Posted:
#26
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Super Bowl XLVIII Write-up inside...
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by FadeThisXen:
Even with a 5-8-5 turnover margin, the Broncos have outscored their opponents and posted the same record as the Seahawks in the regular season and post season.
What does that tell us? It indicates that the Broncos can win, even if they lose the turnover battle.
If the turnover margin is equal, the Broncos cover easily.
If the Seahawks are +2 turnovers, I think they have a chance to cover.
In my opinion, it's going to take +3 turnovers for the Seahawks to win this game.
You're wagering that kind of money on the Seahawks to win +3 turnover margin?
Why do I say +3 on turnovers? Because the Denver Bronco's offense has proven that it can win decisively, if the margin is equal.
It's 3 losses came when it lost the turnover battle, and even in those occurences, it was never a blowout.
During the regular season they lost 3 games, where they were -1, -1, and -2, by an average of 5.3 points.
Post season, they've went -2 turnovers vs the Chargers and won by seven. The margin was equal vs the Patriots at zero, and that game didn't even seem close.
My point...Seahawks force 2+ turnovers you'll see them cover.
I think if you're going to bet, you're better off betting odds on Manning interceptions and Seahawk turnovers, rather than the point spread.
The Denver Bronco's offense is just too polished to think that the Seahawks can dominate them by more than a score. I just can't fathom it. It seems more like the longshot than the reality, at least in my perspective.
Even with a 5-8-5 turnover margin, the Broncos have outscored their opponents and posted the same record as the Seahawks in the regular season and post season.
What does that tell us? It indicates that the Broncos can win, even if they lose the turnover battle.
If the turnover margin is equal, the Broncos cover easily.
If the Seahawks are +2 turnovers, I think they have a chance to cover.
In my opinion, it's going to take +3 turnovers for the Seahawks to win this game.
You're wagering that kind of money on the Seahawks to win +3 turnover margin?
Why do I say +3 on turnovers? Because the Denver Bronco's offense has proven that it can win decisively, if the margin is equal.
It's 3 losses came when it lost the turnover battle, and even in those occurences, it was never a blowout.
During the regular season they lost 3 games, where they were -1, -1, and -2, by an average of 5.3 points.
Post season, they've went -2 turnovers vs the Chargers and won by seven. The margin was equal vs the Patriots at zero, and that game didn't even seem close.
My point...Seahawks force 2+ turnovers you'll see them cover.
I think if you're going to bet, you're better off betting odds on Manning interceptions and Seahawk turnovers, rather than the point spread.
The Denver Bronco's offense is just too polished to think that the Seahawks can dominate them by more than a score. I just can't fathom it. It seems more like the longshot than the reality, at least in my perspective.
So you say that turnovers don't matter to Denver because their offense compensates? Got it. Well, just to let you know in the three games they lost they lost the turnover battle in each of those games. Those three game were at Indy (3-1), @ New England (4-3), and vs. San Diego (1-0). That's a total of -5 take away vs. Giveaway in games they lost. Seems kind of significant. In two of the three they were only -1 and still lost. I promise you if they are -1 or more vs. Seattle they will not win. The only way Denver wins is if they are even or better, which we can see is highly unlikely. Let's recall that Seattle has only lost the turnover battle once all year, turns the ball over the least, and takes the ball away more than any team in the NFL.
In conclusion, it won't matter if Denver loses the battle, right?
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Posted:
#28
Also, what you don't add is in many cases these turn overs came at the ends if half some games where the outcome of a turnover did not effect the game. Example, in the divisional game vs. SD manning threw an int at the end of the 1st half resulting in no possibility of SD turning it into points. We cannot compare apples to oranges. The patriots and Chargers are far superior to the Seahawks. Again, opinions. Let's let it play out Sunday and see what happens.
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Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by YNOT_15:
Let's discuss the turnover battle that will be ever so important on this big stage of a game. In 47 Super Bowls only 4 times has the winner lost the turnover battle. This is the most convincing of all stats for me. It basically tells me that if you win the turnover battle you will win this game about 90% of the time. Let's look at both teams history in this category. While the broncos broke even on their take away to give away ratio, which was bottoms in the league, the Seahawks were tops at +20. The Broncos also turned the ball over at 1.6 times per game, again bottoms in the league. While the Seahawks turn it over the least in the NFL and take it away the most at 2.4 times per game. If we look at the post season these trends continue. Although Denver's defense has improved it's a bit misleading. The offense has burned clock and kept them off the field. Against the best defense in the league this will not be the case on Sunday. Through 2 play off games the broncos were a -1 in turn over to give away ratio, while the Seahawks were +2. Again, advantage Seattle. In fact the Broncos did not force 1 turnover through 8 quarters in the post season. Against the best team at protecting the football this trend should continue. Through the same 8 quarters the Seattle defense has forced 5 turnovers and forced in more fumbles that were recovered by their opponent. If Denver wins the turnover battle it would be a MIRACLE!!
