Posted:
#1
OK, so I was right to lay off last nights game. I would've hit the over but not STL. Too many turnovers. I'm not bragging by any means. I just run the stats and this is what I get for this weeks scores. The lines are obviously early so watch the movement.
BUF/CLE score of 17-17. Yea, a tie and CLE is -4 so that would mean a BUF cover. Not interested. The O/U is 41.5 so that would be under by 7.5 so that may be the only play if you have to have action on Thursday
JAX/STL score of 9-3. YUCK! Jax is getting 11.5 so they would cover by 5.5 and again, not interested. The O/U is 42 and THAT may be worth playing the U as I see it under by 30.
KC/TEN score of 32-25. KC is giving 4 so again a tight one as KC should cover by 4. The O/U is 39.5 and that looks attractive as the O should hit by 17.5
PHL/NYG score of 17-6. I know, everyone expects a shootout. The NYG giving 3 makes no sense to me as I see PHL covering by 14. The O/U is 54 so this could be a huge under play going under by 21
BAL/MIA score of 22-21. Baltimore is getting 3 so they'd cover by 4 but too tight for my taste. The O/U is 43.5 which is about spot on.
SEA/IND score of 32-31 with Indy getting 3 at home means they'd cover by 2...Way too tight but THIS game is a shootout and with the O/U of 43.5, the O should cover by 19.5
DET/GB score of 32-30. Detroit getting 7 on the road and winning straight up (that's what the numbers say...I know, never bet against GB at home) so DET would cover by 9. The O/U is 52 and looks to go over by 10.
NE/CIN score of 25-18. I know Cinci is at home but I don't see why they are the -1 FAV. Take NE both on spread and ML here. The O/U is 44.5 which is too close for my taste.
CAR/AZ score of 27-13. CAR is giving 2 but should still cover by 12. The O/U is 42.5 which is too close to play again.
DEN/DAL score of 47-31. Denver is giving 8.5 on thee road but Manning is too much right now and still covers by 7.5. The O/U is a joke even at 55.5 as the scoreboard here is gonna look like a pinball machine and goes over by 22.5
HOU/SF score of 18-18. Another tie by the numbers and HOU getting 7. Might take Houston here. The O/U is 42.5 so only 5.5 under.
SD/OAK score of 23-17. The Raiders are getting 4 so that only makes it a 2 point SD cover. Too tight. The O/U is on too at 44.5 so only 3.5 under.
NYJ/ATL score of 18-16. Withe Jets getting 10 they would cover here and the O/U is 43.5 so under by 8.5.
I know some of these look weird and I agree but I don't think about it. I just bet the lines that seem to be the most wrong. I'll watch the movement this week so these aren't final picks but right now I like:
JAX/STL under 42
KC/TEN over 39.5
Philly +3
SEA/IND over 43.5
DET/GB over 52
NO pick
NO/CHC over 48
DEN/DAL over 55.5
CAR -2
Thats nine games. That should be enough, right?
BUF/CLE score of 17-17. Yea, a tie and CLE is -4 so that would mean a BUF cover. Not interested. The O/U is 41.5 so that would be under by 7.5 so that may be the only play if you have to have action on Thursday
JAX/STL score of 9-3. YUCK! Jax is getting 11.5 so they would cover by 5.5 and again, not interested. The O/U is 42 and THAT may be worth playing the U as I see it under by 30.
KC/TEN score of 32-25. KC is giving 4 so again a tight one as KC should cover by 4. The O/U is 39.5 and that looks attractive as the O should hit by 17.5
PHL/NYG score of 17-6. I know, everyone expects a shootout. The NYG giving 3 makes no sense to me as I see PHL covering by 14. The O/U is 54 so this could be a huge under play going under by 21
BAL/MIA score of 22-21. Baltimore is getting 3 so they'd cover by 4 but too tight for my taste. The O/U is 43.5 which is about spot on.
SEA/IND score of 32-31 with Indy getting 3 at home means they'd cover by 2...Way too tight but THIS game is a shootout and with the O/U of 43.5, the O should cover by 19.5
DET/GB score of 32-30. Detroit getting 7 on the road and winning straight up (that's what the numbers say...I know, never bet against GB at home) so DET would cover by 9. The O/U is 52 and looks to go over by 10.
NE/CIN score of 25-18. I know Cinci is at home but I don't see why they are the -1 FAV. Take NE both on spread and ML here. The O/U is 44.5 which is too close for my taste.
CAR/AZ score of 27-13. CAR is giving 2 but should still cover by 12. The O/U is 42.5 which is too close to play again.
DEN/DAL score of 47-31. Denver is giving 8.5 on thee road but Manning is too much right now and still covers by 7.5. The O/U is a joke even at 55.5 as the scoreboard here is gonna look like a pinball machine and goes over by 22.5
HOU/SF score of 18-18. Another tie by the numbers and HOU getting 7. Might take Houston here. The O/U is 42.5 so only 5.5 under.
SD/OAK score of 23-17. The Raiders are getting 4 so that only makes it a 2 point SD cover. Too tight. The O/U is on too at 44.5 so only 3.5 under.
NYJ/ATL score of 18-16. Withe Jets getting 10 they would cover here and the O/U is 43.5 so under by 8.5.
I know some of these look weird and I agree but I don't think about it. I just bet the lines that seem to be the most wrong. I'll watch the movement this week so these aren't final picks but right now I like:
JAX/STL under 42
KC/TEN over 39.5
Philly +3
SEA/IND over 43.5
DET/GB over 52
NO pick
NO/CHC over 48
DEN/DAL over 55.5
CAR -2
Thats nine games. That should be enough, right?
0
Hot Forum Topics
