Over the past 35 games, system picks are at 60% (21-14). I hemmed and hawed most of the early and middle part of the season until I finally committed to this system which is based solidly on over 2500 past games. If I had not gone against the system all year, I would have been top 20 in the LVH Super Contest, but that is the cost of learning and hindsight is always 20/20, but the future looks bright.
What are your thoughts about what the program produced this final week of the NFL regular season (also my super contest picks)?
Jaguars +6
Chiefs -6.5
Seahawks +6.5
Colts -2.5
Redskins +3.5
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Over the past 35 games, system picks are at 60% (21-14). I hemmed and hawed most of the early and middle part of the season until I finally committed to this system which is based solidly on over 2500 past games. If I had not gone against the system all year, I would have been top 20 in the LVH Super Contest, but that is the cost of learning and hindsight is always 20/20, but the future looks bright.
What are your thoughts about what the program produced this final week of the NFL regular season (also my super contest picks)?
What is this system? I don't understand people posting all this stuff about "system plays" and then not explaining what their system is. There does seem to be any logic to these types of posts. I thought the point of making these posts is to help your fellow betters? I could do a similar post and make up some record and say it is a system play, and my system could be I flipped a coin.
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What is this system? I don't understand people posting all this stuff about "system plays" and then not explaining what their system is. There does seem to be any logic to these types of posts. I thought the point of making these posts is to help your fellow betters? I could do a similar post and make up some record and say it is a system play, and my system could be I flipped a coin.
What is this system? I don't understand people posting all this stuff about "system plays" and then not explaining what their system is. There does seem to be any logic to these types of posts. I thought the point of making these posts is to help your fellow betters? I could do a similar post and make up some record and say it is a system play, and my system could be I flipped a coin.
Woodys, if you flipped a coin and made 600 picks, you would be right 50.2% of the time and nobody would care. A,system is,only as good as the results it produces. Posting my picks publicly is risky, but it's the only way that I can demonstrate whether my system works at defeating that elusive coin flip. It also allows others to either copy my picks or use them as another factor in making their own picks, so it benefits others if it is any good. So far it is 60% right over the past 30 picks but that sample,size,is,too small to get excited yet. But nobody is going to reveal the inner workings of any system they worked so hard to build. Why should they? If what I built is great, like I am fairly sure it is because I tested it on 2500 plus past games, why would I simply hand over the years of work to hundreds of others,in,a,public forum. You shouldn't either. Best of luck!
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Quote Originally Posted by woodsywins1616:
What is this system? I don't understand people posting all this stuff about "system plays" and then not explaining what their system is. There does seem to be any logic to these types of posts. I thought the point of making these posts is to help your fellow betters? I could do a similar post and make up some record and say it is a system play, and my system could be I flipped a coin.
Woodys, if you flipped a coin and made 600 picks, you would be right 50.2% of the time and nobody would care. A,system is,only as good as the results it produces. Posting my picks publicly is risky, but it's the only way that I can demonstrate whether my system works at defeating that elusive coin flip. It also allows others to either copy my picks or use them as another factor in making their own picks, so it benefits others if it is any good. So far it is 60% right over the past 30 picks but that sample,size,is,too small to get excited yet. But nobody is going to reveal the inner workings of any system they worked so hard to build. Why should they? If what I built is great, like I am fairly sure it is because I tested it on 2500 plus past games, why would I simply hand over the years of work to hundreds of others,in,a,public forum. You shouldn't either. Best of luck!
The only problem you could have at these games is motivation. Which team will rest some players in the 2nd half?
Either way good luck
Totally agree Suuma! However, what keeps me faithful is that in past week 17 picks in studying my system, I have actually done better than usual, so I stick with it despite the inherent illogic of it!
Good luck this week!
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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:
The only problem you could have at these games is motivation. Which team will rest some players in the 2nd half?
Either way good luck
Totally agree Suuma! However, what keeps me faithful is that in past week 17 picks in studying my system, I have actually done better than usual, so I stick with it despite the inherent illogic of it!
In fact Woodys, this is what I love so much about sports and capping contests. It is brutally honest and picking winners over time will eliminate 98% of the phonies. You can't wiggle away if you are wrong, and if you have a rare winning ability, it will also shine as cream always rises to the top :-)
Try to find that honesty in other areas of life!!
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In fact Woodys, this is what I love so much about sports and capping contests. It is brutally honest and picking winners over time will eliminate 98% of the phonies. You can't wiggle away if you are wrong, and if you have a rare winning ability, it will also shine as cream always rises to the top :-)
Does your system take into account what week 17 games mean to each team? Even if it is some super complex algorithm that you have created that takes into account any and all previous Off/Def stats/field conditions/weather/whatever else you might have thrown in there, how will those stats account for a team like Washington this week who have nothing to play for and are locked into the 4 seed.
I see Cousins getting on the field, completing one pass to Jordan Reid (giving him the team record for most receptions by a tight end), maybe playing a quarter, and then bowing out. They have no reason to risk anyone getting injured.
