I'd like to start a discourse about the following games: Minnesota -3 v Tennessee, Oakland +1 v New Orleans, Pittsburgh -3 v Washington, LA Rams -2 v SF.
Who are you guys thinking take these?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I'd like to start a discourse about the following games: Minnesota -3 v Tennessee, Oakland +1 v New Orleans, Pittsburgh -3 v Washington, LA Rams -2 v SF.
There's actually 3 games there I would not touch, its hard enough betting the first 4 weeks but all these games could go either way.
That being said, the most "sure" thing here is Minnesota to beat Tennessee. Titans allowed 122.4 rushing yards a game at home last season, top 5 worst in the league at home. I haven't seen enough changes made to that D to rectify that situation.
Vikings defense is special and their run game is obviously legit. All this doesn't even factor in Mariota's possible sophomore slump. Vikings look good here that's who I'd take
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There's actually 3 games there I would not touch, its hard enough betting the first 4 weeks but all these games could go either way.
That being said, the most "sure" thing here is Minnesota to beat Tennessee. Titans allowed 122.4 rushing yards a game at home last season, top 5 worst in the league at home. I haven't seen enough changes made to that D to rectify that situation.
Vikings defense is special and their run game is obviously legit. All this doesn't even factor in Mariota's possible sophomore slump. Vikings look good here that's who I'd take
Thanks for that nygj, any thoughts on pit -3? Why don't you feel comfortable with them in dc?
Well I just don't think it's as nice a play as the Vikings. NFL is one of the few sports where if you pick your spots you can have a comfortable degree of certainty in a bet, and I tend to lean towards the consistent teams I can trust in safer situations.
Steelers are a very good team, just don't like that it's in DC as the Skins were stellar at home last season. If Cousins doesn't regress and Norman pans out(not that anyone can cover Brown) It'll make life hard for PIT.
Skins also have a great run D so with Norman and some help they can slow down Brown and Bell just a bit and that makes me less confident at this point. I think there are better plays, I'd rather just play 2 or 3 games a week and win those than go snooping around in games im not totally sure of. Nothing wrong with liking the Steelers tho, It's week 1 what I need to see can't be put into place until week 5
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Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:
Thanks for that nygj, any thoughts on pit -3? Why don't you feel comfortable with them in dc?
Well I just don't think it's as nice a play as the Vikings. NFL is one of the few sports where if you pick your spots you can have a comfortable degree of certainty in a bet, and I tend to lean towards the consistent teams I can trust in safer situations.
Steelers are a very good team, just don't like that it's in DC as the Skins were stellar at home last season. If Cousins doesn't regress and Norman pans out(not that anyone can cover Brown) It'll make life hard for PIT.
Skins also have a great run D so with Norman and some help they can slow down Brown and Bell just a bit and that makes me less confident at this point. I think there are better plays, I'd rather just play 2 or 3 games a week and win those than go snooping around in games im not totally sure of. Nothing wrong with liking the Steelers tho, It's week 1 what I need to see can't be put into place until week 5
I fail to see a manner in which the skins can keep up w the steelers. What is Kirk cousins record against teams that finished w a winning record? Hint: he's never won.
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I fail to see a manner in which the skins can keep up w the steelers. What is Kirk cousins record against teams that finished w a winning record? Hint: he's never won.
The kicker with Washington game is that is at home. Cousins is ravensesque at home. They were almost automatic last year, lose on the road, play tough at home.
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The kicker with Washington game is that is at home. Cousins is ravensesque at home. They were almost automatic last year, lose on the road, play tough at home.
I would lean niners at home during prime time. I hate to speculate but I would guess gabbert is week one starter, in which case I would bet against Rams.
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I would lean niners at home during prime time. I hate to speculate but I would guess gabbert is week one starter, in which case I would bet against Rams.
idk guys, the raiders i can fade, the rams i can fade, but the steelers? the redskins literally played one semi tough home game last year, the 8-8 bills. the lowly saints, the bucs??
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idk guys, the raiders i can fade, the rams i can fade, but the steelers? the redskins literally played one semi tough home game last year, the 8-8 bills. the lowly saints, the bucs??
Steelers -3 looks way too easy as the line should be close to -6 based on public perception.
1. It's a home opener on prime time. Week 1 favs on MNF are 12-23 ATS, road favs are 4-10 ATS. Home openers have a special motivation for teams as we saw with the Niners last year.
2. The Steelers don't have an outstanding pass defense. Their secondary isn't good. While I am not high on Kirk Cousins at all, the Skins showed they can torch some below average secondaries at home.
3. Preston Smith, Ryan Kerrigan and Junio Gallette will be a force from the edge and I don't know whether Alejandro Villanueva can handle the pressure all game long. When I am informed right, DeAngelo Hall is playing FS from now on as a fulltime job. Without Martavis Bryant, the Steelers lack a dimension of stretching the field and Josh Norman will be on ABrown. Brown will win his fair share of routes without a doubt, but depending on formations it might be enough so that Ben has to go through more reads than he would like to.
There is no way the line will settle down at 3. I am looking forward to seeing +4/+5 for the Redskins in their home opener on MNF. That's solid value.
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Steelers -3 looks way too easy as the line should be close to -6 based on public perception.
1. It's a home opener on prime time. Week 1 favs on MNF are 12-23 ATS, road favs are 4-10 ATS. Home openers have a special motivation for teams as we saw with the Niners last year.
2. The Steelers don't have an outstanding pass defense. Their secondary isn't good. While I am not high on Kirk Cousins at all, the Skins showed they can torch some below average secondaries at home.