Let's discuss the turnover battle that will be ever so important on this big stage of a game. In 47 Super Bowls only 4 times has the winner lost the turnover battle. This is the most convincing of all stats for me. It basically tells me that if you win the turnover battle you will win this game about 90% of the time. Let's look at both teams history in this category. While the broncos broke even on their take away to give away ratio, which was bottoms in the league, the Seahawks were tops at +20. The Broncos also turned the ball over at 1.6 times per game, again bottoms in the league. While the Seahawks turn it over the least in the NFL and take it away the most at 2.4 times per game. If we look at the post season these trends continue. Although Denver's defense has improved it's a bit misleading. The offense has burned clock and kept them off the field. Against the best defense in the league this will not be the case on Sunday. Through 2 play off games the broncos were a -1 in turn over to give away ratio, while the Seahawks were +2. Again, advantage Seattle. In fact the Broncos did not force 1 turnover through 8 quarters in the post season. Against the best team at protecting the football this trend should continue. Through the same 8 quarters the Seattle defense has forced 5 turnovers and forced in more fumbles that were recovered by their opponent. If Denver wins the turnover battle it would be a MIRACLE!!
Also, the point about winning the turnover battle is that 91% of SUPER BOWL TEAMS (not play off games or regular season) that won this battle won the Lombardi trophy. I'm saying if Seattle does what they do they have a very high probability of winning. That's it.
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Posted:
#30
No dude, the regular season losses the margins were -2 turnover vs Colts, -1 vs Chargers, -1 vs the Patriots. The average margin for loss was 5.3 points.
I'm saying turnovers are important, but for Seattle to come close to covering, they need to be +2 in the turnover margin.
You're talking regular season too which is another thing altogether, I prefer looking at stats in the post season where every game counts, when attempting to cap the Superbowl...be all end all.
Personally, I think Denver goes +1 in the turnover margin.
I think that puts them up 10+ points.
Truth be told, Seattle defense is all about the secondary. Against a strong pocket passer with experience and skill, that strength is slightly mitigated.
Seattle has the talent to cover, I'm not saying that.
What I'm saying is, if they don't force turnovers, the Broncos will run away with this game.
If Seattle can not run the ball and is forced to pass, I can't see them keeping up with Manning...and that's with the consideration that the Seahawks pass successfully.
Denver's run defense is solid and their pass defense is under rated.
If I was going to play a prop bet, I'd play it on a defensive player winning MVP - Champ Bailey, Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie, or Duke Ihenacho.
Broncos defense can hold competent offenses under 20 points, case in point Chargers and Patriots.
Yes, yes...Chargers aren't the most high powered offense, but they're decent. Phillip Rivers is a better passer than Russ Wilson. The Patriots are injured and hurting for weapons, but they still have Tom Brady to make it happen...and they couldn't make it happen.
What's my point. Denver takes care of the ball...they cover this easily...by 10 or more.
I'm saying turnovers are important, but for Seattle to come close to covering, they need to be +2 in the turnover margin.
You're talking regular season too which is another thing altogether, I prefer looking at stats in the post season where every game counts, when attempting to cap the Superbowl...be all end all.
Personally, I think Denver goes +1 in the turnover margin.
I think that puts them up 10+ points.
Truth be told, Seattle defense is all about the secondary. Against a strong pocket passer with experience and skill, that strength is slightly mitigated.
Seattle has the talent to cover, I'm not saying that.
What I'm saying is, if they don't force turnovers, the Broncos will run away with this game.
If Seattle can not run the ball and is forced to pass, I can't see them keeping up with Manning...and that's with the consideration that the Seahawks pass successfully.
Denver's run defense is solid and their pass defense is under rated.
If I was going to play a prop bet, I'd play it on a defensive player winning MVP - Champ Bailey, Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie, or Duke Ihenacho.
Broncos defense can hold competent offenses under 20 points, case in point Chargers and Patriots.
Yes, yes...Chargers aren't the most high powered offense, but they're decent. Phillip Rivers is a better passer than Russ Wilson. The Patriots are injured and hurting for weapons, but they still have Tom Brady to make it happen...and they couldn't make it happen.
What's my point. Denver takes care of the ball...they cover this easily...by 10 or more.
