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Posted: #26
I agree with charlielo55.  taking the favorite ML in the super bowl is probably the worst bet in all of sports.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by tsw:

I agree with charlielo55.  taking the favorite ML in the super bowl is probably the worst bet in all of sports.
 
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Posted: #28
BH...as always, thanks for the analysis and for welcoming others' thoughts and insights. Here are some of my random thoughts:
 
For Pitt -> Dick Lebeau's brain and stature. He is the one consistent factor over the last 5 years and during the mid 90s. Take the player out of the system and their production almost always drops off. He is the best evaluator of talent, knows how to position his talent, plans brilliant game plans and motivates like no one can.
 
For Pitt -> The 3-4 D over the 4-3 D. NYG proved you can win with the 4-3, but I think some of the 4-3s use a smallish, mobile and athletic DE and really is a disguised/hybrid 3-4. The 3-4 is better suited to stop the run (game control), to use and disguise zone blitzes and better at changing to yard- and down-specific schemes...i.e., Pitt's 2-man pass fronts to 7/8 man run blitzes. Lebeau implements this almost to perfection.
 
For Pitt -> More offensive options. Parker is healthy and can run well inside and outside. Pass options are spread out amongst Miller, Ward (status? - more later), Holmes, Wash., and Moore. This is more difficult to focus/double team/stop.
 
For Pitt -> Experience, discipline, leadership...who will commit the stupid penalty ala Antoine Smith or Daren Stone? I think it will be the Cards, not Pitt. Negative penalties and sacks are like turnovers.
 
Against Pitt -> Disagree with you on this one, but the OL is still questionnable, imo. I think Ben's mobililty and size has saved the OL on many occasions, but give a team with rest (Ravens were running on empty) and I think they can penetrate and drop Ben.
 
Against Pitt-> Few two back sets. I think Pitt is easier to defend with one back sets. This is something they have done more and I think it is easier for a 4-3 to gap and penetrate.
 
Against Pitt -> Hines Ward's knee...that slomo replay said alot, and the fact that he tried and left says alot about this gritty player. He opens up the offense and he is an on-field leader. His loss would be big. I hope he can start and be 100%, but if not...???
 
Against Pitt -> Special teams...coverge teams. Watch NFL replay and see for yourself.
 
Against Pitt-> They are NOT a blowout team and have shown, imo, to be susceptible to conservative tendencies, perhaps because they have such a high-octane D. Laying 7 points on any game against a rested, top-caliber (?? see below), is tough to do.
 
For Cards -> Jekyl and Hyde...how do you prepare for them? They are running the opposite of what you expect them to do. Whisenhunt has emphasized balance as a key...well that worked because everyone expected pass, pass, pass. Now what...expect balance, but I can easily see them plan to go exclusive to the pass. Give credit to coaches and their game plans in the playoffs.
 
For Cards -> Warner. You covered this, but I recall a stat on Fox about his completion %ge against the blitz and it was significantly higher. Conclusion...Warner has experience and has seen it all.
 
For Cards -> Fitzgerald. Who does Pitt have to jam this guy? You may be able to tell me, but what a big psych advantage having this guy as a go to or a decoy.
 
For Cards -> Momentum. This team has athletes on D and they are starting to really believe. The last three games, they have had different players step up on different plays. They are playing as a team and you can see how confident they are. They pushed around three very good OLs and I think they can pressure Ben.
 
Against Cards -> Roderick Hood!!! How have the Cards progressed so far with this guy as an every-down CB??? He is a deep beat or interference penalty waiting to happen. I put this as the number #1 WEAKNESS because he sucks.
 
Against Cards -> as stated above, can Antoine Smith and other young Cards not be Antoine Smith or Daren Stone and commit the bonehead play?? Likely not.
 
Against Cards -> Fewer options on O. Stop Fitz and the rest does not scare me. Boldin still looks like something is bothering him. James is not a game breaker...recall the stat on the Cards having the highest %ge of zero or negative runs...not good. Breaston, Hightower and Pope scares no one.
 
Against Cards -> Coming from behind makes Warner and team susceptible to blowouts. They look great with the lead and pass only sets and plays will make them easy to defend. Because of this, I think an alternative line like Pitt -14 would be just as good as Pitt -7.
 
