Posted:
#1
As of this moment
AFC to win SB -120
NFC to win SB +100
However - the SB odds by team is as follows
49ERS +145
RAVENS +180
KC + 380
LIONS + 800
What am I missing here ?
0
Something isn’t right, AFC is -120 to win SB BUT SF is favored
Posted:
#5
Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:
As of this moment AFC to win SB -120 NFC to win SB +100 However - the SB odds by team is as follows 49ERS +145 RAVENS +180 KC + 380 LIONS + 800 What am I missing here ?
bro it's because the niners have an easier path to the sb. They're 7 point favorite
As of this moment AFC to win SB -120 NFC to win SB +100 However - the SB odds by team is as follows 49ERS +145 RAVENS +180 KC + 380 LIONS + 800 What am I missing here ?
1
Posted:
#6
@ActionMagnet
Who would you trust more in a big game Mahomes/Jackson OR Purdy?
Both AFC teams have better QBs with experience.
If Deebo is limited or sits out, I can't see the 49ers beating either team in the Super Bowl.
But like another poster said, 49ers are a heavy favorite on Sunday and should make it there. The AFC side is a toss up at least on paper.
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Posted:
#11
Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:
As of this moment AFC to win SB -120 NFC to win SB +100 However - the SB odds by team is as follows 49ERS +145 RAVENS +180 KC + 380 LIONS + 800 What am I missing here ?
As of this moment AFC to win SB -120 NFC to win SB +100 However - the SB odds by team is as follows 49ERS +145 RAVENS +180 KC + 380 LIONS + 800 What am I missing here ?
Speaking strictly as a gambler & not as a fan of any team:
49'ers blowout the Lions...that's why there's a 14pt line swing from Detroit-7 & ats win to SF-7 & ats loss
Chiefs beat Ravens s/u...that's why that line is so low...a 6pt drop from -9' to -3' from Balty off a 24pt s/u win & KC off road dog
then KC becomes the 1st team to win B-B SB's, going Under in Vegas vs SF
Makes all the sense in the world, speaking strictly as a gambler
0
Posted:
#14
Quote Originally Posted by JiGGaMan24:
@G8RB8 Quote Originally Posted by G8RB8: Well......what if the Lions win. Then you're holding Lions -120 ML exactly. Except it be even money. Niners are favored vs balti and kc. -1.5 vs balti and -3 vs kc
@G8RB8 Quote Originally Posted by G8RB8: Well......what if the Lions win. Then you're holding Lions -120 ML exactly. Except it be even money. Niners are favored vs balti and kc. -1.5 vs balti and -3 vs kc
Why are the niners favored in a potential Baltimore SB matchup? Ravens destroyed them this year and all I’ve heard since then is how much better the Ravens are than the niners. That line doesn’t make any sense.
0
Posted:
#15
There are two reasons.
(1) The Ravens and Chiefs will both be almost a TD favorite over the Lions.
(2) The Chiefs are a longshot because (a) they're on the road, and (b) they're playing the best team remaining. However, if they were to win, they would be a pick'em against SF, and the Ravens will be slight favorites over the 49ers.
Basically... the 49ers are favored because they are the heaviest favorite in this weekend's games, and therefore the most likely to be playing in the Super Bowl (according to Vegas, anyway)
The Dude imbibes
0
Posted:
#16
Side note here....
The Ravens winning the Super bowl would easily be the worst case scenario for the major sports books. Circa has been up front about this reality for weeks now. Ravens were anywhere 20-1 to 25-1 last Spring when the Lamar trade talk was being tossed around. Preseason they were in that 10-1 to 12-1 range if I remember correctly.
You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
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Posted:
#17
@Aaaand-Its-Gone
Because the Niners power rating is still higher than the Ravens.....Books will adjust slightly based on this weekends results but we are looking at SF -1 to SF -3 when that line comes out late Sunday evening into Monday, if that matchup ends up taking place of course.
You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
0
Posted:
#20
@kcblitzkrieg
https://twitter.com/PatrickE_Vegas/status/1749126726356181228?t=iPP1RxIge5nMmOgSX1gQKg&s=19
I remember Lions being an off-season hype team makes sense to me. Niners will always gets bets because of their popularity
Sip on that plus money honey!
0
Posted:
#21
@Digitalkarma
Good stuff DK, thanks for sharing 
Kinda surprised Circa would have such a variance from other Vegas shops.... I would guess the variance has to do with their larger limits and their customer base being more professionals and the seasoned recreational bettors.
You will not survive here. You are not a wolf, and this is the land of wolves now...
0
Posted:
#24
If Ravens beat the Chiefs and Niners squeak by the Lions, Ravens might be favored over the niners by a little, or they might even open it up a pick em.
if Chiefs beat the Ravens and Niners squeak by the Lions, the Chiefs will be a short underdog to the Niners, but I would expect under 3 point dogs.
If Ravens beat the Chiefs and the Niners lose to the Lions then Ravens will be 4.5 point faves and it will move
If Ravens lose to the Chief and the Niners lose to the Lions then Chiefs are going to be favored by 3 to 3.5 over the Lions
If Ravens beat the Chiefs and the Niners blow out the Lions, then the Niners are going to be 1 to 1.5 point favorites over the Ravens
If Ravens lose to the Chiefs and Niners blow out the Lions then the Niners are going to be 2.5 to 3 point favorites over KC
My point is the algorithm is always changing based on most recent power ratings so by after the game the AFC -120 is history and irrelevant because the books have more data and the betting public has more recency bias.
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