Super Bowl 59 - The Time has Come

The time has come to bet against Patrick Mahomes in a big game.

The time has come for this Eagles team to get over the hump.

I’ve bet on Mahomes and the Chiefs as underdogs the last two Super Bowls. I thought the games were mispriced, and in games where the teams are razor close, I’ll take Mahomes and Reid at underdog prices to overcome small talent deficiencies every time. But this game is different. The Chiefs are favorites this time around, and importantly I don’t think the difference between these teams is razor close. The Chiefs are much worse than the 2022 team that beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl by almost every metric. And I think this Eagles team is better. Here’s a few areas where I think the Eagles have an edge that is contributing to the mispricing of the game:

The Eagles run defense is significantly better this year, and KC’s run game is much worse.

Two years ago the Eagles defense had a glaring weakness. They were 22 in run defense DVOA and 21st in run defense EPA and allowed 4.6 yards per carry. The Chiefs exploited this big time in the Super Bowl running for 158 yards at 6.1 yards per carry for 0.15 EPA/rush and a 48% success rate. The latter two numbers would have had them ranked 1 and 2 for the entire season. This year though the Eagles run defense is elite ranking 2 in DVOA run defense and 7 in run defense EPA. And KC’s running backs have been abysmal this season. Hunt and Pacheco averaged 3.6 and 3.7 yards respectively in the regular season and haven’t fared much better in the postseason averaging 3.9 YPC. Dean is a loss at LB for PHI no question, and Mahomes is a weapon with his legs, but Philly held the WSH RBs to 2.7 YPC in their last game.

The Eagles secondary is extremely good. The Chiefs WR are…ehhhhh.

Rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been incredible for the Eagles and have fundamentally changed their defense. A good argument can be made that Mitchell is already a Top 3 overall CB in the NFL and DeJean is a Top 3 slot CB. Since their secondary was set in Week 5, the Eagles rank 1 in defensive EPA, 1 in success rate, 1 in dropback EPA, 1 in dropback success rate, and 1 in run defense EPA. And they aren’t just first, but first by a country mile in most of these stats. Something I always watch for with defenses is how do they perform against good offenses? Since Week 5 the Eagles have held Joe Burrow to 17 points, Jayden Daniels to 18 and 23 points, Stafford to 20 and 22 points, and Lamar Jackson to 19 points. Their only bad game against a good QB during that span was when Daniels had a late flurry in the 2 regular season game to get to 36 after being held to 14 points at home through three quarters.

Xavier Worthy has definitely come on in recent weeks for KC but the rest of their receivers in my opinion are pedestrian at best. Hopkins has seen his snap counts and production fall off a cliff. Hollywood Brown having an impact is a possibility, but for as much hype as he gets the reality is he has 3 targets in the playoffs and is averaging a whooping 18 yards per game. Kelce is still Kelce but he is a significantly worse player than Philly played in this game two years ago. There have been many games this season where he has disappeared. He looked 60 years old in the AFC Championship game, and I have a hunch Fangio throws a true wrinkle and throws the much younger and more athletic DeJean on him on 3 downs when he plays more like a slot WR. The Eagles secondary is strong and there are not a lot of places where a pedestrian receiving corps can consistently rack up wins.

I’m concerned about the Chiefs OL.

If the Eagles secondary is racking up wins then Mahomes is going to have to hold the ball. Something he has not had to do much recently. A little known secret but the Bills secondary he faced last game is atrocious. Most players graded way below replacement level this season by PFF and their only good player, CB Christian Benford, left the game in the 1 quarter. The Bills ranked 31 in coverage grade for the season and it’s the major reason why Mahomes had his quickest time to throw last game. The ball was out immediately against a poor coverage unit and there was nothing the Bills pass rush could do. The Xmas game when the offense looked awesome against the Steelers and that elite DL? Same story. Pittsburgh’s secondary is putrid and Mahomes could get the ball out before the pass rush even had a chance.

