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Posted: #251
That PIT/CIN loss was brutal. The game was poised to go over 50. It happens. Let's bounce back tomorrow on Monday night. 
 
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Posted: #252
Quote Originally Posted by BetVirus:



8 of last 10 stayed under 45 h2h.
Solid under play for me. They like play in defence with each other and scored not more than 48 points in last 10 their games.
Same situation as first your total.

Both teams are very confident in their defence.
No way this game goes Over



[Quote: Originally Posted by si1ly] I'm sure with the amount of money that the Bills spent that they're 'confident in their defense'.  Some good confidence does you if you suck.



Who suck now fucking asshole? Get on your knees and do the work



Who suck now fucking asshole? Get on your knees and do the work
 
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Posted: #253

Quote Originally Posted by BetVirus:




Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

I'm sure with the amount of money that the Bills spent that they're 'confident in their defense'.  Some good confidence does you if you suck.


Who suck now fucking asshole? Get on your knees and do the work

 

wow your an asshole for posting that, you think your hot shit for getting one game right over si1ly.  why even post in here if you think he sucks and just wanna prove one of the best cappers wrong.

 
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Posted: #254
No worries si1ly!  Bears are gonna blow out det tomorrow, im pounding on them as well, i already have a few parlays hooked up to them.  had a good day today and now just waiting to bring in your Bears play tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #255
Quote Originally Posted by BetVirus:




[Quote: Originally Posted by si1ly] I'm sure with the amount of money that the Bills spent that they're 'confident in their defense'.  Some good confidence does you if you suck.


Who suck now fucking asshole? Get on your knees and do the work

You're so LOW, its not even funny. ..
 
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Posted: #256

Quote Originally Posted by BetVirus:




Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

I'm sure with the amount of money that the Bills spent that they're 'confident in their defense'.  Some good confidence does you if you suck.


Who suck now fucking asshole? Get on your knees and do the work

 

I seldom post here, but after reading this drivel I had to comment.  If you had ever bothered to read this guy's threads, you would realize what an asset he is to this site.  If you're going to be that disrespectful, please shut up.

 
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Posted: #257
Why is it the keyboard warriors never post their plays.


 
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Posted: #258
All aboard the Chi-Town express for MNF!  Bears are hot, Lions are not.  Bears 27-16   


 
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Posted: #259
One of those weekends. On fire. Cool being in the zone, it happens so rarely
 
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Posted: #260
Tough couple losses today turned what could have been a great day into a 1-2 day.  On the upside, the Patriots beat the Jets and my fantasy team won.  Hardly a consolation for losing 345 dollars the way I did, but it'll help me rest easier I hope.

Last week a similar Sunday left a 2-2 week hanging profits or losses on a Monday night side.  It will be the same story this week.  And like last week, the Monday night game has one of the highest line values of the week.  I feel just fine leaving it up to my #2 power ranked team at home off a bye week to decide my fate.

Thanks for the support guys.  It takes about 2 days to catch up with this weeks data and publish next weeks sheets.  I'll have the Week 8 Breakdown Sheets up sometime on Tuesday.
 
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Posted: #261
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Tough couple losses today turned what could have been a great day into a 1-2 day.  On the upside, the Patriots beat the Jets and my fantasy team won.  Hardly a consolation for losing 345 dollars the way I did, but it'll help me rest easier I hope.

Last week a similar Sunday left a 2-2 week hanging profits or losses on a Monday night side.  It will be the same story this week.  And like last week, the Monday night game has one of the highest line values of the week.  I feel just fine leaving it up to my #2 power ranked team at home off a bye week to decide my fate.

Thanks for the support guys.  It takes about 2 days to catch up with this weeks data and publish next weeks sheets.  I'll have the Week 8 Breakdown Sheets up sometime on Tuesday.

Thanks for all the breakdown sheets, Silly. They've been of great help. 
 
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Posted: #262
any early lines u seeing for this coming week that a guy might want to jump on early?
 