3. Preston Smith, Ryan Kerrigan and Junio Gallette will be a force from the edge and I don't know whether Alejandro Villanueva can handle the pressure all game long. When I am informed right, DeAngelo Hall is playing FS from now on as a fulltime job. Without Martavis Bryant, the Steelers lack a dimension of stretching the field and Josh Norman will be on ABrown. Brown will win his fair share of routes without a doubt, but depending on formations it might be enough so that Ben has to go through more reads than he would like to.
There is no way the line will settle down at 3. I am looking forward to seeing +4/+5 for the Redskins in their home opener on MNF. That's solid value.
Fyi....playoff teams frm the yr before are highly overvalued.....im lookin at the bears +5.5 at houston.....BOs first start was against them last yr in chicago....so they've seen him already....plus john fox was his HC his first few yrs in denver....new offense new defense for BO.....I like my chances...
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Fyi....playoff teams frm the yr before are highly overvalued.....im lookin at the bears +5.5 at houston.....BOs first start was against them last yr in chicago....so they've seen him already....plus john fox was his HC his first few yrs in denver....new offense new defense for BO.....I like my chances...
Fyi....playoff teams frm the yr before are highly overvalued.....im lookin at the bears +5.5 at houston.....BOs first start was against them last yr in chicago....so they've seen him already....plus john fox was his HC his first few yrs in denver....new offense new defense for BO.....I like my chances...
Chi getting way too many points there I completely agree Teasing them to 10 would be even nicer
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Quote Originally Posted by bobafett:
Fyi....playoff teams frm the yr before are highly overvalued.....im lookin at the bears +5.5 at houston.....BOs first start was against them last yr in chicago....so they've seen him already....plus john fox was his HC his first few yrs in denver....new offense new defense for BO.....I like my chances...
Chi getting way too many points there I completely agree Teasing them to 10 would be even nicer
Teams that finished with a better record the previous year than their first week opponent's record last year are automatic fades week 1.
I don't have my database in front of me, but it is >60% to go against the team that had a better record than their opponent from the previous year, in game 1.
Those teams to play ON in the above scenario are:
1) Cowboys
2) Broncos
3) Chargers
4) Lions
5) Browns
6) Bucs
7) Jags
8) Jets
9) Ravens
10)Dolphins
11) Bears
12) Titans
13) 49ers
14) Redskins
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Teams that finished with a better record the previous year than their first week opponent's record last year are automatic fades week 1.
I don't have my database in front of me, but it is >60% to go against the team that had a better record than their opponent from the previous year, in game 1.
I think the juiciest value pick week 1 is the Bears +6ish - granted it is on the road but I'd buy the extra point and roll with Chi overwhelming Brock in his first real game in Houston
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I think the juiciest value pick week 1 is the Bears +6ish - granted it is on the road but I'd buy the extra point and roll with Chi overwhelming Brock in his first real game in Houston
Teams that finished with a better record the previous year than their first week opponent's record last year are automatic fades week 1.
I don't have my database in front of me, but it is >60% to go against the team that had a better record than their opponent from the previous year, in game 1.
Those teams to play ON in the above scenario are:
1) Cowboys
2) Broncos
3) Chargers
4) Lions
5) Browns
6) Bucs
7) Jags
8) Jets
9) Ravens
10)Dolphins
11) Bears
12) Titans
13) 49ers
14) Redskins
NE (12-4) should be a play vs. AZ (13-3).
That is a fantastic system, Indigo999. Last year I was idle in Week 1 and I would love to bet some games right off the bat this year, but I would love to know how many years your database covers to have some confidence in the reliability of your system.
TIA.
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Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
Teams that finished with a better record the previous year than their first week opponent's record last year are automatic fades week 1.
I don't have my database in front of me, but it is >60% to go against the team that had a better record than their opponent from the previous year, in game 1.
Those teams to play ON in the above scenario are:
1) Cowboys
2) Broncos
3) Chargers
4) Lions
5) Browns
6) Bucs
7) Jags
8) Jets
9) Ravens
10)Dolphins
11) Bears
12) Titans
13) 49ers
14) Redskins
NE (12-4) should be a play vs. AZ (13-3).
That is a fantastic system, Indigo999. Last year I was idle in Week 1 and I would love to bet some games right off the bat this year, but I would love to know how many years your database covers to have some confidence in the reliability of your system.
The database goes back to 1989. Teams that were worse by 1-8 wins than their opponent from the previous year were 196-134 against the spread in week1.
It is particularly good for playing home favorites in this situation......ON the Ravens and Cowboys.
Wow - 59.4% ATS for a sample size of 330 games. That is a solid system! I do NOT like taking home favorites but I just might make an exception for these.
Good luck and thanks.
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Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
The database goes back to 1989. Teams that were worse by 1-8 wins than their opponent from the previous year were 196-134 against the spread in week1.
It is particularly good for playing home favorites in this situation......ON the Ravens and Cowboys.
Wow - 59.4% ATS for a sample size of 330 games. That is a solid system! I do NOT like taking home favorites but I just might make an exception for these.
If our team who finished with a worse record last year is playing an opponent that is due to be an underdog next week (meaning their opponent is probably not an elite team)....the record goes to 86-43 ATS...
Teams in that scenario would be playing ON: Lions, Jets, Browns, Fortyniners, Bucs.
If our play on team will be a favorite week 2, their record is 93-42-4 ATS.
ON: Broncos, Patriots, Chargers, Lions, Ravens, Bears
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If our team who finished with a worse record last year is playing an opponent that is due to be an underdog next week (meaning their opponent is probably not an elite team)....the record goes to 86-43 ATS...
Teams in that scenario would be playing ON: Lions, Jets, Browns, Fortyniners, Bucs.
If our play on team will be a favorite week 2, their record is 93-42-4 ATS.
ON: Broncos, Patriots, Chargers, Lions, Ravens, Bears
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