Posted:
#1
Fellow cappers.....
I rarely post on the forum these days but I often read posts of some of the respected cappers on here, and have won a good amount of money using their information and combining them with my own strategy. I only post when I feel the information can help benefit others in making their wagers. That said, I LOVE the Steelers and Packers to move on to the super bowl, for the following reasons:
I went 4-0 in the divisional round with my picks on the Steelers ML, Bears ATS, Packers ML, and Jets ATS. The logic for my wagers was based on the analysis posted by other cappers, my own research, and the defensive hog index criteria. Those that follow this in their betting, you'll find that it has a high success rate, along with several key variables. The DHI for the 2010 NFL season was as follows:
https://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1135_Def._Hog_Index.html
As you can see, the Steelers, Packers, Bears, and Jets all had a significant edge in DHI over their opposition and all covered. The DHI itself is not enough to guarantee a cover, but combined with other relevant factors, you can spot situations where a team can have a huge edge versus the opposition. In the division round, the following applied:
1) Steelers had a DHI edge over the Ravens in all 3 categories, and were playing at home. The Steelers edge over the Ravens in the running and passing game however was minimal, hence the Steelers did not have a major edge. I bet the ML because the Steelers were at home and Ravens were coming off a big game against a soft KC team and now went on the road to play a rugged defense. Neither team had a motivational edge.
2) The Packers had a DHI edge in two of the three categories against the Falcons. It didn't end there. The Packers had a HUGE edge in the QB position as Rodgers is one of the best pure passers in the game and Matt Ryan was very inexperienced in terms of playoffs. The Packers defense also had a major edge over the Falcons with everyone healthy. The only edge Atlanta had was the running game. The scoreboard pretty much tells the tale.
3) The Bears had an edge in all 3 DHI categories against the Seahawks, were playing at home, and had a motivational edge to avenge an earlier loss. The Seahawks were coming off an emotional high after beating the defending super bowl champs. Combine all these variables and it had a big Bears win written all over it.
4) The Jets had a major edge in 2 DHI categories and virtually the same in the other category. The Jets also had a motivational edge to avenge the humiliating 45-3 December loss. The Patriots had the pressure of being the #1 seed, had not lost at home all year, and had the burden of lofty expectations. Though the Pats had a huge edge in QB, the Jets had a major edge in the running game and the defensive line and corner backs to neutralize Brady. Combining all these variables would make it an easy decision to take the Jets to hang within 9.5 points.
That said, I like the Packers and Steelers to advance to the super bowl for the following reasons:
AFC Championship: The Steelers are coming off a very hard fought comeback win against their arch rival, and as poorly as they played, they willed themselves to win the 2nd half and the game. The Steelers have an edge in all 3 DHI categories, are playing at home, have an edge at the QB position in terms of playoff experience, and have a big motivational edge to avenge a December home loss to the Jets. The Steelers can also neutralize the Jets defense and running game with their own. The Jets will come off an emotional high after beating the Patriots, the Jets will see a noticeable difference in how difficult it'll be to run the ball on the Steelers (nobody has successfully ran the ball on Pittsburgh all year). This will essentially force Mark Sanchez to air it out to win this game. All signs point to a BIG win by the Steelers.
NFC Championship: Though the Bears have a DHI edge in two of the 3 categories, the Packers are not that far behind. The Packers have dealt with injuries and adversity all season and have finally gotten healthy and playing up to their potential. Their confidence is also sky high knowing that their offense is very explosive and can move the ball, which they did AT WILL against the Falcons. Green Bay has also found a spark in their running game with Starks which makes Aaron Rodgers even more dangerous. The Packers have an enormous edge at QB and in my eyes can neutralize the Bears in terms of defense with their aggressive linebackers and corners. Though the Bears have a slight edge in the running game, Forte is by no means a dominant RB. The Bears defense is also susceptible to giving up big plays as evident by the late points they allowed Seattle. After shutting down Seattle for the majority of the game, the Bears had a letdown on defense and its something they can ill-afford against the Packers. Last but not least, in my entire betting career, I have never seen a 6th seed favored on the road in a championship game. Vegas does not give away Christmas presents, and there is a reason the Packers are favored. I see the Packers winning this game going away!
Neither team has an edge in coaching, as all coaches are capable enough to get their teams at this stage.
My picks for the championship round will be as follows:
Steelers ML - to win 2.2 units
Steelers -3 - to win 1 unit
Packers ML - to win 2.25 units
Packers -3 - to win 1 unit
Steelers and Packers ML parlay - to win 2 units
Packers game over and Steelers game under - 7 point teaser to win 3 units
I anticipate the AFC championship game to be a defensive war which I believe will play into the Steelers hands. I do not see Chicago being able to slow down Green Bay's offense.
