suuma's NFL divisional round - does the truth lie in the numbers ?

76-48 YTD (61.3%)

8-2 L2 weeks, let's ride that streak into the divisional round. I am super busy these weeks, so I won't have a write-up this time. Will just post a few stats regarding the Ravens game. I have futures on Ravens and Panthers, so maybe I am going to hedge a little bit. But that's what I've locked in and would play anyway:

Carolina Panthers +11 -112
Baltimore Ravens +7 -116
Dallas/Packers Over 52.5 -109

Futures:

Baltimore Ravens to win SB at 33-1 & 49-1
Carolina Panthers to win NFC at 22-1 (tailing LC)
Ravens/Panthers in SB at 436-1

I've been reading a lot of comments about how bad the Ravens defense and how good the Patriots defense is. Let's take a look at some defensive stats. Those are stats in which the time of possession and number of attempts are eliminated. I always use the efficiency on a single down/attempt to compare teams.


Just saying...


Good luck !

Something went wrong.

Keep on killing it.  Best of luck.  

Can you explain the Carolina pick? I know they can run, but Seattle will load the box and make Newton throw on the best secondary in football. I can't see the Panthers scoring double digits, and thus, not covering this spread, considering how well Wilson has been playing.

Good luck, Suuma. 

Dal vs GB Over 

Opposite of both. Great, I will be paying the bookie again this week. F@$&
Good luck man, you been money this year

I like that over a lot 

nice job with those stats suuma. great season once again and GL this weekend

Nice. which book did you get Ravens/Panthers SB @ 436-1? Already considering putting some money down on that prop @ my book but they have it at 200-1 odds... don't know when that prop came out but just caught wind of it a few days ago... when did you put that bet in?

 and I don't know if your prop has certain conditions  to be met but for mine it's

Ravens( SB winner)/Panthers(SB loser) - 200/1

Panthers(SB winner)/Ravens(SB loser) - 200/1

i'll probably lay a little bit of money on both sides because never going to know whats going to happen but putting a little more stock on the Ravens being the winners...that's my team. Indy and Carolina sounds interesting too at 200/1

for some reason I like all underdogs this week

good luck Suuma

also have a future bet riding on the Ravens too. got it at 30/1 last February...

should have jumped at it again when it was 40/1 at one point but didn't.. I think it was during the Ray Rice scandal and Pitta being done for the year. 

but spot on with your analysis Suuma. this should be a really close game. both teams match up well with each other and have similar stats in a lot of categories and I think it comes down to a field goal again. New England's defense is the best Joe Flacco will face in their last 5 matches. just like last week's game, the Ravens pass rush will need to bring their A-game if they want to come out of Foxboro alive.

Good luck, suuma. Don't like Carolina but the rest looks good.

GL Suuma

Gl this week Suuma

Up in the air on the Ravens vs. Pats. Not sure about the Carolina game. Rolling Denver and probably Dallas depending on sone research. Great season man!

GL this week Suuma

Solid. GL

BOL SUUMA

good luck this weekend

I see lot of people here on board with Carolina. Jump off ship before leave dock! We're looking 3 touchdown win by Seattle! Cam gonna need huge game from Greg Olsen in order to come close. With Seattle's mixed package backfield, Cam gonna be running sideline to sideline. Really how many road dog people think gonna win this weekend? We all know only room for one, and Colt have best chance at that one! Reason point spread so high for this game, because gonna be dominant victory...SITERBUN no fall for sucker bet!

I always try to cap the playoffs in a little different way than regular season games. I will not say anything about Seattle, because everyone should know their strengths. Just take away a major part of the season. The Panthers were 3-8-1 at one point. They have been dealing with big injury trouble and the worst o-line in the league filled with rookies and undrafted players. They adjusted. Even though the schedule of the last five games of Seattle was better than the one of the Panthers L5, just compare those two teams. Seahawks scored their opponents out by an average of 22-7, Panthers 28-12. Panthers rank 2nd in takeaways and 4th in sacks during that stretch, Seahawks rank 6th and 2nd. Panthers have improved significantly on defense. Their three rookie DBs adjusted so well. Bene Benwikere turned into a shutdown corner while Benwikere, Byndom and Boston overall play the adjusted schemes so well. According to Pro Football Focus, Benwikere was the second-best cornerback in the month of December. Both safeties were ranked in the top10 in December. And the Panthers played at NO, at ATL and against Mike Evans, so they didn't have a crappy passing schedule. The passing game of the Seahawks is average. Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart have been the best rushing tandem in the league lately and the Panthers have installed one heck of a run game with all players healthy. In the final five weeks of the regular season, Stewart rushed for the 2nd most yards per game and yards per carry. You have a very well improved o-line that got to know the schemes for the players and you have a rushing attack of Newton, Stewart, Williams, goal-line-Tolbert and Whittaker, all healthy. Season-long, the Seattle o-line ranks 23rd in pass-blocking efficiency while the Panthers one ranks 26th. But the difference: During the hot five-game streak, the Seahawks o-line didn't get any better while the Panthers o-line had the second-best o-line in the league. Strong defense, strong running game, average passing game. You have to equal teams here, considering the last five games from both. And one team is getting 11 points.

I expect a tough defensive game from both teams, so small things will likely decide the outcome of this game. The Seahawks d-line was lacking depth all season long and the pass-blocking efficiency of the Panthers has been 2nd best in the league lately. This could be a factor during the second half.

Seattle have a penalty rate of 0.42, 30th in the league. Panthers rank 7th with 0.30. Overall, Seattle has been the most-penalized team in the NFL. Could be a factor.

Will the Seahawks win by 17 points and make a clear statement ? Maybe. Will the Panthers have a shot at winning the game on the last drive ? Maybe. I will gladly take the hot dog getting 11 points who plays without pressure and who stayed in rhythm the last two weeks.

Thank you. I got these odds before the wild card round at bet365. Posted it last week. I just parlayed both teams to win their conference. Odds are 161-1 right now.

I respectfullly have to disagree here. I am a numbers guy. The Browns and Texans defenses definitely rank ahead of New England.