KC does have something to play for as they can potentially still win their division, but only if Denver loses. What happens if DEN is up by 30 on SD and KC is up by a TD late in the game. Do they go all out to protect that meaningless lead, or do they also pull guys?
I see 4 games that you have picked that have those sorts of possibilities and I would avoid all 4 unless your system has somehow taken them into account. (SEA if Carolina is losing to TB and Arizona goes all out for the 1 seed, WAS and KC as shown above and JAC if HOU is super motivated and wants to leave no doubt about their postseason appearance).
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Does your system take into account what week 17 games mean to each team? Even if it is some super complex algorithm that you have created that takes into account any and all previous Off/Def stats/field conditions/weather/whatever else you might have thrown in there, how will those stats account for a team like Washington this week who have nothing to play for and are locked into the 4 seed.
I see Cousins getting on the field, completing one pass to Jordan Reid (giving him the team record for most receptions by a tight end), maybe playing a quarter, and then bowing out. They have no reason to risk anyone getting injured.
KC does have something to play for as they can potentially still win their division, but only if Denver loses. What happens if DEN is up by 30 on SD and KC is up by a TD late in the game. Do they go all out to protect that meaningless lead, or do they also pull guys?
I see 4 games that you have picked that have those sorts of possibilities and I would avoid all 4 unless your system has somehow taken them into account. (SEA if Carolina is losing to TB and Arizona goes all out for the 1 seed, WAS and KC as shown above and JAC if HOU is super motivated and wants to leave no doubt about their postseason appearance).
Does your system take into account what week 17 games mean to each team? Even if it is some super complex algorithm that you have created that takes into account any and all previous Off/Def stats/field conditions/weather/whatever else you might have thrown in there, how will those stats account for a team like Washington this week who have nothing to play for and are locked into the 4 seed.
I see Cousins getting on the field, completing one pass to Jordan Reid (giving him the team record for most receptions by a tight end), maybe playing a quarter, and then bowing out. They have no reason to risk anyone getting injured.
KC does have something to play for as they can potentially still win their division, but only if Denver loses. What happens if DEN is up by 30 on SD and KC is up by a TD late in the game. Do they go all out to protect that meaningless lead, or do they also pull guys?
I see 4 games that you have picked that have those sorts of possibilities and I would avoid all 4 unless your system has somehow taken them into account. (SEA if Carolina is losing to TB and Arizona goes all out for the 1 seed, WAS and KC as shown above and JAC if HOU is super motivated and wants to leave no doubt about their postseason appearance).
Great questions and the simple answer is no ... but keep in mind the Vegas linesmakers are not dumb. Don't you think they've kind of already done the best they can with those types of scenarios in trying to get equal,money,on,each side, or at least closer to equal money. We,shall,see how,those 4 questionable picks,do, but since all I have,to do is pick above or below the line,already established by the contest linemaker, I've still got a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Sometimes overthinking leads to more trouble than keeping it simple. My bottom line has always been overall percentage of success over time against the spread. If I could have found,a,way to add situational intuition to the mix and improve that success rate, I would have, but it seems wheneverer I try to do that I only sabotage the beatiful system I have already built. Time will show if I need to go back to the drawing board, or just ride the,success, but give me 100 games minimum before you even begin to either praise or criticize this,monster which currently stands at 21-14.
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Quote Originally Posted by Humchucker:
Does your system take into account what week 17 games mean to each team? Even if it is some super complex algorithm that you have created that takes into account any and all previous Off/Def stats/field conditions/weather/whatever else you might have thrown in there, how will those stats account for a team like Washington this week who have nothing to play for and are locked into the 4 seed.
I see Cousins getting on the field, completing one pass to Jordan Reid (giving him the team record for most receptions by a tight end), maybe playing a quarter, and then bowing out. They have no reason to risk anyone getting injured.
KC does have something to play for as they can potentially still win their division, but only if Denver loses. What happens if DEN is up by 30 on SD and KC is up by a TD late in the game. Do they go all out to protect that meaningless lead, or do they also pull guys?
I see 4 games that you have picked that have those sorts of possibilities and I would avoid all 4 unless your system has somehow taken them into account. (SEA if Carolina is losing to TB and Arizona goes all out for the 1 seed, WAS and KC as shown above and JAC if HOU is super motivated and wants to leave no doubt about their postseason appearance).
Great questions and the simple answer is no ... but keep in mind the Vegas linesmakers are not dumb. Don't you think they've kind of already done the best they can with those types of scenarios in trying to get equal,money,on,each side, or at least closer to equal money. We,shall,see how,those 4 questionable picks,do, but since all I have,to do is pick above or below the line,already established by the contest linemaker, I've still got a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Sometimes overthinking leads to more trouble than keeping it simple. My bottom line has always been overall percentage of success over time against the spread. If I could have found,a,way to add situational intuition to the mix and improve that success rate, I would have, but it seems wheneverer I try to do that I only sabotage the beatiful system I have already built. Time will show if I need to go back to the drawing board, or just ride the,success, but give me 100 games minimum before you even begin to either praise or criticize this,monster which currently stands at 21-14.