Conclusion: No decsion yet...I am either going to take the points or play an alt line on Pitt. Fence sitting I guess.
 
I think the Ds will play well and I lean under, but will not likely play it because I am usually over-biased for the SB.
 
Keep up the good analysis BH.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by KC_Barney:

BH...as always, thanks for the analysis and for welcoming others' thoughts and insights. Here are some of my random thoughts:
 
For Pitt -> Dick Lebeau's brain and stature. He is the one consistent factor over the last 5 years and during the mid 90s. Take the player out of the system and their production almost always drops off. He is the best evaluator of talent, knows how to position his talent, plans brilliant game plans and motivates like no one can.
 
For Pitt -> The 3-4 D over the 4-3 D. NYG proved you can win with the 4-3, but I think some of the 4-3s use a smallish, mobile and athletic DE and really is a disguised/hybrid 3-4. The 3-4 is better suited to stop the run (game control), to use and disguise zone blitzes and better at changing to yard- and down-specific schemes...i.e., Pitt's 2-man pass fronts to 7/8 man run blitzes. Lebeau implements this almost to perfection.
 
For Pitt -> More offensive options. Parker is healthy and can run well inside and outside. Pass options are spread out amongst Miller, Ward (status? - more later), Holmes, Wash., and Moore. This is more difficult to focus/double team/stop.
 
For Pitt -> Experience, discipline, leadership...who will commit the stupid penalty ala Antoine Smith or Daren Stone? I think it will be the Cards, not Pitt. Negative penalties and sacks are like turnovers.
 
Against Pitt -> Disagree with you on this one, but the OL is still questionnable, imo. I think Ben's mobililty and size has saved the OL on many occasions, but give a team with rest (Ravens were running on empty) and I think they can penetrate and drop Ben.
 
Against Pitt-> Few two back sets. I think Pitt is easier to defend with one back sets. This is something they have done more and I think it is easier for a 4-3 to gap and penetrate.
 
Against Pitt -> Hines Ward's knee...that slomo replay said alot, and the fact that he tried and left says alot about this gritty player. He opens up the offense and he is an on-field leader. His loss would be big. I hope he can start and be 100%, but if not...???
 
Against Pitt -> Special teams...coverge teams. Watch NFL replay and see for yourself.
 
Against Pitt-> They are NOT a blowout team and have shown, imo, to be susceptible to conservative tendencies, perhaps because they have such a high-octane D. Laying 7 points on any game against a rested, top-caliber (?? see below), is tough to do.
 
For Cards -> Jekyl and Hyde...how do you prepare for them? They are running the opposite of what you expect them to do. Whisenhunt has emphasized balance as a key...well that worked because everyone expected pass, pass, pass. Now what...expect balance, but I can easily see them plan to go exclusive to the pass. Give credit to coaches and their game plans in the playoffs.
 
For Cards -> Warner. You covered this, but I recall a stat on Fox about his completion %ge against the blitz and it was significantly higher. Conclusion...Warner has experience and has seen it all.
 
For Cards -> Fitzgerald. Who does Pitt have to jam this guy? You may be able to tell me, but what a big psych advantage having this guy as a go to or a decoy.
 
For Cards -> Momentum. This team has athletes on D and they are starting to really believe. The last three games, they have had different players step up on different plays. They are playing as a team and you can see how confident they are. They pushed around three very good OLs and I think they can pressure Ben.
 
Against Cards -> Roderick Hood!!! How have the Cards progressed so far with this guy as an every-down CB??? He is a deep beat or interference penalty waiting to happen. I put this as the number #1 WEAKNESS because he sucks.
 
Against Cards -> as stated above, can Antoine Smith and other young Cards not be Antoine Smith or Daren Stone and commit the bonehead play?? Likely not.
 
Against Cards -> Fewer options on O. Stop Fitz and the rest does not scare me. Boldin still looks like something is bothering him. James is not a game breaker...recall the stat on the Cards having the highest %ge of zero or negative runs...not good. Breaston, Hightower and Pope scares no one.
 
Against Cards -> Coming from behind makes Warner and team susceptible to blowouts. They look great with the lead and pass only sets and plays will make them easy to defend. Because of this, I think an alternative line like Pitt -14 would be just as good as Pitt -7.
 
