SUICIDE POOL HELP!!!!!!!!!!!

97 started this week

@undermysac

 Wasn’t pretty, but we did it

Down to 57 players left!!!

Next week I have Cleveland Over Houston on the road locked in as one pick. Regardless not changing that pick.

pick 1: Cleveland <——-Locked in

pick 2: DET / LAC / (ATL or PIT) <—-Help!!!

I have 3 Games to choose from for that second pick.

Now from what I’m seeing from DET I like them to win at Home vs Jax. Jax had a great win at home vs the Ravens, but Detroit still looks like my second pick as Jax will come back down to earth after that HUGE win.

We also have LAC away at Vegas. LAC would be my pick, but Vegas can always turn it on as they just beat Sea in OT. Also I don’t trust going into Raider Nation and getting a win there.

Then there’s ATL at Home facing PIT. If you asked me two weeks ago I would say ATL is winning this match up, but now what I see PIT brewing the last two weeks with Pickett I have no clue.

So what do we think? TAKE DET Or LAC?! ATL?!

Originally I had for this week Cleveland and Atlanta a few weeks ago.

My feeling it’s Cleveland and Detroit this week.

Thoughts?!?!

I guess let’s see how Pit plays tn on the road to see if I want to ride with ATL this week as my second pick or not.

I actually already bet the Lions and Chargers on the lookahead lines...........

gun to my head....I would take the chargers......and I am a lifelong raider fan. 

I feel like the chargers are gonna turn it on and make a playoff run here.....

I mean who knows.....both could win both could lose.............the Lions have some winnable games down the stretch, and I am sure Campbell is getting them ready for it......they have a legit shot at a winning record if you look at their games lol

You are not in a bad spot man.....the teams you have to pick from have motivation....

@JDD

 Yes I hear ya. So, you think Chargers on the Road has a better chance than Detroit at Home to beat Jax huh? Yea, it's tough like you said both could win or lose.  I just hope I pick the right side if one happens to lose haha. I'll see how the lines change throughout the week and see what Vegas knows haha.

@JDD

 So Now the thing is LAR is playing no one it looks like including Donald on the other side. The spread just jumped to -8.  Do I now pick SEA as my second pick with Clev? 

The thing is I had Sea beating Carolina @ home next week.  The whole pool has both of these picks left. My thought is this is a dead week if everyone basically chooses SEA & CLEV. If I hold my breath and pick DET this week I'd still have SEA next week. 

IF I choose SEA this WEEK over DET Pick I have to choose next week between ( ARIZONA OR NE GAME)-Playing each other, which is a tough game to choose from.

What do you think????!

Pittsburgh and the Jags both win their respective games. 

@Charo757

 You think Pit takes out ATL like they did Indy? On the road again idk a lot went right for them last night as well. So, you think Det fall to the jags at home huh. Idk tough call.

Id go Detroit or Seattle this week.

Letdown spot for Cleveland @Tex

Take LAC, not pretty but your best option in my opinion. GL

@GeoDawg

 You think I don't know man.....Houston in Shambles...Also Watson has been waiting for this moment. Perfect story line for him. Also Chubb might run over 150 yards haha

@Zombobo

 I did not know you had Seattle left.  

Donald out. Kupp out. Robinson out.  Stafford... maybe, but can you really see them rushing him back? 2 OL are also hurting.

Seattle also coming off a loss in OT to Raiders.....and the Rams are done.  Seattle needs this game. 

I do think the Chargers beat the Raiders and Detroit beats Jags, but from a percentage standpoint, thinking in terms of "if they played this game 100 times", I would think the Hawks and Browns win a larger % of the time over these Rams and Texans teams than the Lions and Chargers would over the Jags and Raiders.  

Unfortunately, this is partly the best shot you can take from a strategic standpoint in a survivor pool.  Playing the "what is more likely" game in your head.

I would stick with Cleveland and then go Seattle.  I know they are both away games, but they are also both divisional games and the dogs are dead dogs, not fighting dogs.  Seattle fighting for playoffs, Cleveland and Watson trying to make people forget his poor decisions......perfect tune up game for them this week before meeting Cincy next week, who will be coming off a no doubt tough revenge matchup with KC this week.....I mean the Browns already beat the Bengals, they could potentially be 6-7 after next week and fighting for a playoff spot.  

Again, you are in a really good spot on paper......you have some seriously big faves to pick, going up against some teams that are really bad right now. 

@Zombobo

 I also for some reason havent gotten notifications in months, sorry for late reply

Ok now I see what you are saying with Detroit....yeah that's tough.  

