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Supercontest leader 23-2 Week 6

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Prospect
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Posted: #26

I think tuco got all of it right. 5/5... 

 
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Posted: #27
Guys, that Tuco character is 27-3. If he wins the contest, he will likely finish around 65-68%, maybe 70% at the highest. And that's IF he wins. 

A 90% winning percentage is too high to maintain. Somebody post his picks on here next week, along with anyone else above 80%. They will be good fade material.
 
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Posted: #28

It's interesting the other guy who was 23-2 entering the week went 0-5 this week...you would think this Tuco dude is in for a correction pretty soon.

 
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Posted: #29

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by getchy_OLD_9067:

It's interesting the other guy who was 23-2 entering the week went 0-5 this week...you would think this Tuco dude is in for a correction pretty soon.


He's due for an immediate correction. I went 3-1 yesterday fading the most popular picks among the top 7 or 8 guys. Same strategy should work one more week.


 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:


He's due for an immediate correction. I went 3-1 yesterday fading the most popular picks among the top 7 or 8 guys. Same strategy should work one more week.



Interesting strategy doc...

I always tail not fade...
 
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Posted: #32
Midnight, there used to be a magazine called Pro Football Weekly. Every week about seven or eight guys would post their picks. Whenever one of them was trending above 65%, which sometimes happened early in the year, I would fade them and inevitably they would lose and trend back down between 50-55%. You could do the same thing after a week when one of them hit 13-3 or better. The next week would be 5-11 or 7-9. Old man percentage always wins in the end.
 
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Posted: #33
Hey Midnightprowl ! I saw that contest a week ago and I got on it however, this past week it looks like you posted it before the game but I for some reason or another could not see it ? Very upset as the first week I saw it,,I pounded the picks ! Please help me out and accept my friend request so you can shoot to me. 
 
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Posted: #34
Where can I find this Contest Boys??
 
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Posted: #35
CH Ballers set the record for highest winning percentage and most points and I think they finished with 64.5 / 85. The next two seasons , they didn’t even have that many combined.

Just goes to show how hard this game is but the fact they maintained their lucky streak for 17 weeks was amazing.
 
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Posted: #36
Regression to the mean is different for everyone.

The top capper in this contest, if he ends at 70% will still go 33-22 the rest of the contest..I will take that!

A roulette well has no skills, the ball bounces red or black. It’s 50-50

An expert capper has SKILL. His regression to the mean is not 50-50.

Great handicappers, because of skill hit 70-30...horrible handicappers hit 30-70....so when the regress to the mean it’s ThEIR mean...not 50-50...

For all we know, the top cappers regression maybe be 80% wins...

You also can’t take the most teams selected, as that includes all cappers, which is best and worst of all added together. So you are only getting average capper picks thre...who cares if 1000 cappers took Dallas....you only want to know if top 5 took Dallas...
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by FELLOFFAGAIN:

Where can I find this Contest Boys??


Google “ The Spread .com” .it’s under nfl...west Gates/Hilton contest menu option....

Weekly picks are put up Saturday nights about 7 p.m.
 
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Posted: #38

can you post this weeks picks midnight please thanks 

 
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Posted: #39

Somebody please post the picks of the top 9-10 guys tomorrow and we'll go over their picks as possible fade material. I'm guessing most will be on the Rams, Seabags, Jags and Packers, but that's just a guess. We will see.

 
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Posted: #40

Boys, the teams to fade this week are the 49ers, Bears and Jets.

 
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Posted: #41
TUCO - W27 L3 T0 LW 4-1
Week 7 Picks: BUF JAX SF CHI NYJ
THE KNACK - W23 L6 T1 LW 5-0
Week 7 Picks: IND LAR SF PHI NYJ
THE KILLSHOT TWO - W23 L6 T1 LW 4-1
Week 7 Picks: BUF MIN ATL WAS NYJ
JKCAL177177 - W23 L7 T0 LW 4-1
Week 7 Picks: NYG DET LAR CHI NYJ
SCHANNONSPORTSCIENCE - W23 L7 T0 LW 4-1
Week 7 Picks: IND GB TEN SEA DAL
PM INSIGHTS - W23 L7 T0 LW 4-1
Week 7 Picks: KC MIN SF BAL NO
 
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Posted: #42

Quote Originally Posted by Jayshaw85:

I think tuco got all of it right. 5/5...

He was wrong on Cleveland new_poop

 
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:

This is fade material, guys. Those winning percentages are simply unsustainable. Beware the Browns, Jags, Jets, and Titans.
Its funny you think its correlated.....like if the roulette wheel comes up black 10 times in a row then red is more likely.....Wrong.

Well said Train...hows it going buddy, long time we didnt bump heads here...BOL with your caps today and beyond!

23-2 is beyond amazing, and people do get hot like this, they must be having a ton of fun this NFL season...perhaps they are using AI in some way? In Canada, theres an AI program called Paulie who predicted 100% correctly every riding in the country during the last election...survival of the fittest AI 

Victory Belongs to the Most Tenacious
 
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Posted: #44

Thanks zags

 
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Posted: #45

If you can post again this weekends as well I tried but I can’t find thanks peace_5

 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:

Boys, the teams to fade this week are the 49ers, Bears and Jets.


I hope everyone cashed in.
 
 
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Posted: #47

Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:

Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:

Boys, the teams to fade this week are the 49ers, Bears and Jets.
I hope everyone cashed in.
i agree with you. I know how the law of averages work. I try to keep up win streaks as long as possible so the tricky part for you is when do you decide to jump in and fade. I'm kinda in a cold spell now and I planning a play on new England. I am due to win now

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