Stop with the emotions and look at the math....Belichick made the right call

Why don't coaches show more confidence in their third stringers???

I mean sure the probability of actually winning the game with them is lower but win probability isn't what its all about.  Its all about making sure nobody's feelings get hurt.

I really don't understand this line of talk.  For one thing, he is showing confidence in them.  A key part of the equation is probability they can stop them from 28 yards. 

For another thing, why the hell does it matter whether he is "showing confidence" in them or not?  They are grown men being paid to win games.  There are about a million other much more serious slights they have to endure.  Yet for some reason, when it comes to this topic and this topic alone, people act like they are fragile little leaguers and the most important thing is that everybody gets to play.  Suck it up and do your job.

 

Belichick's decision was based solely on the fact that Peyton Manning is now in his head like they say he used to be in Manning's.

Hey I signed up for this website to get away from talking about work man, even on sports forums I end up being reminded about work hahah good luck on your picks this week

Are you still here? Ok first of all go back to my second post where I said I could talk about that all day long but I don't feel like wasting my time, If you really want to live in the past and discuss this then find someone else I was just giving my two cents. Second of all I don't think I'm wrong, I just respect tallguyindc's opinion or post or whatever I still haven't changed my opinion and I don't think I'm wrong lets make that clear. Third, my first post was opinion? If it wasn't opinion then what was it? so post all you want I won't answer anymore cause this is getting old it was fun for like 10 minutes

My 2 cents:

1 - Everyone is saying it's a bad call by Belichick because the mainstream news media said it was a bad call. Not because it actually was a bad call. And by the way, it was a good call. Tallguy is correct.

2 - I used to be shocked that most people who watch mainstream news at all (at least 75% of adult Americans I would guess) actually believe most of what is said or at least buy into the idea of a centralized yet honest mainstream news framework in America. Now I'm not shocked. I'm also not shocked that most everyone here is blindly following the mainstream sports media guys and chanting the zombie-mantra of "Belichick made a bad call". By the way, I will offer that on the Showtime NFL show, both Simms and Collinsworth thought that going for it was the right call, citing that Belichick must have also thought that his defense was tired, while Sapp and JB said wrong call. I'll respect a 2-2 sampling.

3 - Here is my angle: 2 minutes is too much time to give Manning from 65 yards out in that game. They had already put 2 TD's on the board that quarter. Ability to move the ball and defensive fatigue were in the favor of the Colts. All this moves me to say that the difference in probability of stopping the Colts from 28 yds out as opposed to 65 yds out is actually very little , due to the fact that field position means very little because you are giving Peyton Manning 2 minutes. So, I'm going to say that the difference between P28 and P65 is about 25%. I'll also say that the probability of converting the 4th and 2 is in the area of 50%. That's all that needs to be said. Belichick made the right call because Manning blunts a field position advantage with 2 minutes on the clock, or at least in this game he would have.

I'll close by saying that, the best argument against going for it is the argument that the actual difference in probabilites of P28 and P65 are more like 50%, and that Manning would not have been capable of hitting more than maybe 2 15+ yd completions on that last drive of about 65 yds, or he would have thrown a pick. I can live with that argument, but that only makes Belichick's choice a coin flip instead of an obvious decision.

How come almost nobody is even willing to admit that the probabilities of winning the game are in the neighborhood of equivalent for both tactics? I just boggles my mind .....

The whole believe-whatever-the-media-says-thing is more of a non-sports human nature discussion which really affects me and pisses me off. It represents everything that's wrong with organized society. Unfortunately, it does cross over into this discussion. It has everything to do with it. When people talk about free will and freedom of choice, the discussion can go to any one of a bunch of levels. Having a higher power influence your thinking just with suggestion is one of those levels.

Lambs. Baa-a-a-a-a.

This is so stupid.  

Malibu,

Did you even read the original post?

Nobody here ever talked about heroics or champion football or anything like that....

In fact it is the pro-punt group that is falling into pure cliches and not basic analysis....

 

"Do you take the high percentage conversion play that could yield only 30 yards which more than 50% of them fail to convert or do you punt and take the take 70 yards."

