Super Bowl LV - 7 picks

@melossinglet

@john1c

 Luck is when the skills meet the opportunity. The oxford dictionary says that

@brownidentity

LOL I’m sure that under 27.5 was a well thought out bet

lucky nerd 

The way Andy Reid was controlling the clock at the end of the first half was the testimony of what I said about him and Brady having the same interest

Great first half brother 

 Congrats to a great card. 

Great job as always 14allall41. Thank you

You sure are one of those sharp pencils from prehistoric tribe of Neanderthals bro. The man is anything but a "lucky nerd". Look him up. 35-24-3 NFL before tonight. 

You must be one of those hulky bullies ah? Calling smart people nerds. Wish I had 5 mins with you alone to show you what people with your mouth are worth of

@14allall41

 Was looking for your posts today.  Shit didn't see until after game started.

let me have his punk a$$ after you’re done!

Hey. Great job Allall.

Really.

But, I have a question. I came across a very strange -  to say the least - coincidence. 

You wrote: """

1. Brady has been 9 times in the Super Bowl first quarters. The only time his team scored was against the Eagles three Super Bowls ago. And those were the only 3 points scored in Brady's 9 first quarters combined. Why? Because he was quarterbacking the close to perfect team he could activate at any time and win or lose as he wanted to. He was in total control. I saw all those Super Bowls and I can tell you there is no one else who reads the defenses the way he does or manipulates them at his will. But, this is a new situation and he has Patrick Mahomes opposing him - the other new "Brady" that can win or lose at his will. Therefore Brady won't take chances here. He will be at full gear from the first snap.

2. Mahomes  - the new "Brady" is quarterbacking the "new New England Patriots". Same mentality. See the above.

3. See the two above.

4. See above.

5. The line tells it all. It asks for under.

6. Reid wants to erase Belichicks legacy. Brady wants to prove he is the only cause the Pats won 6 Super Bowls in last 20 years. The goals of both are matching. What is losing one Super Bowl for Reid if he can prove with that the only reason the Pats won was Brady. So, Reid will be the greatest coach after winning five more Super Bowls or even more with Mahomes while like Michael Tal -one of the greatest chess masters - he will sacrifice one battle to win the war. Today is the battle he will throw and Brady will gratefully grab it.

7. See 6 """

And Phixer wrote some 24 hours before you posted your picks:

"""

The thing is that while Reid is on his way to establish the dynasty to better the one of Belichick - the path of that is laying in discrediting Belichick's achievements first. And that is way more than winning one Super Bowl. If the Chiefs will lose to Brady with the Bucs - that will be an eternal proof that Belichick without Brady is just another coach that may be better than many but is totally dependent on his Super Brady.

You can argue the same will happen one day to Reid when Mahomes will leave his Chiefs... IF.

And, here we go with another argument in the favor of the narrative lead by me: Brady himself is very interested in delivering the very same message saying - it is me, Brady, who brought those Super Bowls to New England and without me - the Pats ain't worth much. The proof is in the pudding - here's my Super Bowl with the Bucs.

So, in this matchup between Brady and Reid - both parties are interested in the same outcome."""

And, he also wrote:

This Super Bowl 55 doesn't have the same taste for me the previous Super Bowls had. Somehow - the football fatigue created by two weeks of waiting and seeing the markets become overly popular and overly obvious with some bets made me wanna stay away from some trends and overly crunched up numbers.

This is a classic example of how an obvious trend has been so overly exposed and talked about that it makes it almost impossible to back: Brady has been a part of 9 Super Bowl's so far. And, how many points Brady's Patriots scored in those 9 first quarters? 3.   9 quarters have produced 3 points only and that happened against the Eagles in Super Bowl 52 and that was also the only time any of those 9  games had 10 or more points scored in the first quarter.

SUPER BOWL - TOM BRADY 1ST QUARTER SCORING

What do those stats tell us and are they valid for this game as well?

Ok. This is my read.

Tom Brady - being great passer and the defense reader - is always sure he can have the game directed the way he wants. He loses when he wants and wins when he wants. he also understand he can't win all the time. The last one to do it and understand the consequences later was MJ and no one else is doing that since. So, my take is that getting a bit older and understanding this Super Bowl is not like any other and this can also be his last one physically, and, knowing that he is being opposed by Football Steph Curry - kind of a Joker that can pull a TD from any piece of play - he will go and play hard from the beginning and the line also shows us that giving us TB TT at 5.5 in the first quarter. And all that after seeing the table I just drew for you above this paragraph.

So, my first pick is the Bucs Team Total Over 5.5 First Quarter"""

Do you see the similarities?  So, either you read it there too and took the same picks, or you actually are Phixer, or it is a crazy coincidence.

In any case -it is great to have you on Covers and I feel lucky we can have you here

Wow. Excellent job as usual 14allall41. Seems like 6-1 is guaranteed. Wow. I regret I only tailed your 4 picks (although all won). 

1. Bucs First Quarter Team Total: Over 5.5   

2. Chiefs First Quarter Team Total: Under 6.5  

3. Bucs +0.5 First Quarter  

4. Time of the first score: Before 6 minutes  

5. First Half Totals: Under 27.5 

6. Bucs +3  

7. Bucs ML  

6-1 

41-25-1 NFL this season

@john1c

@melossinglet

@PowellPower

@berserker_76

@DietCoke

@cdog8043

@Grunger1972

@LB_Dirtbags

@ROCKON

I don't think anyone here on Covers or anywhere else went 6-1 on Super bowl 55. Great job and thanks!

Amazing job.  Your a all star broski..congrats

Un-freakin'-believable ending to the season brother

Truly amazing.

killer job

One of the best cappers on here!!! 

Nice season. Look forward to next. Cashed out a great week not too long ago. 

congratulations

Thanks for the kind words. I'm sure I'm not the only one who saw the angles to those outcomes. The first quarter perception of Brady scoring was actually supported by the line itself as why the odds makers offer us such high line as 5.5 to cover while Brady didn't score a single TD in his previous 9 Super Bowl first quarters? And then there was a line of 6.5 for the Chiefs which was begging for taking and we all know when Vegas is begging - never submit. That all resulted in an inevitable pick on the Bucs in the first quarter. So here we are with 3-0. Then came an under on the first half where I really did get lucky with that 4th down not being converted. That reminds me Clint Eastwood in Unforgiven when he say he is always lucky when it comes to... I did lose that time of the first score bet and the other two - on Bucs winning it all and covering were the result of my unique angle and that I do take credit for. 

So, that is the breakdown