Super Bowl 58 - The Definition of Insanity

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. Here we go again. The modelers and stats folks are betting against Mahomes and overweighting SF on paper. They are overweighting that SF is built to beat the crap out of bad teams. The league was down this year. I said it in my writeup fading Baltimore. SF beating the crap out of bad teams and the middle class in a down league makes them look incredible in the metrics. I don't buy it. Dominate wins against the Cowboys and Eagles look great on paper but were those teams actually any good?

Something I fundamentally believe in the modern age of betting is to dig beneath the surface stats and matchups. Everyone is using the same team level data and matchup metrics. Everyone is making the same models using the same stats. DVOA, EPA, CPOE, etc. I'll even use a few of them below. But the real edge IMO in the modern market comes from peeling back the onion and examining context. Not just what a model spits out. Here are a few contextual factors that I believe aren't being fully accounted for:

1. Mahomes

I don't think the models are fully factoring in Mahomes. But how can that be, andarmac99? There has truly never been a QB like this. He has consistently elevated his play in the biggest moments and situations. He's almost immune to pressure. He's now 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog. His EPA is consistently BETTER when he's an underdog. It's BETTER when he's trailing. It's BETTER when he is away from home. No player has ever elevated his play, and his teams' play in these situations better than him. The models using base level, and even weighted season stats on the KC offense with Mahomes are severely underweighting KC. You must account for his elevated play when it matters most.

2. The KC run defense

It's bad. We've all heard. We've all looked at the stats. We've all modeled. "SF and McCaffery are going to run all over this terrible run defense!" "BUT THE CHIEFS ARE 28TH IN RUN DEFENSE EPA!! Let's add some context: Nick Bolton. He's the Chiefs best LB by a mile. He plays almost every snap when healthy. He's darn good against the run. He has KC's top run stop% among regular defensive players. Last year PFF graded him as the best run defender on the whole team. Not only is he very good but him in the lineup also improves the spots around him by bumping everyone down a rung. But he missed half the season.

Let's look some basic rushing stats. This season including the playoffs (and minus Week 18) the Chiefs gave up 4.8 YPC in games Bolton missed. A terrible number. But when he played that number was 4.2. Much better. But further context reveals that the Chiefs play a lot of man coverage. That leaves them susceptible to QB runs and KC got killed there this year. But Brock Purdy really doesn't run. Sure, he's had a couple scrambles the last few weeks. But for the season he has just 39 rushes, and the vast majority of them have been kneel downs or sneaks. It's unlikely that QB runs are going to be meaningful for SF here. If you remove all QB runs from the games Bolton has played, then the KC run defense further improves to just 4.0 YPC allowed. The playoff game against the Bills where KC allegedly got run over? That was mostly all Josh Allen. James Cook had 3.4 YPC. If Brock Purdy decides to become Josh Allen on the ground in this game, then I'll tip my cap. Models and surface level metrics say the Chiefs run defense is terrible. Contextually with Bolton in there...not too shabby.

3. Talanoa Hufunga

SF's best Safety. He tore his ACL in Week 11 and the SF defense has fallen off a cliff. Since he went down (and throwing out Week 18) if you look at plays excluding turnovers and garbage time (<10% win prob) the Niners defense is 21st in EPA/play allowed. 19th in success rate. Their run defense has cratered ranking both 27th in EPA and  success rate allowed. They have been run over in both playoff games. So much of the focus has been allegedly how bad the KC run defense is, but I would make a strong argument that contextually, SF has the much worse run defense.

4. The KC secondary has been playing incredible

Specifically, their CBs Sneed, McDuffie, Watson, and Williams. The Niners have the better offense in this game. There is no debate. But the Chiefs have by far the better defense. And they also have the pieces on defense to slow down the SF offense. I've already laid out why I think the KC run defense is much better than anyone thinks. But I also think the play of the Chiefs CBs is not being properly accounted for. The Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens had the best three offenses in the AFC this year and the Chiefs have completely blanked them in the pass game in their three playoff wins. Look at the stat lines those opposing QBs have put up:

Tua: 51% for 199 yards and 5.1 YPA

Josh Allen: 67% for 186 yards and 4.8 YPA

Lamar: 54% for 272 yards and 7.4 YPA

The Chiefs 4 CBs are playing at an insane level. During those three playoff games against the best three offenses the conference had to offer, they have allowed a combined 47% of targets to be caught for 262 yards. Insane. And if you're CBs can play well and man up on WR and make Purdy hold the ball then you have this problem:

5. The 49ers four offensive lineman other than Trent Williams are pilons in pass protection.

It's been an issue all year. The other 4 guys on the OL are bad. But SF has been ahead so much that they haven't been exposed often. PFF grades the other 4 Niners OL as below replacement level pass blockers. RT Colton McKivitz has allowed 9 sacks and 55 pressures this year. George Karlaftis and Chris Jones should both tee off here in passing situations if the Chiefs CBs work on the Niners WR like they have the other good offenses they have played in the playoffs.