Can you go through and take the time to see who has what teams available?  For this much money if I were you I would get a spreadsheet going or something.  At lease some sticky notes lol.

@JDD

O I have haha. Now since the colts lost last night down to 55 from 57.

The Problem is I think this week is a scrap since Everyone has Cleveland left, so that's one pick.

Also everyone has SEATTLE left. So, Basically this week no one gets knocks out.....maybe 10% goes outside the box where 7 still have Dallas to beat the colts. 1 has Buffalo.

But no one has KC/SF/MIA/BAL left.

Do I play it Risky And still go with CLEV & DET to save Seattle to beat Carolina at home next week, which I had.

If I pick SEA rather than Det I have to next week pick a 50/50 game between NE and ARI......WHO WINS THAT?!.....So what I'm saying next week If I just got with probably the rest of the pool with SEA my next week is more of a toss up rather than going with SEA over Carolina.  What do you think? In that situation..

I'm just trying to see the best available teams left for me to pick the next 3 weeks Hypothetically.

This week 13: Cleveland Over Houston | Detroit Over Jax (scary, now underdog, but that's over hype of beating BALT)

       Week 14: SEA Over Carolina | TEN Over Jax    (BOTH HOME GAMES)

       Week 15: LAC Over TEN  | JET'S Over Detroit  (BOTH HOME GAMES)  Or could pick a PIT over Carolina 

IF I don't Go with Detroit this week it looks like this......

This week 13: Cleveland Over Houston | SEA Over LAR

       Week 14: TEN Over JAX | Have to Pick between NE & ARI @ ARIZONA ( For some reason I like ARI winning here) still don't know who I would choose though?!?!

       Week 15: LAC Over TEN  | JET'S Over Detroit  (BOTH HOME GAMES)  Or could pick a PIT over Carolina 

@Zombobo

 I have read articles in the past about strategy in survivor pools, and they basically layout this exact scenario many times over.   

You really gotta use Cleveland this week, because then it is Bengals/Ravens.  The more I think of it, the more I see nothing wrong with taking Detroit, either way you are left with one play right assuming cleveland wins.  

This Detroit and this Jags team could play 1000 times a year for eternity.....and I would bet neither team wins more than 60% of the games every year.  They score 25/22 respectively, and give up like 370 and 410 defensively.  Strong offenses, terrible Ds.  This is the epitome of a coin flip.  I think you could do way worse than taking either team.  Personally I would take Detroit

There is no right or wrong answer here potentially.  You are gonna need a little bit of luck to get outta this either way.  IDK man.....follow your gut, stick to it.....and don't flip flop.....go down with the ship!

Yes I do. If I had to choose between the two, it would be Pittsburgh. 

@JDD

 At the end of the day I’ll have to go with my gut, but who do you think wins next week between Arizona and Patriots?

@Zombobo

 Assuming no injuries......I would lean Cards based purely on the Patriots inability to corral a team with a good running QB.  Look at what teams like the Bears with Fields, and the Ravens with Lamar did to them.  I would not be surprised if we see more of the same with Josh Allen this week.  The Pats have slower LBs, and not to get into a whole thing about it, but they are not suited to handle a team with a running QB as well as they are suited to handle a classic pocket passer.  

Of course, anything can happen, but as of now, I lean Cards in that game, strong lean.

At the end of the day, the Patriots only wins against teams with a winning record, are the Jets twice, with absurd QB play both times.  They beat the Lions when the Lions were promoting practice squad players just to field a team.  They beat the Steelers, barely, without TJ Watt and with Mitch Trubisky. and they beat the Browns when the Browns committed 4 turnovers in that weird Bailey Zappe game.  The Pats are a crap shoot team, and I lean way more to pretender with them than contender.  

@JDD

 I agree with everything and might roll that way most likely.

This week CLEV and SEA - Best games to

get through might as well use them

Next week ZONA and TEN it is then

I Just need to see if Stafford plays or not.....still on the fence....If he plays SEA should still win that game, but I would feel less comfortable picking it.  I'd rather roll the roll the dice with DET to beat JAX at Home.  Also I want to see how the PATS play tomorrow vs the BILLS. See if any injuries would help the cause unfortunately. 

So do I roll the dice and go with Det & Clev this week instead of SEA & Clev….

Next week I would choose SEA & TEN rather than TEN & pick a winning team out of (NE v ARI) game next week.

If I stick with SEA today it comes down to that Pat game unfortunately where I have no choice to choose from

what to do?????!

I know you have to make it to next week and then figure it out, but that’s the predicament I put myself if I go this route.