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Posted: #263
Just wanted to say you are excellent at what you do and I'm sure the work, time and effort you provide the forum members is much appreciated.
 
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Posted: #264

Hey si1ly, cant wait to see your insight on next weeks games, i had a good week and had some money to burn lol.  So i went ahead and locked in a few games for next week already since some lines looked like value. 

atl+8.5, jets +3.5, den-1  in a teaser

min over 41.5, clev over 44.5, dal under 47.5 in a round robin

 
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Posted: #265
I am looking forward to seeing how much your power rankings have my Texans moving up this week after their dominating performance over the Ravens.  I realize the Ravens were shorthanded on defense, but was a little surprised at how well Houston shut down the Ravens offense.  Anyways, good luck tonight.  I am on the Bears as well.
 
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Posted: #266
I've been waiting for the line to move down but it seems stuck at 6.5.

Think it is still good value?
 
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Posted: #267
Quote Originally Posted by Rambler882:

I've been waiting for the line to move down but it seems stuck at 6.5.

Think it is still good value?

The difference between 6.5 ad 5.5 is negligible in this case.  6 is a half-assed key number.  Any spread between 4.5 and 6.5 all falls under the same category.  I doubt it goes to 7 though - so if you don't mind waiting you might catch 6 sometime between now and kickoff.  If it does go to 7, well all the more reasons to pound the Bears.  That kind of line movement can only be in response to heavy sharp action buying Chicago under a touchdown.
 
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Posted: #268
Quote Originally Posted by whalerchris:

any early lines u seeing for this coming week that a guy might want to jump on early?

I won't know until my databases are updated.  I'll post leans and early lock ins sometime tomorrow after I finish maintaining the databases, performing the RPI calculations and publishing the sheets.
 
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Posted: #269
I think there are some nice dog spots next week... Can't wait to see the sheets
 
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Posted: #270
Also, Bears fan here and in Chicago.  It is going to be heavy T-storms all day and 50% chance during the game.

Just a FYI.
 
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Posted: #271
Appreciate all of your efforts si1ly. I'm still bitter over that second half in cinncy...on pace to hit 50 and they score ten points...just crazy. How about the dropped passes in this game though? That's what really blew my mind; sometimes I wonder if the fix is in. Thanks again and keep at'r. I foresee you having some very profitable upcoming weeks. 
 
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Posted: #272
[Quote: Originally Posted by BetVirus]


[Quote: Originally Posted by si1ly] I'm sure with the amount of money that the Bills spent that they're 'confident in their defense'.  Some good confidence does you if you suck.


Who suck now fucking asshole? Get on your knees and do the work


And you earned the famous saying I save for the VERY best....

"I hope you die in a grassfire" 


No one forced you to play  and the purpose of this site is to help others with your input not to ridicule .  So if you have nothing productive to say then say nothing at all. 




 
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Posted: #273
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Yeah, Kap's answer is right on.  The fact is, footballs are a funky shape.  They tend to do unpredictable things when they're thrown and bounced on the ground.  Noway to really predict a turnover battle.  Best you can do is check sack and interception rates to see if a team is prone to a disadvantage.  Whether it actually plays out in the real world is impossible to reasonably predict.  It pretty much boils down to dumb luck in the long run.


That funky shape is a prolate spheroid.......One of John Grudens little info tidbits from MNF, just in case anyone was interested.


 
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Posted: #274
What was your model's prediction for the score tonight si1ly?

Was wondering what your thoughts were on the weather for tonight's game and how it might affect the scoring. Cheers mate.
 
 
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Posted: #275
Quote Originally Posted by ReadBtWtheLines:

What was your model's prediction for the score tonight si1ly?

Was wondering what your thoughts were on the weather for tonight's game and how it might affect the scoring. Cheers mate.

Projected total:  48



Hard to say what the weather will do to the game.  Lions have no running game so I think they'll be throwing it regardless of the weather conditions.  Usually means a slow moving clock.  I've had shit luck with totals this season and I have a hard time readings tonight's total.
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