Conclusion: No decsion yet...I am either going to take the points or play an alt line on Pitt. Fence sitting I guess.
 
I think the Ds will play well and I lean under, but will not likely play it because I am usually over-biased for the SB.
 
Keep up the good analysis BH.
 
 
 
 
 

 

I think you're wrong on that. Arizona is hands down better in the receiver department. Parker may be a little younger and quicker, but James has experience and Hightower is a talented sub.....

 
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Posted: #30
Go pitts
 
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Posted: #31
Pitt by more than 20
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by tsw:

I agree with charlielo55.  taking the favorite ML in the super bowl is probably the worst bet in all of sports.

Only if you're on the wrong side.

 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by KC_Barney:

BH...as always, thanks for the analysis and for welcoming others' thoughts and insights. Here are some of my random thoughts:
 
For Pitt -> Dick Lebeau's brain and stature. He is the one consistent factor over the last 5 years and during the mid 90s. Take the player out of the system and their production almost always drops off. He is the best evaluator of talent, knows how to position his talent, plans brilliant game plans and motivates like no one can.
 
For Pitt -> The 3-4 D over the 4-3 D. NYG proved you can win with the 4-3, but I think some of the 4-3s use a smallish, mobile and athletic DE and really is a disguised/hybrid 3-4. The 3-4 is better suited to stop the run (game control), to use and disguise zone blitzes and better at changing to yard- and down-specific schemes...i.e., Pitt's 2-man pass fronts to 7/8 man run blitzes. Lebeau implements this almost to perfection.
 
For Pitt -> More offensive options. Parker is healthy and can run well inside and outside. Pass options are spread out amongst Miller, Ward (status? - more later), Holmes, Wash., and Moore. This is more difficult to focus/double team/stop.
 
For Pitt -> Experience, discipline, leadership...who will commit the stupid penalty ala Antoine Smith or Daren Stone? I think it will be the Cards, not Pitt. Negative penalties and sacks are like turnovers.
 
Against Pitt -> Disagree with you on this one, but the OL is still questionnable, imo. I think Ben's mobililty and size has saved the OL on many occasions, but give a team with rest (Ravens were running on empty) and I think they can penetrate and drop Ben.
 
Against Pitt-> Few two back sets. I think Pitt is easier to defend with one back sets. This is something they have done more and I think it is easier for a 4-3 to gap and penetrate.
 
Against Pitt -> Hines Ward's knee...that slomo replay said alot, and the fact that he tried and left says alot about this gritty player. He opens up the offense and he is an on-field leader. His loss would be big. I hope he can start and be 100%, but if not...???
 
Against Pitt -> Special teams...coverge teams. Watch NFL replay and see for yourself.
 
Against Pitt-> They are NOT a blowout team and have shown, imo, to be susceptible to conservative tendencies, perhaps because they have such a high-octane D. Laying 7 points on any game against a rested, top-caliber (?? see below), is tough to do.
 
For Cards -> Jekyl and Hyde...how do you prepare for them? They are running the opposite of what you expect them to do. Whisenhunt has emphasized balance as a key...well that worked because everyone expected pass, pass, pass. Now what...expect balance, but I can easily see them plan to go exclusive to the pass. Give credit to coaches and their game plans in the playoffs.
 
For Cards -> Warner. You covered this, but I recall a stat on Fox about his completion %ge against the blitz and it was significantly higher. Conclusion...Warner has experience and has seen it all.
 
For Cards -> Fitzgerald. Who does Pitt have to jam this guy? You may be able to tell me, but what a big psych advantage having this guy as a go to or a decoy.
 
For Cards -> Momentum. This team has athletes on D and they are starting to really believe. The last three games, they have had different players step up on different plays. They are playing as a team and you can see how confident they are. They pushed around three very good OLs and I think they can pressure Ben.
 
Against Cards -> Roderick Hood!!! How have the Cards progressed so far with this guy as an every-down CB??? He is a deep beat or interference penalty waiting to happen. I put this as the number #1 WEAKNESS because he sucks.
 
Against Cards -> as stated above, can Antoine Smith and other young Cards not be Antoine Smith or Daren Stone and commit the bonehead play?? Likely not.
 