Purdy has been atrocious against the two Top 5 pass defenses he has faced this year and that is largely due to the Browns and Ravens having excellent secondaries like the Chiefs, and Purdy being forced to hold the ball and allowing the other 4 OL to be exposed. Against the Ravens, Purdy held the ball for almost 3 seconds and was pressured on 42% of drop backs. Against the Browns he was pressured on 48% of drop backs. I'm expecting heavy pressure in this one from KC.

6. Coaching

I think you can call OC Kyle Shanahan vs DC Steve Spagnuolo a wash. They are the two best in the league in my opinion. But Andy Reid with prep time vs DC Steve Wilks is a disaster for the 49ers. Wilks has been stubborn all year sitting back in zones and refusing to adjust the defense. Shanahan has had to involve himself in the defensive meetings multiple times. In the NFC Championship game, the 49ers were gashed the entire game by Amon Ra St. Brown. It wasn't until a late 3rd down that Wilks finally moved CB Charvarius Ward onto Brown for just one single play. Ward is a great player. But Wilks does not move guys on defense. Ward plays left CB 94% of snaps. Reid with two weeks prep can move Rice and Kelce around and away from Ward. I expect big games from both. Kelce has actually played 61% of snaps in the slot or out wide this year. He should get some great looks here against the much weaker SF defenders.

And then there is the issue of coaching game management. Andy Reid is no saint here to be sure. But Kyle Shanahan is the King of all Kings in making -EV decisions. He's done it his entire career in big spots. Continually clamming up and getting conservative. It has cost him BIG. At least two Super Bowls. We saw just two weeks ago before the half yet again he pissed away an opportunity for a TD somehow burning off 4 minutes and only settling for a long FG. TRUST that he will come up small and cost them again. There is nothing to say otherwise.

7. Intangibles

This can tie in the coaching decisions as well and is more opinion based. But Mahomes and KC right now are not making mistakes. Mahomes has a negatively graded play rate in the playoffs of just 6% and that is against the best three teams in the AFC. Purdy has a negatively graded play rate of 23%, which for the season would be dead last. And he's had the fortune of playing his two playoff games as TD+ favorites against two pathetic pass defenses. He's looked confused and jittery. If KC CBs play like I think, and SF's OL gets exposed like I expect, I think Purdy is going to look terrible.

The Chiefs have by far the better kicker too. Butler has kicked in big games for years and has only missed 2 kicks the entire season. Moody for SF has missed 3 kicks in the last 3 games and a lot of the ones he's made have been moving all over the place.

And I gotta tell ya. I watched the media night event. The Chiefs were booed mercilessly. This game is going to be 80% Niners fans. KC will have the building and everyone against them and I think they relish it. They've needed this and they thrive in these environments. There was a moment with Mahomes and Purdy on stage together and Purdy looked like he was shitting his pants hearing the crowd boo Mahomes. He couldn't even look at him. The Niners are going to feel pressure in this game. It's impossible not to when the crowd is on your side but against Mahomes. Look what happened in Baltimore. You can sense when the crowd knows Mahomes is on the other side. And when that pressure is on, cracked pipes become burst pipes. 

There's been some discussion too about how the Niners haven't played a good playoff game yet and the Chiefs have shot their load. Small sample but favorites in the Super Bowl after not covering the championship game are 0-5 ATS since 2000. Playing bad in the semi-final is a precursor to playing bad in the big game. It is the opposite for underdogs like the Chiefs. Dogs in the Super Bowl after winning SU as dogs in the championship game are 10-1 ATS since 2000.

To sum up: I think the modelers and stats guys are missing some key pieces of context. They aren’t truly digging deep enough. Statistics and models don’t allow them to. They are betting against Mahomes and KC as underdogs yet AGAIN. It is true definition of insanity.

