Something isn’t right, AFC is -120 to win SB BUT SF is favored

As of this moment 

AFC to win SB -120

NFC to win SB +100

However - the SB odds by team is as follows

49ERS  +145

RAVENS +180

KC + 380

LIONS + 800

What am I missing here ?

Well......what if the Lions win. 

@G8RB8

exactly. Except it be even money. Niners are favored vs balti and kc. -1.5 vs balti and -3 vs kc

Chiefs are going to win the SB...again

@ActionMagnet

 Who would you trust more in a big game Mahomes/Jackson OR Purdy?

Both AFC teams have better QBs with experience.

If Deebo is limited or sits out, I can't see the 49ers beating either team in the Super Bowl.

But like another poster said, 49ers are a heavy favorite on Sunday and should make it there. The AFC side is a toss up at least on paper.

What you are missing is an opportunity 

@the1toturn2

Yes.  Well played.

They are losing to detroit 

Only if Barry Sanders can still play...

Speaking strictly as a gambler & not as a fan of any team:

49'ers blowout the Lions...that's why there's a 14pt line swing from Detroit-7 & ats win to SF-7 & ats loss

Chiefs beat Ravens s/u...that's why that line is so low...a 6pt drop from -9' to -3' from Balty off a 24pt s/u win & KC off road dog

then KC becomes the 1st team to win B-B SB's, going Under in Vegas vs SF

Makes all the sense in the world, speaking strictly as a gambler

Thinking back in September. I bet the NFC -3 $113-100 { Rivers Casino } for this years Super Bowl. Just a hunch back then it's a NFC team Super Bowl win & cover. 

easy...

49ERS  +145  - 40.8%

RAVENS +180 - 35.7%

KC + 380 - 20.8%

LIONS + 800 - 11.1%

NFC is 51.9% to win

AFC is 56.5% to win

Obviously don't add up to 100%. That extra 8.4% is the bookies vig but you should get the idea

Why are the niners favored in a potential Baltimore SB matchup? Ravens destroyed them this year and all I’ve heard since then is how much better the Ravens are than the niners. That line doesn’t make any sense.

There are two reasons.

(1) The Ravens and Chiefs will both be almost a TD favorite over the Lions.

(2) The Chiefs are a longshot because (a) they're on the road, and (b) they're playing the best team remaining.  However, if they were to win, they would be a pick'em against SF, and the Ravens will be slight favorites over the 49ers.

Basically... the 49ers are favored because they are the heaviest favorite in this weekend's games, and therefore the most likely to be playing in the Super Bowl (according to Vegas, anyway)

Side note here....

The Ravens winning the Super bowl would easily be the worst case scenario for the major sports books.  Circa has been up front about this reality for weeks now.  Ravens were anywhere 20-1 to 25-1 last Spring when the Lamar trade talk was being tossed around.  Preseason they were in that 10-1 to 12-1 range if I remember correctly.  

@Aaaand-Its-Gone

 Because the Niners power rating is still higher than the Ravens.....Books will adjust slightly based on this weekends results but we are looking at SF -1 to SF -3 when that line comes out late Sunday evening into Monday, if that matchup ends up taking place of course.  

Actionmag that means there is some value on the NFC side 

Interesting  

@kcblitzkrieg

https://twitter.com/PatrickE_Vegas/status/1749126726356181228?t=iPP1RxIge5nMmOgSX1gQKg&s=19

I remember Lions being an off-season hype team makes sense to me. Niners will always gets bets because of their popularity 

@Digitalkarma

 Good stuff DK, thanks for sharing   

Kinda surprised Circa would have such a variance from other Vegas shops.... I would guess the variance has to do with their larger limits and their customer base being more professionals and the seasoned recreational bettors.  

My point is if you love the Ravens to win the SB. This is your chance to hit the +180.

@kcblitzkrieg

 Yup you nailed it. They had the best odds on Ravens futures at the time Jackson was in limbo. Could get Ravens at 35-1 in april while the rest of the books had 20-1 then. No doubt I took it 

If Ravens beat the Chiefs and Niners squeak by the Lions, Ravens might be favored over the niners by a little, or they might even open it up a pick em.

if Chiefs beat the Ravens and Niners squeak by the Lions, the Chiefs will be a short underdog to the Niners, but I would expect under 3 point dogs.

If Ravens beat the Chiefs and the Niners lose to the Lions then Ravens will be 4.5 point faves and it will move

If Ravens lose to the Chief and the Niners lose to the Lions then Chiefs are going to be favored by 3 to 3.5 over the Lions

If Ravens beat the Chiefs and the Niners blow out the Lions, then the Niners are going to be 1 to 1.5 point favorites over the Ravens

If Ravens lose to the Chiefs and Niners blow out the Lions then the Niners are going to be 2.5 to 3 point favorites over KC

My point is the algorithm is always changing based on most recent power ratings so by after the game the AFC -120 is history and irrelevant because the books have more data and the betting public has more recency bias.

Plus they have to factor in all of the future liability they have and create a line based on how much they have for each remaining team.