Miami The Dolphins haven’t done a whole lot well lately, but they are on a 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS surge in same-season rematch games. One interesting trend fnds that when Miami goes over the total in an initial contest, Over the total is on a 7-1-1 run in the second game as well. Those trends collide Sunday when Miami hosts Buffalo. Similarly, the Fins have gone Over in six straight rematch games when they scored 24 points or more in the initial contest.
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Miami The Dolphins haven’t done a whole lot well lately, but they are on a 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS surge in same-season rematch games. One interesting trend fnds that when Miami goes over the total in an initial contest, Over the total is on a 7-1-1 run in the second game as well. Those trends collide Sunday when Miami hosts Buffalo. Similarly, the Fins have gone Over in six straight rematch games when they scored 24 points or more in the initial contest.
New Orleans The Saints are riding a seven-game ATS winning streak in revenge-type rematch games and will have the Thanksgiving night contest versus the Falcons circled on the calendar. Similarly, they are on an impressive 11-2 ATS run in their L13 same-season rematch games in which they were held to fewer than 27 points. Conversely, when New Orleans has won the opening game against a team by four or more points, it is just 5-11 ATS in the rematch since 2011. The frst chance to test that trend comes Sunday in Tampa.
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New Orleans The Saints are riding a seven-game ATS winning streak in revenge-type rematch games and will have the Thanksgiving night contest versus the Falcons circled on the calendar. Similarly, they are on an impressive 11-2 ATS run in their L13 same-season rematch games in which they were held to fewer than 27 points. Conversely, when New Orleans has won the opening game against a team by four or more points, it is just 5-11 ATS in the rematch since 2011. The frst chance to test that trend comes Sunday in Tampa.
The Buccaneers have won just four of their L18 same- season rematch games, going 8-10 ATS in the process.
They have been particularly bad on the road, losing their L6 by an average of 14.3 PPG. The worst matchup has been against the Saints, whom the Bucs face Sunday, as they are just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in the L8.
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Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers have won just four of their L18 same- season rematch games, going 8-10 ATS in the process.
They have been particularly bad on the road, losing their L6 by an average of 14.3 PPG. The worst matchup has been against the Saints, whom the Bucs face Sunday, as they are just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in the L8.
Arizona The Cardinals have surprisingly been one of the best teams in the league in same-season rematches on the road, having gone 10-1 ATS in their L11.
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Arizona The Cardinals have surprisingly been one of the best teams in the league in same-season rematches on the road, having gone 10-1 ATS in their L11.
Coincidentally, all three of the pre-scheduled rematch games this season will be on the road, starting with Sunday’s contest in San Francisco. Also, Arizona is 14-3 Over the total when it failed to score 21 points in the previous matchup and 10-0 Under when it eclipsed the 21-point mark.
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Coincidentally, all three of the pre-scheduled rematch games this season will be on the road, starting with Sunday’s contest in San Francisco. Also, Arizona is 14-3 Over the total when it failed to score 21 points in the previous matchup and 10-0 Under when it eclipsed the 21-point mark.
Oakland is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite against 0-3 or worse winless opponents. They are also 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their fi fth home game of the season against non-division foes. On the other side of the coin, the winless Bengals are 9-1 ATS as dogs in their fourth road game of the year.
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Oakland is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite against 0-3 or worse winless opponents. They are also 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their fi fth home game of the season against non-division foes. On the other side of the coin, the winless Bengals are 9-1 ATS as dogs in their fourth road game of the year.
The Ravens are 0-14 ATS (-6.96 ppg) since 2005 coming off a win where they completed at least 74% of their passes last game. TOP NFL PLAYER TREND: -- The Eagles are 0-8 ATS (-5.94 ppg) since Nov 20, 2016 coming off a win where Carson Wentz threw at least 35 passes. NFL O/U UNDER TREND: -- The Lions are 11-0 OU (11.59 ppg) since Nov 27, 2008 off a game as a dog where they allowed no more than 15 first downs.
