Been a very profitable playoff run - know it's early but went ahead and made a few wagers. Right now, leanin to Pitt winning by 3-7 but haven't made up my mind ATS or on the O/U yet. Feel free to chip in with any thoughts/insights on the game - think the spread is close to dead-on & it's an intriguing match-up in alot of ways
13 pt teaser (25 units)
AZ +20
Pitt +6
Over 33.5
Under 59.5
Goin more with the probabilities here - feel like if AZ pulls it off, won't be by more than 3 or 4.
1st Qtr - over 9.5 (3.48 units to win 3)
Not much of a prop bettor, but like these for the SB:
A score in the 1st 7.5 mins? YES (5.07 units to win 3)
Total # of penalties for game - over 11.5 (12 units to win 10)
Total fumbles lost for game - over 1.5 (5 units to win 5.75)
GLA - let's end the season in a big way!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Playoffs (73%)
24-9
+197.6 units
Been a very profitable playoff run - know it's early but went ahead and made a few wagers. Right now, leanin to Pitt winning by 3-7 but haven't made up my mind ATS or on the O/U yet. Feel free to chip in with any thoughts/insights on the game - think the spread is close to dead-on & it's an intriguing match-up in alot of ways
13 pt teaser (25 units)
AZ +20
Pitt +6
Over 33.5
Under 59.5
Goin more with the probabilities here - feel like if AZ pulls it off, won't be by more than 3 or 4.
1st Qtr - over 9.5 (3.48 units to win 3)
Not much of a prop bettor, but like these for the SB:
A score in the 1st 7.5 mins? YES (5.07 units to win 3)
Total # of penalties for game - over 11.5 (12 units to win 10)
Total fumbles lost for game - over 1.5 (5 units to win 5.75)
Like Pitt for the W, but not by more than 14. As much as I like Warner & his superior core of receivers, because of his mobility (& how tough he is to bring down) and ability to make plays outa the pocket as well as the suspect AZ secondary with Hood & the rookie Cromartie, see Big Ben having the better game thru the air with no more than 1 INT. Looks like Ward will be in pretty good shape as well & that's huge for Pitt. Obviously, a big key will be how much time Warner (who reminds me a lil of Staubach with his accuracy, competiveness & toughness) gets to throw & if his guys can get good yardage after the catch on the quick outs & slants he'll need to use. My thought is he'll have mixed success & with Whisenhunt's game plan & guys like Fitz, Boldin & Breaston, AZ will put up some pts but not enough. Though their defensive stats were similar, Pitt has alot tougher D than Philly IMO & though the Cards D has picked up in the playoffs, they're nowhere near the level of Balty, espcially vs the pass. Think AZ needs at least a +2 in meaningful turnovers to pull it off & even that might not be enough. No rooting interest for me other than the $$, but should be a good one -
Score prediction:
Pitt 30
AZ 24
GL to all
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Added a 7pt teaser (10 units)
AZ +14
Over 39.5
Like Pitt for the W, but not by more than 14. As much as I like Warner & his superior core of receivers, because of his mobility (& how tough he is to bring down) and ability to make plays outa the pocket as well as the suspect AZ secondary with Hood & the rookie Cromartie, see Big Ben having the better game thru the air with no more than 1 INT. Looks like Ward will be in pretty good shape as well & that's huge for Pitt. Obviously, a big key will be how much time Warner (who reminds me a lil of Staubach with his accuracy, competiveness & toughness) gets to throw & if his guys can get good yardage after the catch on the quick outs & slants he'll need to use. My thought is he'll have mixed success & with Whisenhunt's game plan & guys like Fitz, Boldin & Breaston, AZ will put up some pts but not enough. Though their defensive stats were similar, Pitt has alot tougher D than Philly IMO & though the Cards D has picked up in the playoffs, they're nowhere near the level of Balty, espcially vs the pass. Think AZ needs at least a +2 in meaningful turnovers to pull it off & even that might not be enough. No rooting interest for me other than the $$, but should be a good one -
As great as Pitt's D is, not sure anyone can hold the Cards to under 21 in decent weather right now. In fact, sounds like the light rain predicted might just be the kind to give their receivers a bit of an edge. Like my chances & see a push at worst -
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Adding:
AZ tt over 20 (5 units)
