Posted:
#1
55-33 YTD
Went 2-1 yesterday. This morning I thought about the Niners pick and after what I saw from both teams prior to that game I have to admit that it was a very bad decision to take the Niners. Just another step in the long-life learning process. Now on to Sunday:
Washington Redskins +10 -113
I absolutely love this play. I will either bump it to a big play or pick the Redskins another time in a teaser. Why am I so convinced about the Skins AT Indianapolis ? Colt McCoy. I give him way more credit than RG3, he knows how to handle this offense. On the other side, the Indy defense is nothing to worry about. They are bottom ten material. The only reason their defense looked good at times is the way they defend third downs. In fact, they give up 5.8 yards per play (#25). Just keep one thing in mind: despite all the QB problems and turnovers the Redskins had during the entire season, they have the #7 offense in the league at 5.8 yards per play !!! #4 in passing and #10 in rushing !!! And now they turn into a QB who looked brilliant in the two games he participated in.
Indy offense against Redskins defense ? Well, you can't take away the Indy passing game through 60 minutes, that's probably impossible. But Washington have the #7 rushing D in the league which gives up just 3.8 YPC. They will take away the Indy run game and force Luck to beat them through the air all game long. More throws by Luck, more probability for turnovers. If the Skins force turnovers at the right times, they win this game straight up. Just remember their performance at Dallas on MNF. They matched up nice with Dallas and so do they with the Colts. Ten points are way too much. I call a Skins win at Indianapolis IF Colt McCoy doesn't throw more than one pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars + ??
Will wait on a better line before kickoff, because I expect the public to pound this line to 3.5 at least. Scalabrine wrote a lot about the Giants and there is nothing wrong, but how about them Jaguars? Jaguars played the TOUGHEST (#1) schedule in the league at 0.572. Of their 11 opponents, 5 teams are currently having a playoff spot and 9 out of these 11 (Indy twice) are at least in the playoff hunt within one or two wins. Despite that tough schedule, they built a defense that was very solid. A German mathematical power rating I use for capping that focuses on the efficiency on every single down, has the Jaguars defense ranked at #14. Their biggest weakness is their defensive INT rate at 1.3%. The league's average is at 2.5%, so you could expect regression to the mean statistically.
Another point: This is a home game for Jacksonville, and they still want to give their fans something back. In their four home games this season, they lost badly to Indy (like the Giants), had a decent shot at beating Pittsburgh, won against Cleveland and OUTGAINED the Dolphins by 51 yards. They put 377 yards on the Fins top-3 defense. Their pass rush is very good, they are averaging 3 sacks per game (#3 in the league).
I watched their game against the Cowboys at Wembley. The only reason the Jaguars didn't cover was because they showed a tackling performance I've never seen this season. It was so bad. Please go back and watch the Cowboys scoring plays. For example the Jags missed FOUR tackles on Dez Bryant on his 35 yard TD. 30 yards were after the catch. That game could have come down to the wire with a better tackling performance.
There is no single reason to take the Giants on the road IMO. I think this is the best remaining spot for the Jaguars to get their second win of the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 -107
This is a no brainer. Steelers only laying 4.5 points at home against the Saints ??? That looks like an early Christmas gift. Expected the line to be around 7. Despite all the injuries Pittsburgh is dealing with, the Saints are a bad road team, especially in open stadiums and they are missing their best receiver (Cooks). 56 degrees, little wind and a chance of rain - in favor of the Steelers. Saints defense is a big mess and Big Ben will expose them easily. Has the Steelers D been any better ? No, but Brees is playing in a open stadium that traditionally forces him to struggle. As crazy as it sounds, the Saints don't need this game LOL. They have three divisional games on deck and Atlanta will face GB, Pittsburgh and Arizona. I can't see anything else than a big Steelers win off their bye after two tough road games.
Don't know if I will add another play. Leaning TB and Arizona. Feel free to discuss
Hoping you all are having a great week with your families.