I don’t expect the ball will be out quick here because of the Eagles coverage unit. And that should allow the Eagles DL, which has been the best and deepest in the league for 2-3 years, to get home. The Chiefs have been a mess at LT all season. They have played LG Joe Thuney there in recent weeks as their 4 option. They’ve then had to replace Thuney at LG with journeyman Mike Caliendo. These are moves I don’t agree with. Caliendo is a gas can. His 43.6 PFF pass blocking grade is awful, but his 23.0 grade in true pass sets, which I expect KC to be in a lot, is just putrid and ranks 71 out of 75 qualifying guards with 200 pass snaps. Now he plays Jalen Carter and Milton Williams, who are the best pass rushing defensive tackles in the league. Thuney is an elite guard but is a significantly worse player at tackle. He surrendered a 2.1% pressure rate playing LG this season but that has ballooned to 8.7% playing LT. And his two clean games at LT were against the aforementioned Steelers and Bills secondaries who could not cover anyone and let Mahomes get the ball out immediately. One more concern on Thuney at LT here is PHI has small speed rushers at DE in Nolan Smith and Josh Sweat. These are the types of players that can give a guard playing out of position at tackle a major problem. RG Trey Smith has had a sneaky down year ranking 30 in pass protections among guards, and RT Jawaan Taylor has been a mess all season allowing 41 pressures and committing a stunning 18 penalties.

One last point I don’t see mentioned much. This game is being played on artificial turf. We all remember the Eagles DL slipping and unable to get their footing on the slick field two years ago. But Smith and Sweat are speed players and Carter and Williams are first step quick twitch players. We often hear how it’s an advantage for the offenses to play on the “fast turf”, but I actually think with how the Eagles rush and the skill sets of their players that the fast turf is a huge benefit to their DL. The Eagles played 5 games on artificial turf this season and allowed 12, 3, 17, 6, and 20 points while amassing 83 pressures and 18 sacks! The KC offensive line is a real vulnerability here in 4 of the 5 spots and the Eagles have the perfect mesh of coverage and pass rush to cause Mahomes significant problems.

Jahan Dotson.

Yes, Jahan Dotson. Well, OK… not necessarily him as a player! But I think his presence is a real factor in this game. The Eagles play a lot of 3-WR sets. Eagles fans have been complaining all season that Dotson gets way too many snaps for so little production. But the Chiefs best run defender by a good margin is Leo Chenal. Chenal though is not a coverage player and comes off the field most of the time in passing situations. But if Philly plays 3-wide a lot again then Chenal won’t see too many snaps. If he’s off the field that allows the Eagles run game much more room to operate and they will be playing poorer run defenders. KC’s other two LB Tranquil and Bolton have had down seasons and have about 14% missed tackle rates each. The KC run defense has also fallen off a cliff in the second half of the season. One reason may be that teams have gameplanned to get Chenal off the field. His snap counts are down about 10% over the second half of the year. The Eagles ground game should have some success.

One more benefit of Dotson and playing 3-WR sets is it pulls a player away from the line of scrimmage and makes it harder to blitz. Spags will still try to blitz the slot coverage player, but the further away that player is from the ball at the snap, the harder the blitz becomes. If you remember the key blitz on 4 down in the Buffalo game the Bills had a bunch of players on the short hash that allowed an easy blitz and short path to the QB.

Kansas City’s good fortune.

Yes, the Chiefs have Mahomes and Reid. Yes, they don’t beat themselves and make key play when it matters most. But the Chiefs have run absurdly good in high leverage situations this season. Go back to Week 1 when they won when Likely had a toenail out of bounds. Week 2 a 5 string DB for Cincy who didn’t play the rest of the year commits PI on 4 down. Week 3 a bogus no call against Kyle Pitts in the endzone. The list goes on and on. Blocked FGs, doinked in FGs, OT coin toss wins. In the playoffs they were the beneficiary of two pathetic roughing the passer calls against Houston. The Bills had the lead and the ball and clearly made that first down in the AFC Championship game but KC somehow was awarded the stop. Even on the last play of the game Kincaid was wide open and misplayed a ball that should have been caught.

Do Mahomes and the coaching staff make key plays and not beat themselves? Yes. Are the refs on KC’s side? No that is nonsense. But you have to acknowledge that many times this season KC has simply had luck and positive variance go their way in MAJOR high leverage situations. There is no reason to expect that to continue but it is absolutely priced into this line.

