*****Super Bowl 51, NE vs Atlanta w/ write-up*****

Super Bowl 51
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons
NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
6:30 PM ET, Feb 5th, 2017
(New England -3, 59)

The biggest storyline that all the major networks such as Fox Sports, ESPN, CBS, etc have been throwing out there and talking about is that when the Patriots when this Super Bowl, oh how big their Dynasty team will be and go down in history! And how Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are set to become the greatest HC/QB duo in Super Bowl history! How funny and ironic it's going to be to watch Goodell have to hand the Lombardi trophy over to a couple of people he dislikes. I've always been a firm believer in the old adage that "defense wins championships" and here we have a game in which we'll see the #1 offense of the Atlanta Falcons face off against the #1 defense of the New England Patriots. Screams a Patriots win right? Lets break it down a little and understand why these two teams are here and why they rank where they do in different categories.

I'm not going to get into a whole lot of numbers and stats for this game as every single one of you can find those for this one game by yourself. They're everywhere. But we'll talk about them some along with a little theory. To me, this seems to be one of the weakest Patriots teams in recent memory to make it to the big game. I feel like they are somewhat overrated without any real weapons. But the "public" doesn't seem to think so as they are really pounding New England and the Over for the game. No surprises there though as they see all these major networks loving them and figure Vegas has set the numbers to favor the "correct" team. I mean it is "The Goat", Tom Brady and "The Mad Genius", Bill Belichick. What could go wrong only having to cover just 3 little old points? Seems simple enough right? I mean the last five Super Bowls where the #1 defense went up against the #1 offense, the defensive team has won! I'm here to tell you don't let those numbers throw you off as they are somewhat skewed. Why do you think the line opened up at New England -3 and has stayed there even with Joe Public pounding the Patriots? I mean the Over/Under number opened up at 56 and has been bet all the way up to 59. So why no line movement in the past couple of weeks since the line came out on the -3 number? It's because every "Square" bettor in the world is on NE but all the "Sharps" are pounding Atlanta. That's why! The line could've easily been NE -5 and nobody would've even batted an eye simply because "it's the Patriots in the Super Bowl once again". The Patriots always open up 6,7 or even double digit favorites and by the end of the week before game time, the line even moves another point or two. Look, the Patriots are 4-0 all time against Atlanta with 9 TDs against only 1 interception and they averaged beating them by 10 points. Right now, 62% of the total money being bet is coming in on the side of the Patriots. But still no line movement. Think about it!

The Patriots have the #1 defense in football for a reason this year. It's because they've faced the EASIEST schedule of QBs in ALL of the NFL! When you face terrible QBs all year long, you're supposed to dominate. Because of these facts, NE led the league in starting field position. Their   average starting field position was from the 35 or 36 yard line which makes it a whole heck of a lot easier to score TDs and points in general. Most teams they faced were 3 and out and punting to them. But guess what, how often do you see Atlanta's offense go 3 and out? Not very dang often. So when they do have to punt, NE will be pinned inside their own 20 and maybe 10 yard line. Now Brady and that New England offense will have to earn them points with long 80 plus yard drives and not 60 yard ones. Missing the Gronk this game is going to hurt them too. They don't have a real #1 receiver to go to. Edelman is a Slot receiver and the Gronk was Brady's go-to guy when they were in 3rd and short or 4th and short situations. And Hogan is not going to get 200 yards again here either. That was a break-out game he had against Pittsburgh. Yeah their RBs are alright. But Lewis and Blount are just "OK" at best. The Patriots played the easiest schedule of QB rating teams in football this season. It was around 80% on those QBRs. They played two good QBs in all. Russell Wilson at home where they lost, and you know how bad Seattle was on the road, and Big Ben. Roethlisberger was able to move the ball between the 20's but losing Le'veon Bell early really hurt them. The two games the Patriots played against the Texans and the Steelers, both teams were able to move the ball with ease. If anybody else was the QB for the Texans besides Brock Osweiler, they would've put up big numbers for a win against them. Brock turned the ball over in the red zone and threw multiple picks. Big Ben was the same. They got inside the 20 and settled for FGs and turned the ball over.

