score points off opp. turnovers. Thats it. Same goes for ant teams defense when they are not on the field. You cant chareg the defesne for something they had nothing to with. PR's for TD's...INT's for TD's etc People need to incorporate that type of stat into their capping.

Again Seattles pure points per game offense was 10-12 pppg most of the season, including their recent road game series ( last 4-5 road games). They were never able to keep up with Atlantas 38 pppg home offense with that type of offensive output.....hope this makes sense....
 
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Posted: #14
* you cant charge the defense
 
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Posted: #15
Is the over too obvious in this game? 
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

Green Bay/Atlanta 

Last week Atlanta opens -3.5 and closes around 6.5 AND SHREDS one of best defenses and now plays the west defense and the line only opens at 4??? A half point higher???

something very shady about that line

Because GB beat Dallas at HOME ...and the feeling is that Rodgers is as a much better QB than Ryan.

The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by NONEED4LUCK:

Is the over too obvious in this game? 

Not really, a couple of punts and turn overs could jeopardizing the OVER.

The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
 
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Posted: #18
I really like the Under in AFC CG ... think it will be a slugfest ...  just like KC game ... Steleers have to ride LB and keep TB in the sidelines ...
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

I thought the line would have been higher honestly considering Ryan should shred them wire to wire... or should he????? We know Rodgers will get his but can he go wire to wire as well? In my opinion ( which means crap which is why I uses systems) Rodgers is gonna bury them and Matt Ryan is gonna be too worried about blow in the game (because he hasn't gotten further) and it will cost him... Rodgers has been here before and knows that he has to give it his all wire to wire to win. Last time when Green Bay played Seattle they gave up at halftime. That won't happen again which is why they keep scoring so much each game...

I am waiting to see how my systems unfold this week, but I will be honest and say I bet a money line parlay all ready with Green Bay and Pitt.

Green Bay because of Rodgers is the manand Pitt because Goodell hates Brady for suing the league...

I will however make different wagers later on if I have to according to my system.


The reason line opened 4 and may seem low is because the masses of ave joe's think just like you, they love to back proven winners while fading guys who've never won or lost more in playoffs past.

The books know the masses will back Rodgers.

If you do your homework backing proven winners is foolsgold, backing the better team by effiency indicators will give you a far better record in the long run then backing proven winners and that'd be Falcons .

And you will get far better value with non proven winners because this deep in playoffs the line gets shaded to proven winners as we see here.

When proven winners win again it's because they play on teams better in effiency indicators and when proven winners no longer play on the better teams in these indicators like Seattle they get beaten and many times badly.

Where people get confused about proven winners is when the play on better teams and win then they say, see, see I told you the proven winner will win, well yea he played on the better team.

A much truer test of a proven winner is when he does not play on the better team and those results do not bode well for proven winners.

Had you back Rodgers as an unproven winner to win SB it would have taken you 2 trips to playoffs to win.

Had you backed him as a proven winner to win SB , 5 years later he still has not won it again or made it back again.

He even lost in his opening playoff game as a proven winner after going 15-1 in regular season but playing on a team which was out-gained in total yards in regular season which is again, a very poor indicator as a potential SB winner.

Bye teams that get out-gained in total yards you can kiss their arses goodbye in the playoffs, are you listening KC ?

And there's a 15-1 team with a proven winning QB who could not win a game in playoffs but could win as a unproven winner as a wild card 10-6 team that need the final game to make playoffs but was strong in total yards.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

I thought the line would have been higher honestly considering Ryan should shred them wire to wire... or should he????? We know Rodgers will get his but can he go wire to wire as well? In my opinion ( which means crap which is why I uses systems) Rodgers is gonna bury them and Matt Ryan is gonna be too worried about blow in the game (because he hasn't gotten further) and it will cost him... Rodgers has been here before and knows that he has to give it his all wire to wire to win. Last time when Green Bay played Seattle they gave up at halftime. That won't happen again which is why they keep scoring so much each game...

I am waiting to see how my systems unfold this week, but I will be honest and say I bet a money line parlay all ready with Green Bay and Pitt.

Green Bay because of Rodgers is the manand Pitt because Goodell hates Brady for suing the league...

I will however make different wagers later on if I have to according to my system.


I like the Goddell hates Brady angle....but I also believe that a Rodgers/brady superbowl has to happen at least once before Brady retires. The storyline of GOAT will be the talk across the country. Everyone and their grandmother will be argueing......Brady/Atlanta doesn't have the same appeal. This may very well be the best potential QB Superbowl matchup in league history and the NFL desperately needs an injection of life into the league that has lost viewership.

Also, what better way for Goddell to get a little more revenge than watching Brady and Co. lose in front of 100Mil+ audience.   There will be some key calls going Green Bays way..... .  bet on your own risk however ... I love conspiracy theories

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Wizz_KIDD35:

Rodgers should be getting key players back...I'll take my chances with Rodgers any day over a shaky Matt Ryan....Just my opinion 

What he said ^ BIG TIME!
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Maverickmax:


I like the Goddell hates Brady angle....but I also believe that a Rodgers/brady superbowl has to happen at least once before Brady retires. The storyline of GOAT will be the talk across the country. Everyone and their grandmother will be argueing......Brady/Atlanta doesn't have the same appeal. This may very well be the best potential QB Superbowl matchup in league history and the NFL desperately needs an injection of life into the league that has lost viewership.

Also, what better way for Goddell to get a little more revenge than watching Brady and Co. lose in front of 100Mil+ audience.   There will be some key calls going Green Bays way..... .  bet on your own risk however ... I love conspiracy theories


I def like this angle as well... one of best matchups ever with Green Bay and pats that will def bring the supreme audience and then goodell gets the last laugh when Brady loses YET again...
 
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Posted: #23
Brady = Most Accomplished 
Rodgers = Statistically GOAT
 
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Posted: #24
What is GOAT?
 
 
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Posted: #25
The reason line opened 4 and may seem low is because the masses of ave joe's think just like you, they love to back proven winners while fading guys who've never won or lost more in playoffs past.

The books know the masses will back Rodgers.

If you do your homework backing proven winners is foolsgold, backing the better team by effiency indicators will give you a far better record in the long run then backing proven winners and that'd be Falcons .

And you will get far better value with non proven winners because this deep in playoffs the line gets shaded to proven winners as we see here.

When proven winners win again it's because they play on teams better in effiency indicators and when proven winners no longer play on the better teams in these indicators like Seattle they get beaten and many times badly.

Where people get confused about proven winners is when the play on better teams and win then they say, see, see I told you the proven winner will win, well yea he played on the better team.

A much truer test of a proven winner is when he does not play on the better team and those results do not bode well for proven winners.

Had you back Rodgers as an unproven winner to win SB it would have taken you 2 trips to playoffs to win.

Had you backed him as a proven winner to win SB , 5 years later he still has not won it again or made it back again.

He even lost in his opening playoff game as a proven winner after going 15-1 in regular season but playing on a team which was out-gained in total yards in regular season which is again, a very poor indicator as a potential SB winner.

Bye teams that get out-gained in total yards you can kiss their arses goodbye in the playoffs, are you listening KC ?

And there's a 15-1 team with a proven winning QB who could not win a game in playoffs but could win as a unproven winner as a wild card 10-6 team that need the final game to make playoffs but was strong in total yards
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
My head hurts after reading that....So are you saying Falcons are the play?
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