 

Like nearly everybody in the pro-punt group....instead of bothering to actually look up the real stats, you just make up your own. 

First of all, where the hell do you get 70 yards from????

You made it up!!!

The ball was on the 28.  The Patriots average a net of 35.5 yards.  That means 63.5 yards.

"which more than 50% of them fail "

The league average on 4th and 2 is 55.7%.  But this was Pats off/Ind Def.  which is a better matchup with a higher exp rate than league average.

But again instead of actually looking up stuff, you settle for making up your own numbers... 

can't you just put this to bed.....geez

I tend to agree that statistically it was a good call on Bellicheck's behalf and have been telling all my friends so. 

However, I think these numbers are well off.  There's only a 15% difference in Indy scoring a td from their own 30 yard line compared to new englands 29?? 

I realize this is Manning and the colts, but you HAVE to factor in the time situation.  I bet the true % of td's in this situation with timeouts, and 2:00 left is probably closer to 10%.  I realize that Manning is on a way different level than anyone else, so it is much higher than 10%. 

Also, the chances NE gets a first down on 4th and 2 in this situation is very unlikely to be as high as 60%.  Despite the situation, they were not running, as they were 5 wide.  It was basically a 2 pt conversion plays.  2 pt conversion pass plays on the road have hit at a 34.8% rate the last 3 years.  NE is a considerably better passing team than most teams, so I would guess the chances they got the 4th and 2 were closer to 50%. 

Overall, I'm pretty certain it was the right call, but I think your numbers are off.

"Overall, I'm pretty certain it was the right call, but I think your numbers are off. "

The numbers are open to a little bit of debate.  You need to start with the league baselines and make a number of adjustments for the specific situation.  My point wasn't to define the exact probability down to the third decimal point.  It was to define the framework and point people in the direction of the right numbers. 

It was also to emphasize just how wrong the status quo is.  The thing about the NFL is that everybody thinks that punting is the right thing to do because everyone else is doing it.  Its like a classroom where nobody did the homework.  They all just copy the other's kids' homework. 

By this point even the pro-punt crowd has gone from "that was obviously the dumbest decision ever" to well if you assign this probability to this component event, its a close call.....

"There's only a 15% difference in Indy scoring a td from their own 30 yard line compared to new englands 29??"

After thinking about this for a week, I think it might be closer to 20% difference in WP.  Still less than you thought, right? Thats one of the things about looking up the data.  It sometimes different than you thought it would be.  Your memory can play tricks with you.  I looked at these numbers a whole bunch of different ways.  Only Colts drives.  All NFL drives.  Only drives in the last 2 minutes, etc.  etc.  They all came back in the same 15-20% difference range.

I'd also emphasize that's the difference in win prob.  A diff between 50 and 30 WP still means you score touchdowns 67% more often with the ball at the 28 (50/30 = 1.6666)

"I bet the true % of td's in this situation with timeouts, and 2:00 left is probably closer to 10%."

There is a graph of all of the times teams have been in this position in the final 2 minutes of a game here:

https://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/two-minute-drill.html

As you can see, its far higher than 10% from your own 30.  With the other team in a prevent defense and your team willing to use all four downs, you score the TD more than you might think.

"2 pt conversion pass plays on the road have hit at a 34.8% rate the last 3 years.  NE is a considerably better passing team than most teams, so I would guess the chances they got the 4th and 2 were closer to 50%. "

There's a number of reasons why I think its higher than 50%, but 50% is in the acceptable "open to debate" range.  As I said before, this isn't designed to say there is a 53.47% chance of success.  Any number for the probability in this particular situation is going to be an estimate.  The point of this whole exercise is that estimate should have some basis in reality.

BTW...why exactly coaches always seem to pass on 2 pt plays when runs typically work better is another good topic for debate.

You should realize that those 2 pt conversion numbers are slightly skewed.  If the holder bobbles the extra point snap and then stands up to make a desperation throw to the endzone, the NFL counts it as a failed 2 pt try.  In reality, its a failed 1 pt try.

 

 

 

throw 4th & 2 out the window come playoffs when the games really matter