@andarmac99

I have no argument regarding your analysis of the game from the KC perspective. Lots of great points. My issue is that based on everything I have read and watched, including Covers, very few are “insane” enough to be on the Niners. From Billy Walters, to Big Head bets, to Collin Cowherd, to Michael Lombardi to Bill Simmons to the entire CBS website football pundits (all 7 of them) to 75% of ESPN analysts (something like 45-15), not to mention Don Juan on Covers and Alien 1, Wizerguy, yourself, etc are all on the Chiefs!!!

So who, in their right mind, is insane enough to be betting the Niners?! 

And if the answer is nobody, then why isn’t this line dropping?! 

Go all in  

@begginerboy

The line is beginning to drop. I expect it to drop further. 

None of those people you mentioned have any influence over the NFL market. Books are using models to set lines so groups using models don’t beat them. The models like SF and that’s why they are favored. 

I think what’s happening is books are getting so many small KC bets that it’s adding up too much. They need some of the SF money from the sharp groups so the line is ticking down. Think it might land 1. At PK they get too much influential SF money. 

There is no way this game gets to a pick.

its at 1.5 at some very small books but the fact that Circa has not budged all week tells me they are comfortable with the risk level even with an influx of KC bets.  

Also Pinnacle is stuck on 2 and they are more concerned with the total moving that to 47 on and off during the week.

Not the same as before, Books took a position on kc last year, as the money was on the favorite eagles.  So last year they bet on mahomes and cleaned up.  For sb 55 mahomes was favored and had the money on him, once again, and books won with tampa.  Judge by the lack of line moves this year it seems the books are betting on sf.  nothing insane about it.

How about the people that backed Nick Foles over Tom Brady. Now that was insanity.  It paid off. Sometimes it's difficult to bet on a team that is "soft" can't stop the run but, maybe they will be better. It's almost to back a tram that has 79% bets and 77% money. Not saying the public doesn't win. It just usually doesn't happen in the big game. Atleast , other forces don't allow it. I'd rather be on the side that Vegas needs badly . 

Circa just moved to -1.5

The line hasn't moved dude. I expect more of KC. Common sense ! They love Travis and Swift. Lmao, KC is straight ?? Clowns. Hollywood attention Clowns. If anyone has" IT COMInG " it is certainly KC. They robbed San Fran with the help of Bill vinovich.  Ole Billy is back. Will he allow them to hold every down. Bosa said atleast 2 players hold every snap. Probably hold the WR's as well. And beside your sell out Kelce you have crap skill players. Watch them script a big game for rice. It's the only way he has a big game. It's funny so many touchdowns from KC appears on Busted Coverages. I See guys wide open the most with the chiefs. Are you going to tell me it's the scheme? Because it's Kelce that is wide open on bust for many of these touchdowns.  Look for yourself. SMH  

Some 83 percent of all bets and 82 percent of all the money laid down is in the favor of Kansas City, according to sportsbettingdime.com. One reason for the Niners giving two points is due to a significant amount of futures bets on the team that need to be balanced.

I think that's spot-on. 

Don't believe that futures excuse.  They balance them during the season and don't let any outcome be devasting.  Books already won with futures, 30 teams have been eliminated, probably a lot of money on bills, ravens, eagles, cowboys, lions earlier in the year, put them all together and it should outweigh any outcome.  Not to mention the chiefs futures, which are probably pretty high from before the season.  add chiefs futures to all the money wagered on them now and there is no way sf is a major  liability.  They are setting a trap and taking a position on sf.  the public is getting more experienced so they have to make up a reason why they are not moving the line 

@lordbettington

Good points but weren’t the Niners and Chiefs both the favorites futures wise?  Also I think an influx of money came in on San Fran futures before start of playoffs.

I could care less-  I’m on the Niners big and have futures and did not hedge at all.  Will likely play the Niners again in a few hours on moneyline at -120

@NR114

 With you on 49ers.  

Awesome write-up as always Andy.  

No large money has been put on the Chiefs?  Maybe it’s time to tune in.   Portnoy is all over the media with half a mil on the Chiefs…this is after his Michigan bet a month ago.  The fact is you chose your side and argued for it.

Betting against Mahomes takes courage and a diaper, but it paid off plenty this year before the playoffs.

@andarmac99

 Excellent write up, per usual, A-99

The only counterpoint I can make is KC played in terrible weather in Buffalo and brutal weather vs. Miami. Any pass D would have been aided by that. 

Also, can't shake the fact that SF had only one loss this season when they were at or near full strength.  They took some serious injuries vs Cleveland and lost that game. They preceded to lose their next two.

  I feel the Niners are better top to bottom and will likely win.