[/Quote]Great questions and the simple answer is no ... but keep in mind the Vegas linesmakers are not dumb. Don't you think they've kind of already done the best they can with those types of scenarios in trying to get equal,money,on,each side, or at least closer to equal money. We,shall,see how,those 4 questionable picks,do, but since all I have,to do is pick above or below the line,already established by the contest linemaker, I've still got a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Sometimes overthinking leads to more trouble than keeping it simple. My bottom line has always been overall percentage of success over time against the spread. If I could have found,a,way to add situational intuition to the mix and improve that success rate, I would have, but it seems wheneverer I try to do that I only sabotage the beatiful system I have already built. Time will show if I need to go back to the drawing board, or just ride the,success, but give me 100 games minimum before you even begin to either praise or criticize this,monster which currently stands at 21-14.[/Quote]
Fair enough, thanks for your response! Good luck with all your picks today! I agree that sometimes over-thinking things can lead to flip-flopping and ignoring your system or stats so good for you for sticking with it.
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[/Quote]Great questions and the simple answer is no ... but keep in mind the Vegas linesmakers are not dumb. Don't you think they've kind of already done the best they can with those types of scenarios in trying to get equal,money,on,each side, or at least closer to equal money. We,shall,see how,those 4 questionable picks,do, but since all I have,to do is pick above or below the line,already established by the contest linemaker, I've still got a better than 50% chance of getting it right. Sometimes overthinking leads to more trouble than keeping it simple. My bottom line has always been overall percentage of success over time against the spread. If I could have found,a,way to add situational intuition to the mix and improve that success rate, I would have, but it seems wheneverer I try to do that I only sabotage the beatiful system I have already built. Time will show if I need to go back to the drawing board, or just ride the,success, but give me 100 games minimum before you even begin to either praise or criticize this,monster which currently stands at 21-14.[/Quote]
Fair enough, thanks for your response! Good luck with all your picks today! I agree that sometimes over-thinking things can lead to flip-flopping and ignoring your system or stats so good for you for sticking with it.
[Quote: Fair enough, thanks for your response! Good luck with all your picks today! I agree that sometimes over-thinking things can lead to flip-flopping and ignoring your system or stats so good for you for sticking with it. [/Quote]
Thanks Hum. System is 2-1 so far today, so 23-15 overall (60.52%) .... it got Redskins and Colts correct and missed on Jax. Let's see if it gets Hawks and Chiefs right :-) ... good luck to you too!
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[Quote: Fair enough, thanks for your response! Good luck with all your picks today! I agree that sometimes over-thinking things can lead to flip-flopping and ignoring your system or stats so good for you for sticking with it. [/Quote]
Thanks Hum. System is 2-1 so far today, so 23-15 overall (60.52%) .... it got Redskins and Colts correct and missed on Jax. Let's see if it gets Hawks and Chiefs right :-) ... good luck to you too!
HAppy to report that nothing this year indicates that my system for picking teams is not a winner. While it's way too early statistically to call this a slam dunk (that will take another couple years of consistent public postings), the 24-16 success rate of 60% over the past 40 is a promising start.
This,week the system just missed going 4-1 as Kansas City won by 6 when I had them at -6.5, but 3-2 is fine and mirrors the overall rate of .60 success so far.
I shall continue next year, posting 75 games beginning in week 3 and continuing through week 17. There is not enough reliable data available to pick teams in weeks one and two in my system, so I will just exclude that. By the end of next season we will have examined the system over 115 games and by the third year that number will be 190, giving us much more statistical power to reach conclusions, and either award this system as a legitimate force to be reckoned with, or a cartoon character :-) .... between you and me, I'm pretty confident Mickey Mouse's job is not in jeapordy and we will all be excited about this new valid creation.
Enjoy the playoffs and Super Bowl and I'll be back next year!
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HAppy to report that nothing this year indicates that my system for picking teams is not a winner. While it's way too early statistically to call this a slam dunk (that will take another couple years of consistent public postings), the 24-16 success rate of 60% over the past 40 is a promising start.
This,week the system just missed going 4-1 as Kansas City won by 6 when I had them at -6.5, but 3-2 is fine and mirrors the overall rate of .60 success so far.
I shall continue next year, posting 75 games beginning in week 3 and continuing through week 17. There is not enough reliable data available to pick teams in weeks one and two in my system, so I will just exclude that. By the end of next season we will have examined the system over 115 games and by the third year that number will be 190, giving us much more statistical power to reach conclusions, and either award this system as a legitimate force to be reckoned with, or a cartoon character :-) .... between you and me, I'm pretty confident Mickey Mouse's job is not in jeapordy and we will all be excited about this new valid creation.
Enjoy the playoffs and Super Bowl and I'll be back next year!
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