Posted:
#1
As you know, everything I do is by statistics and probability. Last week was great as I went 9-2 on posted picks and 13-4 overall (including halftime bets). Biggest win of the week was Indy +350. I'm now up 6 units on the season so not killing it but up and thats all that matters. Anyway, here are this weeks projected scores.
STL over SF 12-7. Taking STL and the under small just to have some action tonight.
Cinci over CLE 23-14. With Cinci covering 5 its a fair play but there is much better out there. The O/U is 42.5 so not thrilled there either.
Indy over Jax 24-3. Indy is giving 9 so still covers by a dozen. I love this pick. The O/U is 43 so the U looks solid too.
Chicago over DET 31-29. Looks to be a shootout with quite a few TOs. Chicago is getting 3 so not thrilled with the side but the O/U is only 47.5. That would be a cover of 12.5, liking this too.
AZ/TB i get at 10-10. I don't like ANYTHING about this game.
SEA over HOU 39-17. Vegas thinks its close and I think wants heavy mony on HOU as Sea is only -3. That's a 19 point cover that I'll take to the bank! Even the O/U looks good at 42. Take the O and cover by 14.
KC over NYG 33-3. Yes, I know this isn't last week but the G-Men are terrible and KC is a big Surprise. KC is -5 so thats a 25 point cover. The O/U is 44 which makes for a fair U saying youd be safe by 8 but I'll stay away from the U on this. That's only a couple decent Eli drives.
Min over Pit 18-13. Off the board right now so I don't have any say. Early line had Min +1.5 so still a six point cover if you have to play this one.
Den over Phl 45-26. Shootout city (surprised?) Den -11 is a lot but they'd still cover by 8. The O/U is more attractive at 58. I get 71 so thats a 13 point cover. Reminds me of NCAAFB.
Oak over Was 19-13. This game is gonna be a trap if there ever was one. Its off the boards now (probably because LV is trying to figure out how to get WAS money) so I have no play.
Dal over SD 31-22. Big D is -2 so thats a 7 point cover and the O/U at 47 goes over by 6. Fair plays but nothing I'm racing toward.
NYJ over Ten 19-18. Jets are getting 4 but this game stinks from high heaven. The O/U is 39 which means a 2 point U. YUCK, YUCK, YUCK.
NE over ATL 26-17 but off the board right now.
NO over Miami 28-25. NO is giving 7 which is too much. I think LV is setting this line for chasers this weekend. By my numbers, Unders and dogs look to do OK this week and with the public all playing Favs, LV may cash huge on the NO money. If I play this, its Miami. The O/U is also tight at 48. Thats an over of 5.
Like I said, this is all mathematical so hating on me is pointless. I don't care who wins the game, just that I win the bet.
Good Luck!
STL over SF 12-7. Taking STL and the under small just to have some action tonight.
Cinci over CLE 23-14. With Cinci covering 5 its a fair play but there is much better out there. The O/U is 42.5 so not thrilled there either.
Indy over Jax 24-3. Indy is giving 9 so still covers by a dozen. I love this pick. The O/U is 43 so the U looks solid too.
Chicago over DET 31-29. Looks to be a shootout with quite a few TOs. Chicago is getting 3 so not thrilled with the side but the O/U is only 47.5. That would be a cover of 12.5, liking this too.
AZ/TB i get at 10-10. I don't like ANYTHING about this game.
SEA over HOU 39-17. Vegas thinks its close and I think wants heavy mony on HOU as Sea is only -3. That's a 19 point cover that I'll take to the bank! Even the O/U looks good at 42. Take the O and cover by 14.
KC over NYG 33-3. Yes, I know this isn't last week but the G-Men are terrible and KC is a big Surprise. KC is -5 so thats a 25 point cover. The O/U is 44 which makes for a fair U saying youd be safe by 8 but I'll stay away from the U on this. That's only a couple decent Eli drives.
Min over Pit 18-13. Off the board right now so I don't have any say. Early line had Min +1.5 so still a six point cover if you have to play this one.
Den over Phl 45-26. Shootout city (surprised?) Den -11 is a lot but they'd still cover by 8. The O/U is more attractive at 58. I get 71 so thats a 13 point cover. Reminds me of NCAAFB.
Oak over Was 19-13. This game is gonna be a trap if there ever was one. Its off the boards now (probably because LV is trying to figure out how to get WAS money) so I have no play.
Dal over SD 31-22. Big D is -2 so thats a 7 point cover and the O/U at 47 goes over by 6. Fair plays but nothing I'm racing toward.
NYJ over Ten 19-18. Jets are getting 4 but this game stinks from high heaven. The O/U is 39 which means a 2 point U. YUCK, YUCK, YUCK.
NE over ATL 26-17 but off the board right now.
NO over Miami 28-25. NO is giving 7 which is too much. I think LV is setting this line for chasers this weekend. By my numbers, Unders and dogs look to do OK this week and with the public all playing Favs, LV may cash huge on the NO money. If I play this, its Miami. The O/U is also tight at 48. Thats an over of 5.
Like I said, this is all mathematical so hating on me is pointless. I don't care who wins the game, just that I win the bet.
Good Luck!
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