Posted:
#1
26-24 -1.75u
Lost with GB/CHI Over 46 on TNF.
I love four teaser sides this week:
SD +13: Since Rivers is at SD, they are 14-4 ATS as 6.5+ underdogs, 18-1 on 6pt-teasers as 6.5+ underdogs. They lost 16 of 208 games by 13 or more points - that's just 7.2%. It's a great spot for SD. They are still undervalued and this offense can hang on with everyone as +6.5 underdogs. Falcons coming off two tough games at DEN & SEA. SD are on rest.
SEA +8: Since they drafted Russell Wilson, they lost just 2 games out of 79 by 8+ points. Palmer looks sloppy this season, even against NYJ he had a lot of bad throws. They won't run wild on Seattle and I really doubt they win by 8+.
NE -2: I don't see a scenario in which the Pats don't win by atleast a FG against a Landry Jones led Football team.
DEN -2.5: Teams coming off TNF playing vs. a team coming off SNF, are 18-6 ATS. 23-1 on 6pt-teasers. I don't see a scenario in which Denver don't win by atleast a FG vs an Assweiler led Football team at HOME.
Locked in so far:
SD +13 / NE -2 -110
MIN -2.5 -110
This team covered 11 straight games and is going to cause tremendous matchup problems for this Eagles OL and their weak receiving corps. It's a square public play but I don't care. If Wentz and his OL beat the Vikes, I will accept a 1u loss.
NYG -3 +105
LA come into this gm having traveled 14,535 miles since wk3 while crossing each 3 & 8 time zones within one week. NYG have no other choice than executing their west coast precisely and finally put their receivers into positions to succeed. I expect a big game by Sheppard.
MIA O43.5 -110
Like said over and over again, the Fins offense falls and stands with their OL which is finally healthy. Two of Tannehill's great TD throws got called back for 3 points each so they could have scored 38 easily last week. BUF defense has played the WORST schedule of all teams at #32 in DVOA. I truly expect the Fins to score 27+ here and with that kind of defense, the Bills passing offense will find ways to score as well. Leaning MIA +3 as well and might add it.
Lions -1 -110
Skins come off four straight wins vs. passing offenses ranked 19, 20, 26 and 12. A big reason for the Eagles' struggles was RT rookie Vaitai who gave up 3 sacks to Kerrigan alone when I remember right. Lions are really clicking on offense. Doctson still out, Reed out, Desean only had one limited practice. I think this is the week to sell high on the Redskins. I like the Lions to win a 27-20 kind of game at home.
Leans:
JAX: Taking Blake Bortles off the blacklist for one week. OAK finally came back to earth vs KC last week. They could be 1-5 at this point, easily as SD could be 5-1. They travel across the country to play an early east coast game off playing two divisional home games. Good spot to fade them IMO. Jax surprisingly have
CIN: Bengals are 2-4/1-5 ATS, depending on which line you got in week one. Browns are 3-3 ATS. The Bengals play a 4-3 defense and like to get pressure by sending four. Browns played two such teams thus far and lost by a combined 23-63. Eifert back is a huge boost for this offense and I honestly don't see the Browns stopping them this week. Will wait for a confirmation though.
SD +6/+7: Honestly see Chargers winning straight up. Hayward vs. Julio is gonna be interesting to watch.
IND +3: Since 2001, road dogs off one-score loss (<=8) vs teams off one-score win are 106-62 ATS (63.1%). Pre-season line was Colts -3.5, this is now a 6.5-swing which isnt really justified IMO. Colts get Patrick Robinson back which is huge. If he and Davis take away TEN WRs in 2WR sets, they can stack the box. The Browns did an equal approach, they held Murray to 3.1 YPC.
Lost with GB/CHI Over 46 on TNF.
I love four teaser sides this week:
SD +13: Since Rivers is at SD, they are 14-4 ATS as 6.5+ underdogs, 18-1 on 6pt-teasers as 6.5+ underdogs. They lost 16 of 208 games by 13 or more points - that's just 7.2%. It's a great spot for SD. They are still undervalued and this offense can hang on with everyone as +6.5 underdogs. Falcons coming off two tough games at DEN & SEA. SD are on rest.
SEA +8: Since they drafted Russell Wilson, they lost just 2 games out of 79 by 8+ points. Palmer looks sloppy this season, even against NYJ he had a lot of bad throws. They won't run wild on Seattle and I really doubt they win by 8+.
NE -2: I don't see a scenario in which the Pats don't win by atleast a FG against a Landry Jones led Football team.
DEN -2.5: Teams coming off TNF playing vs. a team coming off SNF, are 18-6 ATS. 23-1 on 6pt-teasers. I don't see a scenario in which Denver don't win by atleast a FG vs an Assweiler led Football team at HOME.
Locked in so far:
SD +13 / NE -2 -110
MIN -2.5 -110
This team covered 11 straight games and is going to cause tremendous matchup problems for this Eagles OL and their weak receiving corps. It's a square public play but I don't care. If Wentz and his OL beat the Vikes, I will accept a 1u loss.
NYG -3 +105
LA come into this gm having traveled 14,535 miles since wk3 while crossing each 3 & 8 time zones within one week. NYG have no other choice than executing their west coast precisely and finally put their receivers into positions to succeed. I expect a big game by Sheppard.
MIA O43.5 -110
Like said over and over again, the Fins offense falls and stands with their OL which is finally healthy. Two of Tannehill's great TD throws got called back for 3 points each so they could have scored 38 easily last week. BUF defense has played the WORST schedule of all teams at #32 in DVOA. I truly expect the Fins to score 27+ here and with that kind of defense, the Bills passing offense will find ways to score as well. Leaning MIA +3 as well and might add it.
Lions -1 -110
Skins come off four straight wins vs. passing offenses ranked 19, 20, 26 and 12. A big reason for the Eagles' struggles was RT rookie Vaitai who gave up 3 sacks to Kerrigan alone when I remember right. Lions are really clicking on offense. Doctson still out, Reed out, Desean only had one limited practice. I think this is the week to sell high on the Redskins. I like the Lions to win a 27-20 kind of game at home.
Leans:
JAX: Taking Blake Bortles off the blacklist for one week. OAK finally came back to earth vs KC last week. They could be 1-5 at this point, easily as SD could be 5-1. They travel across the country to play an early east coast game off playing two divisional home games. Good spot to fade them IMO. Jax surprisingly have
CIN: Bengals are 2-4/1-5 ATS, depending on which line you got in week one. Browns are 3-3 ATS. The Bengals play a 4-3 defense and like to get pressure by sending four. Browns played two such teams thus far and lost by a combined 23-63. Eifert back is a huge boost for this offense and I honestly don't see the Browns stopping them this week. Will wait for a confirmation though.
SD +6/+7: Honestly see Chargers winning straight up. Hayward vs. Julio is gonna be interesting to watch.
IND +3: Since 2001, road dogs off one-score loss (<=8) vs teams off one-score win are 106-62 ATS (63.1%). Pre-season line was Colts -3.5, this is now a 6.5-swing which isnt really justified IMO. Colts get Patrick Robinson back which is huge. If he and Davis take away TEN WRs in 2WR sets, they can stack the box. The Browns did an equal approach, they held Murray to 3.1 YPC.
0
. And Smith was in the same boat with the Bengals, who wasted their first round pick on him in 2009, and the only rusher he was able to stop was someone trying to get in front of him at the buffet tables during Training Camps 
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