Against Cards -> Fewer options on O. Stop Fitz and the rest does not scare me. Boldin still looks like something is bothering him. James is not a game breaker...recall the stat on the Cards having the highest %ge of zero or negative runs...not good. Breaston, Hightower and Pope scares no one.
 
Against Cards -> Coming from behind makes Warner and team susceptible to blowouts. They look great with the lead and pass only sets and plays will make them easy to defend. Because of this, I think an alternative line like Pitt -14 would be just as good as Pitt -7.
 
Conclusion: No decsion yet...I am either going to take the points or play an alt line on Pitt. Fence sitting I guess.
 
I think the Ds will play well and I lean under, but will not likely play it because I am usually over-biased for the SB.
 
Keep up the good analysis BH.
 
 
 
 
 

Thats pretty outstanding analysis yourself KC.  Great points on both sides.

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

GL bighans  ...
 
But in all fairness, Pitts defensive numbers are a little misleading. Most of the teams they played didnt have a good QB(Flacco 3 times, Cleveland qbs 2 times, Cincys Qbs 2 times, Garrard, Campbell, Kerry collins..etc..... So stopping the run meant forcing a subpar QB to beat them.....most couldnt. Played 2 Warner caliber players all season (Rivers and P. Manning).....manning beat them on the road and Rivers was in both games on the road.....
 
Dont let the number fool you.
 
Not trying to be an ass, just starting a discussion.
 

No worries train, youre right about some of those QBs.  BTW, are you hedging your big futures bet?

 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by texancapper:

BigHan - don't take this personal but I feel you are a much better than your avg. capper to hit Pitt ML. It's not a sure thing bud, you and I both know that. You are better off at picking the sides or the O/U and I know you can do that. You just got me confused with your "big ML play" in this Superbowl. BOL to you brotha man.  

No worries I appreciate the feedback.  I really like how Pitt matches up but I am hesitating on laying the points because Zona is fully capable of keeping it close or getting a back door.  I have a strong feeling that Pitt pulls it out, so thats where the majority of my money is going.

I think Pitt handles adversity better, is better tested, is better able to stay in the game if things dont go their way.  Their defense will always keep them in it, no matter what.  If Ben plays well Pitt may win by double digits. 

BOL

 
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Posted: #36
Pitt/Over Teaser looks solid.  Don't have to lay the extra cash as ML and as long as the game is somewhat competitive they should have not problem getting to 40.  I don't think Pitt will have any problem with Arizona defense.  Atlanta put up points, Delhomme played the worst game I've ever seen otherwise they would have put up serious points, and Eagles had no trouble scoring points once they decided to play.  Both teams love to throw the deep ball.  I think this will result in points points points. 
 
Pitt/Over Teaser will be my big play.  Probably roll a parlay as soon as I see the line below a TD
 
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Posted: #37
OVER is a big play for me.
Perfect weather, Kurt and Ben throwing all day.
 
Don't know if should go with:
 
Pit -0.5, over 40 teaser or
AZ +12.5, over 40 teaser
 
Any advice?
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by BigHans:

No worries I appreciate the feedback.  I really like how Pitt matches up but I am hesitating on laying the points because Zona is fully capable of keeping it close or getting a back door.  I have a strong feeling that Pitt pulls it out, so thats where the majority of my money is going.

I think Pitt handles adversity better, is better tested, is better able to stay in the game if things dont go their way.  Their defense will always keep them in it, no matter what.  If Ben plays well Pitt may win by double digits. 

BOL

 

Defenses going to win the final game, not offense IMHO. It's going to be a battle for both. Playing great defenses takes WILL & POWER along with scheme and the Cards got plenty of that lately. We know Pitt have always gotten the Will & Power to play defense. Should be interesting.

 

 
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Posted: #39
Moved off he fence...taking Cards and the value in the 7 points.
 
Also moved on the under.
 
Good luck on the ML...lots of room for both of us to win.
 
 
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by BigHans:

No worries train, youre right about some of those QBs.  BTW, are you hedging your big futures bet?

 

I did a little. I have Pitt to win SB +150 for a few units. Will probably leave it alone at least until half time....

 

gl to you sir

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