But here's where Atlanta is a different animal. They don't turn the ball over. In the red zone, they put up TDs and not FGs. They are very balanced with a great passing attack. They also have a phenomenal rushing attack with that 2 headed monster of Freeman and Coleman. Atlanta has rolled over their opponents in the post season so far beating up on two of the leagues hottest teams in their own rights, Seattle and Green Bay. They outscored them by a combined total of 80-41. In that span, Ryan has been a monster throwing for over 730 yards with 7 TDs and no INTs. And talking about defenses, Atlanta's is that "bend but don't break" type. No, they're not dominant either but they are young and fast and improve every single week. There are a lot of first and second year players on it. It just took time for them to adapt to the NFL and gel. After their bye week, Atlanta's defense averaged only giving up 20 points per game. Before the bye, they averaged giving up about 28 ppg. Now in the playoffs, they average giving up under 17 ppg. Yes they're young but they are very fast and it takes that quickness to get to Brady. A quick defense can get though the interior of that New England line and put hits on Brady which in turn will force a turnover or two. And just the hits alone will make Brady uncomfortable after a while which will make his mindset change. He hates getting hit! In games where he gets hit a lot, his QB rating drops significantly. Brady has struggled against ferocious pass rushes and rushers like Atlanta has with Vic Beasley. Atlanta's defense is very underrated because of those early season woes, but keep in mind that their Head Coach, Dan Quinn, is a defensive genius. Don't forget that he was the Defensive Coordinator of that "Legion of Boom" defense in Seattle when they were so tough. Just look what he's done in just his second year with all these rookies and second year players. Yes Belichick has the experience in the big game but guess what, Quinn has been in three of the last four Super Bowls and has faced Brady before so this won't be a first for him seeing "The Goat" in the big game.

Atlanta starts out fast and they're in a Dome. They're right at home. Their last 4 games have been in Dome stadiums so this is to their advantage. It's their comfort zone. They have scored a TD on 8 straight opening drive possessions. The last five Super Bowls the Patriots have been in, they've scored exactly zero points. ZERO! A couple of big mis-matches will be Atlanta's TE position with Hooper and the RB positions against New England's linebackers. The Patriots don't do well covering Tight Ends. They rank 31st, at the bottom of the NFL out of 32 teams at letting RBs catch passes out of the backfield which is where Atlanta's RBs shine. They're just as good doing that as they are getting the rock handed to them behind the line of scrimmage and making opposing defenses miss. Atlanta's two running backs alone put up 200 yards against Seattle's line backing crew. And then how are you going to cover Julio? Double team him like GB did where he still had almost 180 yards? He ran circles around Seattle's Richard Sherman who is supposedly one of the top cover guys in the league. Double team Julio if you want to and open things up for Hooper, Gabriel, Sanu, Hardy and Perkins. Even if they shut down Julio Jones it really doesn't matter as they scored 40 plus points in two games without him. Ryan has thrown touchdown passes to 13 different players this year which is a league record! There are just too many weapons and Matty Ice knows how to use every single one of them. In Atlanta's past two playoff games, Julio has become the first player in league history with 150 plus receiving yards and at least two TDs. Atlanta's Offensive line should be able to protect Matt Ryan as they are the only Offensive line unit that has started every single game together this year. The Patriots are not great at rushing the passer either ranking 18th in sacks per pass play. So let them go ahead and blitz which will single them up in the secondary and watch what Ryan does to them. Falcons all day! Yeah, I know there will be plenty of bashers, haters and non-believers towards me and this pick just like there was when I told you that Atlanta would dominate GB, but it's how I have the game handicapped. BOL!

Atlanta Falcons ML +135

Good Luck Guys, I'm going with Hotlanta.