Well, enough rambling. I like the Eagles. I think they are the better team and have several overlooked matchup advantages. Mahomes and the coaching staff are obvious edges for KC. Hurts needs to play like he did in the NFC Championship where he did not hold the ball and got it out on time, in rhythm, and with accuracy. Mahomes is hell to beat but he’s going to have to earn every blade of grass in this matchup against a tough defense. No doubt Reid will try sweeps, end arounds, etc. Actually think Brandon Graham playing is a nice late edge. He’s still a rock setting the edge and even 15 snaps of him there can force the jets and sweeps back inside. Ultimately, I think the Eagles can move the ball with some success and win a 27-20 type game.

Eagles +1

Good luck everyone.

Nice research… GL bud

Nice write-up!!  Thanks for sharing!

Great write up....it's for all these reasons and more I'm on Eagles+1.5....

Then -6.5, 9.5, 11.5 and 13.5.... ., laddered appropriately 

@andarmac99

Good call on Kansas City in last year's Super Bowl, good luck in this Super Bowl. Fly Eagles, fly! 

 Back & GL  on your plays @andarmac99

 Excellent analogy by the way

Nice write up. Couldn’t agree more let go Eagles. 

@andarmac99

You are right. When you take the names off the uniforms, and look at this game objectively, it makes zero sense from a Football standpoint to take the Chiefs. Except for their pedigree and past successes and names on the uniforms, there is little to like about this year’s version of the Chiefs. It’s Eagles by a mile! I love Fangio and that defense is one of the best I have seen in years. But this team is not like that happy-go-lucky Eagles team that beat the Pats, and I’m not talking talent here. Something is off with their chemistry. 

There is a lack of cohesiveness and togetherness that’s palpable, even watching from home. On the field, this has translated into them not always playing complimentary football. There have been several instances this year where the offense, and the choices made by the offensive coaches, have put the defense in a bad spot. Even within the offense unit, guys are more interested in catching up on their reading on the sidelines than studying their opponents for the next opportunity.

Against lesser competition, it did not matter and they ended up winning (like the Rams game when an average Rams team drove the field and almost scored a goal ahead TD to beat the big, bad Eagles!). But how will that lack of cohesion translate against better teams? These are the things I also pay attention to when I watch games. The intangibles. Things you can’t quantify and that don’t show up on a stat sheet. Can the Eagles put it all together on the biggest stage? Of course they can. And if they play together as a team and put their egos aside they will beat KC and beat them handily. But there is also the very distinct possibility that the pressure on the biggest of stages will cause these cracks to really show, giving the wily, veteran Chiefs the opportunity to take the game from the more talented team. 

Bol today

99 incredible input 

There’s a reason why the Bills didn’t get that first down. Can’t beat the refs.

@begginerboy

 Appreciate your thoughts but don't agree with the lack of cohesion and chemistry. That was something that you could say about last year's team when it was readily apparent there were locker room issues.

Things are much different this year. They flushed out the two coordinators who were not well liked at all, and brought in guys in Moore and Fangio who have total buy-in from the players. Barkley and Baun are guys they brought in as free agents that have taken major leadership roles in the offensive and defensive rooms. Rookies Mitchell and DeJean have fit in flawlessly on a defense that desperately needed stability in the back.

They also got rid of a certain Center who is now a TV talking head that may have been a bit too stubborn and old school. There is a fresh attitude in the locker room this year where guys are free to be themselves. I have no problem with AJ Brown being himself and needing to read a few quotes to keep him grounded on the sideline. This was something he was not permitted to do in previous years and he would lose control of his emotions in the past. 

Mentally, physically, and emotionally this team is very connected right now. It's their time.

@andarmac99

  #16 and input

Thanks fellas.

Good to see some familiar old names. 

Not saying you’re wrong but I said the same thing against the Bills.  I really do hope the Eagles win but if it comes down to close calls you know KC is getting them.  You have valid points.  

good luck bud 

Absolute masterpiece. 

Until next time fellas.

@andarmac99

Nice write up. Congrats.