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The Ravens are 0-14 ATS (-6.96 ppg) since 2005 coming off a win where they completed at least 74% of their passes last game. TOP NFL PLAYER TREND: -- The Eagles are 0-8 ATS (-5.94 ppg) since Nov 20, 2016 coming off a win where Carson Wentz threw at least 35 passes. NFL O/U UNDER TREND: -- The Lions are 11-0 OU (11.59 ppg) since Nov 27, 2008 off a game as a dog where they allowed no more than 15 first downs.
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 11 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.
Atlanta at Carolina: 54 to 49 ½ Dallas at Detroit: 51 to 47 ½ Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (MNF): 49 to 52 Houston at Baltimore: 49 to 51 ½ Chicago at L.A. Rams (SNF): 42 to 40 Denver at Minnnesota: 38 ½ to 40 ½
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 11 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
Chicago at L.A. Rams: Under 94% Houston at Baltimore: Over 91% Atlanta at Carolina: Under 83% Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Under 81% Denver at Minnesota: Over 79% Arizona at San Francisco: Under 76% Cincinnati at Oakland: Under 75%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (73 percent) in the New England at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in N.Y. Jets at Washington (72 percent) contest.
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Line Moves and Public Leans
Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 11 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.
Atlanta at Carolina: 54 to 49 ½ Dallas at Detroit: 51 to 47 ½ Kansas City vs. L.A. Chargers (MNF): 49 to 52 Houston at Baltimore: 49 to 51 ½ Chicago at L.A. Rams (SNF): 42 to 40 Denver at Minnnesota: 38 ½ to 40 ½
Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 11 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.
Chicago at L.A. Rams: Under 94% Houston at Baltimore: Over 91% Atlanta at Carolina: Under 83% Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Under 81% Denver at Minnesota: Over 79% Arizona at San Francisco: Under 76% Cincinnati at Oakland: Under 75%
There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (73 percent) in the New England at Philadelphia matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in N.Y. Jets at Washington (72 percent) contest.
San Francisco’s defense allowed 77 points in its first seven games, but
the 49ers have given up 52 points in the past two weeks. The Niners
yielded 25 points against the Cardinals two weeks ago in a 28-25 victory
in Arizona, but the final touchdown occurred on an 88-yard strike by
Kyler Murray with five minutes remaining. Arizona’s offense hasn’t fared
well on the road against teams with winning records by scoring 17 at
Baltimore and 9 at New Orleans, while San Francisco.
BIGGEST LINE MOVE
We’ll stick with that San Francisco/Arizona matchup as the 49ers opened
as 13 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook last Monday. The
Niners have slipped to a 10-point favorite, which also coincides coming
off their first loss of the season to Seattle in overtime. The Cardinals
have been a solid team to back recently by covering in five of the last
six games, while posting a 4-1 ATS mark away from Glendale this season.
San Francisco has not covered in two opportunities as a double-digit
favorite this season, which includes that three-point win at Arizona as
10 ½-point chalk in Week 9.
TRAP OF THE WEEK
The Bengals are the only team in the NFL not to win a game this season
as they take their 0-9 record to the Black Hole in Oakland. Cincinnati
is off a 49-13 home blowout loss to Baltimore last week, while Oakland
is fresh off a pair of close home wins over Detroit and Los Angeles.
Now, the Raiders are laying points for only the second time this season,
as four of their past five covers have come in the underdog role. The
Bengals’ offense has struggled in 2019, but Cincinnati has cashed in
road games as ‘dogs of nine points or more at Seattle and Baltimore.
BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
Teams returning from the bye after a London game own an 0-6 SU/ATS
record this season. The two teams that are in this situation in Week 11
are the Texans and Jaguars. Both are road underdogs as Houston heads to
Baltimore, while Jacksonville travels to Indianapolis. Four of the six
losing teams fell by double-digits, but Houston has not lost a game by
more than a touchdown in 2019.
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UNDER 44 – Cardinals at 49ers
San Francisco’s defense allowed 77 points in its first seven games, but
the 49ers have given up 52 points in the past two weeks. The Niners
yielded 25 points against the Cardinals two weeks ago in a 28-25 victory
in Arizona, but the final touchdown occurred on an 88-yard strike by
Kyler Murray with five minutes remaining. Arizona’s offense hasn’t fared
well on the road against teams with winning records by scoring 17 at
Baltimore and 9 at New Orleans, while San Francisco.