As great as Pitt's D is, not sure anyone can hold the Cards to under 21 in decent weather right now. In fact, sounds like the light rain predicted might just be the kind to give their receivers a bit of an edge. Like my chances & see a push at worst -
Yep, I've got this thing teased up about every way possible CM. Just not that comfortable with either straight ATS or the O/U. Of the 2, lean the most to the over 46.5 though. Should be a great game but a tough one to analyze, partly because of the way the team & individual strengths & weaknesses match-up along with all the storylines/sidebars & the fact they didn't meet head2head this year. Not even totally confident in the 4tmr because of the really different ways it could go, but feel like it's the best probability. GL on Sunday
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Yep, I've got this thing teased up about every way possible CM. Just not that comfortable with either straight ATS or the O/U. Of the 2, lean the most to the over 46.5 though. Should be a great game but a tough one to analyze, partly because of the way the team & individual strengths & weaknesses match-up along with all the storylines/sidebars & the fact they didn't meet head2head this year. Not even totally confident in the 4tmr because of the really different ways it could go, but feel like it's the best probability. GL on Sunday
GLA - think we're in for a dramatic @ damn good game. Mucho respect for Pitt's D & Palomalu, but the Cards kind of passing attack (with a guy like Warner & his core of receivers) is exactly the kind that can give 'em major probs. Will it & by how much, who knows? To me, this is one you can break down & try to analyze to the nth degree & prob get no closer to the actual results than just goin by the basics & gut feel. Gonna be a good one & some good fuzzball late tonite from Melbourne - like Federer in that one
0
Adding a 7pt teaser (13 units to win 10)
AZ +13.5/Over 39.5
GLA - think we're in for a dramatic @ damn good game. Mucho respect for Pitt's D & Palomalu, but the Cards kind of passing attack (with a guy like Warner & his core of receivers) is exactly the kind that can give 'em major probs. Will it & by how much, who knows? To me, this is one you can break down & try to analyze to the nth degree & prob get no closer to the actual results than just goin by the basics & gut feel. Gonna be a good one & some good fuzzball late tonite from Melbourne - like Federer in that one
Hey bobby - long time, no see. How're pucks goin? Nice hit on your teaser
Damn, what a game!
13pt teaser
AZ +20/Pitt +6/Over 33.5/Under 59.5
10pt teasers
Pitt/AZ/Over 36.5
AZ/Over 36.5/Under 56.5
2tm teasers
Pitt -.5/Over 40
AZ +14/Over 39.5
AZ +14/Pitt even
AZ +13.5/Over 39.5
AZ tm tot over 20
1st Qtr over 9.5
8-1
+127.27 units
Prop bets:
Score in 1st 7.5 mins
# of penalties: over 11.5
Fumbles lost: over 1.5
Longest TD: over 44.5 yds
Longest FG made: over 43.5 yds
FG's made: over 3.5
3-3
+2.75 units
Playoffs & SB (excluding props)
32-10
+324.8 units
Incredible game - had almost everything. Heartbreaking for Cards & their fans but congrats to all their ATS backers
At least Pitt had to earn it on that last drive & you gotta give 'em credit. Was a great but up & down year of some of my best weeks ever & worst one's as well, but came out really well for the season. Congrats to all the winners & let's do it again next year!
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Hey bobby - long time, no see. How're pucks goin? Nice hit on your teaser
Damn, what a game!
13pt teaser
AZ +20/Pitt +6/Over 33.5/Under 59.5
10pt teasers
Pitt/AZ/Over 36.5
AZ/Over 36.5/Under 56.5
2tm teasers
Pitt -.5/Over 40
AZ +14/Over 39.5
AZ +14/Pitt even
AZ +13.5/Over 39.5
AZ tm tot over 20
1st Qtr over 9.5
8-1
+127.27 units
Prop bets:
Score in 1st 7.5 mins
# of penalties: over 11.5
Fumbles lost: over 1.5
Longest TD: over 44.5 yds
Longest FG made: over 43.5 yds
FG's made: over 3.5
3-3
+2.75 units
Playoffs & SB (excluding props)
32-10
+324.8 units
Incredible game - had almost everything. Heartbreaking for Cards & their fans but congrats to all their ATS backers
At least Pitt had to earn it on that last drive & you gotta give 'em credit. Was a great but up & down year of some of my best weeks ever & worst one's as well, but came out really well for the season. Congrats to all the winners & let's do it again next year!
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Good Luck Brother!
originally like pitts but thinking maybe teaser is the way to go as well. 
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