Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
I already have Seattle in my futures bet but I'm willing to add on. Seattle just played one of its worst games (on offense) and NE one of its best (against a team that is, in all honesty, not very talented). This has changed public perception so that the line, which was initially set at Seattle -3 (and was -3 at the halftime of the NE game) is now pickem. I've watched this Seattle team all year and that was Wilson's worst performance (for 3.5 quarters). The guy just was not himself (and GB D also had something to do with that). He was not running, his decision making was poor and he was a turnover machine (all very uncharacteristic). Oh, and he was probably playing with a concussion (from midway through the 2nd quarter, I believe). As I mentioned in my write-up to that game, the game would be decided by how Seahawks O played against GB D and for 3.5 quarters they were terrible. Once they got going, GB could not stop them, as they wore that Packer D down.
But Wilson is the real deal (not many QB's could have overcome that putrid performance, or have had the confidence in themselves to bring their team back) and he will punish that slow, obese D-line of NE's. Just go back and watch the tape of Ravens vs NE. Falcco had so much room to run, and move around, that it was comical. But he is not a runner, like Wilson, so he could not make them pay. Still, Baltimore was very successful at rushing the ball, while Indi has no running game, and I expect Seattle to run all over NE.
Meanwhile, Indi's D made NE's Blount look like Eric Dickerson. That's won't happen against a stout Seattle D. So it will be Brady vs Seattle's secondary, which to me is a wash. Again, the game will come down to Seattle O vs NE D and I give Seattle the edge there, especially after they laid an egg against GB.
Psychologically, I give a big edge to Seattle. It is a minor miracle that they have the chance to defend their title (after letting it almost slip away). I believe they will be much sharper in this game, and play looser, with less pressure (especially if they are dogs by kickoff, as this team loves playing with a chip on its shoulder). Now they are playing an equal (in NE) and have a chance to cement their legacy by beating another dynasty (which is a lot better than playing a big underdog that no one expects to win and that you've already beaten by 20 points).
Meanwhile, NE is playing with a lot of pressure in trying to cement their legacy. Why? Because of all that has happened since winning 3 super bowls. Two SB defeats (in heartbreaking fashion), allegations of cheating (which have surfaced yet again throughout these playoffs) which cast a shadow over their legacy, knowing that this might be their last chance (with Brady and Bill), all of this will weigh heavily on this team (as will the media questioning them about cheating allegations for the next two weeks) and will make them play tight, especially in the big moments (not to mention, they won't be able to use the tricks they used to defeat the Ravens and Indi).
Recall what happened to the Bills, after one crushing defeat at the hands of the Giants. They never recovered. NE has now had two crushing defeats, at the hands of the same Giants (ironically enough). Call it the curse of losing to the Giants in the SB (which Denver also suffered from, for a while). Once you win a SB or two, it's easy to win another but once you start losing them, it's easy to lose the next one. This will be a big mental hurdle for the Pats, in this game; especially if they fall behind.
Finally, while not home field exactly, Seattle is very familiar with this venue (as it is in their division) and has played some big games there. The memory of those wins, along with the familiarity of the stadium, will give them a certain comfort level that NE won't have.
Good luck!
Interesting write-up but I believe that your analysis that Seattle has the psychological advantage in this game is pure speculation; that is hard to quantify. I'm not saying your wrong or right. However, there will be a home field advantage as SEA-PHX is a short hop for hawk fans so add 1.0 to Seattle's power ratings.
Id like to see how lopsided those stats were last year comparing denver v seattle and look how that turned out. 
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