BIGGEST LINE MOVE
We’ll stick with that San Francisco/Arizona matchup as the 49ers opened
as 13 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook last Monday. The
Niners have slipped to a 10-point favorite, which also coincides coming
off their first loss of the season to Seattle in overtime. The Cardinals
have been a solid team to back recently by covering in five of the last
six games, while posting a 4-1 ATS mark away from Glendale this season.
San Francisco has not covered in two opportunities as a double-digit
favorite this season, which includes that three-point win at Arizona as
10 ½-point chalk in Week 9.
TRAP OF THE WEEK
The Bengals are the only team in the NFL not to win a game this season
as they take their 0-9 record to the Black Hole in Oakland. Cincinnati
is off a 49-13 home blowout loss to Baltimore last week, while Oakland
is fresh off a pair of close home wins over Detroit and Los Angeles.
Now, the Raiders are laying points for only the second time this season,
as four of their past five covers have come in the underdog role. The
Bengals’ offense has struggled in 2019, but Cincinnati has cashed in
road games as ‘dogs of nine points or more at Seattle and Baltimore.
BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
Teams returning from the bye after a London game own an 0-6 SU/ATS
record this season. The two teams that are in this situation in Week 11
are the Texans and Jaguars. Both are road underdogs as Houston heads to
Baltimore, while Jacksonville travels to Indianapolis. Four of the six
losing teams fell by double-digits, but Houston has not lost a game by
more than a touchdown in 2019.
8-0 O/U last five weeks: All NFL teams who scored 34 or more points in their last
game, when the pointspread is < 12 points. This week, we could see some high- scoring results for the following teams: BALTIMORE RAVENS and NEW YORK
JETS. 0-8-1 O/U last five weeks: All NFL teams who scored 13 or LESS points at HOME in their last game, when the OU line is > 40 and < 54 points. This week, we’re looking to the following teams for potential UNDERS: Indy Colts... New Orleans Saints... Cincy Bengals.
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8-0 O/U last five weeks: All NFL teams who scored 34 or more points in their last
game, when the pointspread is < 12 points. This week, we could see some high- scoring results for the following teams: BALTIMORE RAVENS and NEW YORK
JETS. 0-8-1 O/U last five weeks: All NFL teams who scored 13 or LESS points at HOME in their last game, when the OU line is > 40 and < 54 points. This week, we’re looking to the following teams for potential UNDERS: Indy Colts... New Orleans Saints... Cincy Bengals.
9-1-1 O/U since 2011 (90% Overs): All GAME 13 or less NFC favorites versus an AFC opponent, with a LOW OU line of 40 or less points. Apparently, these games
tend to be a lot higher-scoring than oddsmakers and bettors realize.That high- scoring pattern applies to these games this week: BRONCOS @ VIKINGS (Min
-10.5 / OU 39.5)... and JETS @ REDSKINS (Wash -1 / OU 38.5). 3-10 O/U last 2 years: All GAME 12 or less same-DIVISION games in which the OU line is a LOW 40 or less points. That adds a little more fuel to Monkey’s UNDER this week... with two games that figure to be lower-scoring: Steelers @ Browns (Thur)... and Bills @ Dolphins (Sun).
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9-1-1 O/U since 2011 (90% Overs): All GAME 13 or less NFC favorites versus an AFC opponent, with a LOW OU line of 40 or less points. Apparently, these games
tend to be a lot higher-scoring than oddsmakers and bettors realize.That high- scoring pattern applies to these games this week: BRONCOS @ VIKINGS (Min
-10.5 / OU 39.5)... and JETS @ REDSKINS (Wash -1 / OU 38.5). 3-10 O/U last 2 years: All GAME 12 or less same-DIVISION games in which the OU line is a LOW 40 or less points. That adds a little more fuel to Monkey’s UNDER this week... with two games that figure to be lower-scoring: Steelers @ Browns (Thur)... and Bills @ Dolphins (Sun).
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