Went 2-1 yesterday. This morning I thought about the Niners pick and after what I saw from both teams prior to that game I have to admit that it was a very bad decision to take the Niners. Just another step in the long-life learning process. Now on to Sunday:
Washington Redskins +10 -113
I absolutely love this play. I will either bump it to a big play or pick the Redskins another time in a teaser. Why am I so convinced about the Skins AT Indianapolis ? Colt McCoy. I give him way more credit than RG3, he knows how to handle this offense. On the other side, the Indy defense is nothing to worry about. They are bottom ten material. The only reason their defense looked good at times is the way they defend third downs. In fact, they give up 5.8 yards per play (#25). Just keep one thing in mind: despite all the QB problems and turnovers the Redskins had during the entire season, they have the #7 offense in the league at 5.8 yards per play !!! #4 in passing and #10 in rushing !!! And now they turn into a QB who looked brilliant in the two games he participated in.
Indy offense against Redskins defense ? Well, you can't take away the Indy passing game through 60 minutes, that's probably impossible. But Washington have the #7 rushing D in the league which gives up just 3.8 YPC. They will take away the Indy run game and force Luck to beat them through the air all game long. More throws by Luck, more probability for turnovers. If the Skins force turnovers at the right times, they win this game straight up. Just remember their performance at Dallas on MNF. They matched up nice with Dallas and so do they with the Colts. Ten points are way too much. I call a Skins win at Indianapolis IF Colt McCoy doesn't throw more than one pick.
Jacksonville Jaguars + ??
Will wait on a better line before kickoff, because I expect the public to pound this line to 3.5 at least. Scalabrine wrote a lot about the Giants and there is nothing wrong, but how about them Jaguars? Jaguars played the TOUGHEST (#1) schedule in the league at 0.572. Of their 11 opponents, 5 teams are currently having a playoff spot and 9 out of these 11 (Indy twice) are at least in the playoff hunt within one or two wins. Despite that tough schedule, they built a defense that was very solid. A German mathematical power rating I use for capping that focuses on the efficiency on every single down, has the Jaguars defense ranked at #14. Their biggest weakness is their defensive INT rate at 1.3%. The league's average is at 2.5%, so you could expect regression to the mean statistically.
Another point: This is a home game for Jacksonville, and they still want to give their fans something back. In their four home games this season, they lost badly to Indy (like the Giants), had a decent shot at beating Pittsburgh, won against Cleveland and OUTGAINED the Dolphins by 51 yards. They put 377 yards on the Fins top-3 defense. Their pass rush is very good, they are averaging 3 sacks per game (#3 in the league).
I watched their game against the Cowboys at Wembley. The only reason the Jaguars didn't cover was because they showed a tackling performance I've never seen this season. It was so bad. Please go back and watch the Cowboys scoring plays. For example the Jags missed FOUR tackles on Dez Bryant on his 35 yard TD. 30 yards were after the catch. That game could have come down to the wire with a better tackling performance.
There is no single reason to take the Giants on the road IMO. I think this is the best remaining spot for the Jaguars to get their second win of the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5 -107
This is a no brainer. Steelers only laying 4.5 points at home against the Saints ??? That looks like an early Christmas gift. Expected the line to be around 7. Despite all the injuries Pittsburgh is dealing with, the Saints are a bad road team, especially in open stadiums and they are missing their best receiver (Cooks). 56 degrees, little wind and a chance of rain - in favor of the Steelers. Saints defense is a big mess and Big Ben will expose them easily. Has the Steelers D been any better ? No, but Brees is playing in a open stadium that traditionally forces him to struggle. As crazy as it sounds, the Saints don't need this game LOL. They have three divisional games on deck and Atlanta will face GB, Pittsburgh and Arizona. I can't see anything else than a big Steelers win off their bye after two tough road games.
Don't know if I will add another play. Leaning TB and Arizona. Feel free to discuss
Hoping you all are having a great week with your families.
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