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Posted:
#33
THIS GAME WILL BE FIXED, U JUST NEED TO KNOW WHAT SIDE, THE SPREAD IS THERE TO FOOL YOU OF COURSE, YES SEAHAWKS OPENED AT -1.5, DENVER JUMPED TO -2.0, -2.5, WITH SUPPOSEABLY PUBLIC MONEY, DID ANYONE SEE THE BCS CHAMPIONSHIP FLA ST WAS FAVORITE -7.5 to -8 AND ON GAMEDAY THEY JUMPED TO -9 to -10 WITH PUBLIC LOVING AUBURN WITH THE SPREAD, THAT WHOLE GAME FLA STATE HAD NO CHANCE ON COVERING THE SPREAD , ALL IM SAYING IS THE NFL AND THE BOOKS KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING AND WILL U BE SUPRISED IF SEATTLE GETS THE BEST OF MANNING OR WILL U BE SUPRISED IF MANNING PICKS APART ANOTHER DEFENSE??DOES ANYONE REMEMBER DURING THE SEASON SEAHAWKS WERE SUSPENDED FOR USING PED'S AND GUESS WHAT THAT BOY RICHARD SHERMAN WAS ON THAT LIST AND NOW HE'S THE BEST PASS DEFENDER THAT EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT , EVEN HAD THAT COMMERCIAL PROBABLY MADE BEFORE THE 9ers GAME....GL TO YNOT BUT PEYTON MANNING WILL GET A 2nd RING JUST LIKE ELI AND THEY'LL BE HAVING THE NEXT COMMERCIALS
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Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by choiOi:
Defense wins championships and Seattle is the best defensive team in the NFL bla bla bla.... Let me ask this question..,then why are they getting points???
Defense wins championships and Seattle is the best defensive team in the NFL bla bla bla.... Let me ask this question..,then why are they getting points???
Why are they not the fav? Or were? If all the stats, #s, point to them winning...why are the books chalking them points?
lol alot u know about wagering. there is more than for every $2bet on den for every one on seattle. the line moves according to what the public bets. most ordinary ppl would have set this game at -4 for the broncos or more. seattle has been the most disrespected of the top tier teams at the betting window this whole season
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Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by choiOi:
Bol bro - I think you gonna cash well in this matchup.
If Seattle win this game, I believe Wilson will be spectacular and he will win the MVP IMO cause they will need that kind of game from him. He is prolly the biggest underdog on that team.
Bol bro - I think you gonna cash well in this matchup.
If Seattle win this game, I believe Wilson will be spectacular and he will win the MVP IMO cause they will need that kind of game from him. He is prolly the biggest underdog on that team.
Appreciate the support! Thanks!
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Posted:
#42
Quote Originally Posted by choiOi:
Defense wins championships and Seattle is the best defensive team in the NFL bla bla bla.... Let me ask this question..,then why are they getting points???
Defense wins championships and Seattle is the best defensive team in the NFL bla bla bla.... Let me ask this question..,then why are they getting points???
Why are they not the fav? Or were? If all the stats, #s, point to them winning...why are the books chalking them points?
Because the public is in love with Peyton Manning. The public wants to see him win…….so the public is rushing to bet with their hearts.
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Posted:
#43
Yes, the public is all over Manning. The sharp money will put the line at -1.5 Denver or less at the kick off. Regardless, we will see a great Super Bowl. Looking forward to it. Just can't see Denver flying home with the Lombardi trophy. If they do, so be it. I think "person" Sherman and the thugs from the Pacific Northwest are gonna bring this one home though!
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Posted:
#44
Don't know too much about gambling but why is Vegas letting the sharps bet the ML and giving Denver +. Also, remember the Vikings with Purple people eaters defense never won and neither did the Rams with the Fearsome Foursome. Also, the 2 QBs that lost to the Ravens and TB great defenses were Kerry Collins and Rick Gannon.
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Posted:
#46
Quote Originally Posted by choiOi:
Defense wins championships and Seattle is the best defensive team in the NFL bla bla bla.... Let me ask this question..,then why are they getting points???
Defense wins championships and Seattle is the best defensive team in the NFL bla bla bla.... Let me ask this question..,then why are they getting points???
Why are they not the fav? Or were? If all the stats, #s, point to them winning...why are the books chalking them points?
Why were the 90 Giants 7 pt dogs to the Bills ?
Why was 2002 Tampa 3 pt dogs to the Raiders ?
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BOL
Posted:
#49
[Quote: Origy Posted by YNOT_15] Yes, 11-11 or as Richard Sherman would say, "mediocre, mediocre...at best." He is however the greatest regular season QB of all time. [/Quote]
Sooo true! Best regular season QB
Seattle D win put Manning on the ground 
BTW i can't agree with you more on all your points. I like Manning as a human and feel he is a great QB BUT!! Numbers say seattle is the bet.
Go Hawks!!!
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Posted:
#50
LV opening the line at Seattle -1 seems strange. They had to know they could open the line at Denver -2.5 and still gotten a lot of Denver action. But they didn't.
It really seems like they were begging for Denver action. Almost like a home seller listing the price at a 10% discount, hoping to create a bidding frenzy.
Who knows how the game will turn out, but it seems like oddsmakers are taking a stance. They know they'll get unbalanced action toward Denver and they're perfectly fine with it. IMO
In short, I think LV is betting on Seattle. They'll probably be fine even if Denver wins -- but they'll make a lot more if Seattle wins.
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