GL everyone
I rarely post on the forum these days but I often read posts of some of the respected cappers on here, and have won a good amount of money using their information and combining them with my own strategy. I only post when I feel the information can help benefit others in making their wagers. That said, I LOVE the Steelers and Packers to move on to the super bowl, for the following reasons:
I went 4-0 in the divisional round with my picks on the Steelers ML, Bears ATS, Packers ML, and Jets ATS. The logic for my wagers was based on the analysis posted by other cappers, my own research, and the defensive hog index criteria. Those that follow this in their betting, you'll find that it has a high success rate, along with several key variables. The DHI for the 2010 NFL season was as follows:
https://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_1135_Def._Hog_Index.html
As you can see, the Steelers, Packers, Bears, and Jets all had a significant edge in DHI over their opposition and all covered. The DHI itself is not enough to guarantee a cover, but combined with other relevant factors, you can spot situations where a team can have a huge edge versus the opposition. In the division round, the following applied:
1) Steelers had a DHI edge over the Ravens in all 3 categories, and were playing at home. The Steelers edge over the Ravens in the running and passing game however was minimal, hence the Steelers did not have a major edge. I bet the ML because the Steelers were at home and Ravens were coming off a big game against a soft KC team and now went on the road to play a rugged defense. Neither team had a motivational edge.
2) The Packers had a DHI edge in two of the three categories against the Falcons. It didn't end there. The Packers had a HUGE edge in the QB position as Rodgers is one of the best pure passers in the game and Matt Ryan was very inexperienced in terms of playoffs. The Packers defense also had a major edge over the Falcons with everyone healthy. The only edge Atlanta had was the running game. The scoreboard pretty much tells the tale.
3) The Bears had an edge in all 3 DHI categories against the Seahawks, were playing at home, and had a motivational edge to avenge an earlier loss. The Seahawks were coming off an emotional high after beating the defending super bowl champs. Combine all these variables and it had a big Bears win written all over it.
4) The Jets had a major edge in 2 DHI categories and virtually the same in the other category. The Jets also had a motivational edge to avenge the humiliating 45-3 December loss. The Patriots had the pressure of being the #1 seed, had not lost at home all year, and had the burden of lofty expectations. Though the Pats had a huge edge in QB, the Jets had a major edge in the running game and the defensive line and corner backs to neutralize Brady. Combining all these variables would make it an easy decision to take the Jets to hang within 9.5 points.
That said, I like the Packers and Steelers to advance to the super bowl for the following reasons:
AFC Championship: The Steelers are coming off a very hard fought comeback win against their arch rival, and as poorly as they played, they willed themselves to win the 2nd half and the game. The Steelers have an edge in all 3 DHI categories, are playing at home, have an edge at the QB position in terms of playoff experience, and have a big motivational edge to avenge a December home loss to the Jets. The Steelers can also neutralize the Jets defense and running game with their own. The Jets will come off an emotional high after beating the Patriots, the Jets will see a noticeable difference in how difficult it'll be to run the ball on the Steelers (nobody has successfully ran the ball on Pittsburgh all year). This will essentially force Mark Sanchez to air it out to win this game. All signs point to a BIG win by the Steelers.
NFC Championship: Though the Bears have a DHI edge in two of the 3 categories, the Packers are not that far behind. The Packers have dealt with injuries and adversity all season and have finally gotten healthy and playing up to their potential. Their confidence is also sky high knowing that their offense is very explosive and can move the ball, which they did AT WILL against the Falcons. Green Bay has also found a spark in their running game with Starks which makes Aaron Rodgers even more dangerous. The Packers have an enormous edge at QB and in my eyes can neutralize the Bears in terms of defense with their aggressive linebackers and corners. Though the Bears have a slight edge in the running game, Forte is by no means a dominant RB. The Bears defense is also susceptible to giving up big plays as evident by the late points they allowed Seattle. After shutting down Seattle for the majority of the game, the Bears had a letdown on defense and its something they can ill-afford against the Packers. Last but not least, in my entire betting career, I have never seen a 6th seed favored on the road in a championship game. Vegas does not give away Christmas presents, and there is a reason the Packers are favored. I see the Packers winning this game going away!
Neither team has an edge in coaching, as all coaches are capable enough to get their teams at this stage.
My picks for the championship round will be as follows:
Steelers ML - to win 2.2 units
Steelers -3 - to win 1 unit
Packers ML - to win 2.25 units
Packers -3 - to win 1 unit
Steelers and Packers ML parlay - to win 2 units
Packers game over and Steelers game under - 7 point teaser to win 3 units
I anticipate the AFC championship game to be a defensive war which I believe will play into the Steelers hands. I do not see Chicago being able to slow down Green Bay's offense.
GL everyone
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