According to Bet Labs Sports, taking a team
that is losing at the half to cover in the second half has not been a
profitable trend. However, despite a small sample size, you can see that
this hasn’t applied to the Super Bowl. This could be attributed to the
long halftime show, but could also just be due to the fact that the team
that is losing in the Super Bowl is still an elite team.
If you narrow down the regular season sample size and only look at teams
with winning percentages of 60 or greater, this trend doesn’t hold
true. These strong teams have gone 382-452 ATS in the 2nd half, which is
even worse than the original regular season sample. If you look at 60+%
winning teams against other 60+% winning teams, that record gets worse
again: 160-220 or a -18.2% ROI. AKA not good. It seems like the long
break may have something to do with this trend.
If we look at teams favored in the 2nd half, we see some interesting
results. In the regular season, you’re better off taking the dog in the
2nd half. Once we reach the playoffs, the favorite in the 2nd half has
actually reigned supreme, but this hasn’t applied to the Super Bowl. The
2nd half dog has gone 7-4 in the Super Bowls in our database.
Once again, this is a small sample size, but still an interesting trend
that could definitely be attributed to the long halftime show. Teams
that are down at halftime have more time to figure out what went wrong
in the first half and adjust accordingly. On the other hand, it’s not as
if the winning team is packing it in for the 2nd half of the Super
Bowl, but they may not make as many halftime changes and as a result,
could get stagnant when play resumes.
If you are looking to go against the public in the 2nd half, it appears
that the Super Bowl is the best time to do so. In both the regular
season and playoffs leading up to the Super Bowl, teams getting more
than 50% of 2nd half bets have actually had the edge.
If you combine the past two trends (underdogs getting less than 50%) the
record improves to 6-3 ATS. If you add the first trend (teams losing at
the half) to the past two, the record improves to 4-1 ATS in the Super
Bowl.
Msudogs
0
According to Bet Labs Sports, taking a team
that is losing at the half to cover in the second half has not been a
profitable trend. However, despite a small sample size, you can see that
this hasn’t applied to the Super Bowl. This could be attributed to the
long halftime show, but could also just be due to the fact that the team
that is losing in the Super Bowl is still an elite team.
If you narrow down the regular season sample size and only look at teams
with winning percentages of 60 or greater, this trend doesn’t hold
true. These strong teams have gone 382-452 ATS in the 2nd half, which is
even worse than the original regular season sample. If you look at 60+%
winning teams against other 60+% winning teams, that record gets worse
again: 160-220 or a -18.2% ROI. AKA not good. It seems like the long
break may have something to do with this trend.
If we look at teams favored in the 2nd half, we see some interesting
results. In the regular season, you’re better off taking the dog in the
2nd half. Once we reach the playoffs, the favorite in the 2nd half has
actually reigned supreme, but this hasn’t applied to the Super Bowl. The
2nd half dog has gone 7-4 in the Super Bowls in our database.
Once again, this is a small sample size, but still an interesting trend
that could definitely be attributed to the long halftime show. Teams
that are down at halftime have more time to figure out what went wrong
in the first half and adjust accordingly. On the other hand, it’s not as
if the winning team is packing it in for the 2nd half of the Super
Bowl, but they may not make as many halftime changes and as a result,
could get stagnant when play resumes.
If you are looking to go against the public in the 2nd half, it appears
that the Super Bowl is the best time to do so. In both the regular
season and playoffs leading up to the Super Bowl, teams getting more
than 50% of 2nd half bets have actually had the edge.
If you combine the past two trends (underdogs getting less than 50%) the
record improves to 6-3 ATS. If you add the first trend (teams losing at
the half) to the past two, the record improves to 4-1 ATS in the Super
Bowl.
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