Systems / Angles & Trends NFL Sunday

Teams are 3-17 ATS Since 2012 as Rdog off win as HD  ( K.C. )
Teams are 3-20-1 ATS Since 2011 dog off win as HD ( K.C. )
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Phil is 1-13 ATS Since 2011 H off loss
Phil is 1-10 ATS Since 2010 H off gm as dog
Phil is 1-10 ATS Since 2011 as HF off loss
Phil is 3-14 ATS Since 2010 as Fav off loss
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Denver is 0-8 ATS as FAV when their DPS was negative L 2 gms
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Wash is 0-11 ATS as a 5 pt plus dog vs opp off a bye
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Ten is 0-8 ATS Since 2011 after a gm on the road
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Pit is 0-10 ATS as a RF by at least 6 pts
Pit is 0-7 ATS Since 2012 as a RF off a Home gm
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Atl is 11-1-1 ATS as a RDog off loss on road
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Jax is 0-9 ATS vs a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yds per carry on the season
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N.E. is 0-12 ATS at H vs opp off a bye
N.E. is 18-0 ATS off a loss , not laying more than 3 pts
Teams are 19-4-1 ATS at H Since 2012 off loss as a RF
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Buff is 11-0 ATS as a 7+ dog when they lost & failed to cover
their last 2 games
Buff is 15-4-1 ATS Since 1995 as a RDog off loss as a RDog
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Cinci is 0-9 o/u on RD off a win by more than 17 pts
T.B. is 0-8 o/u vs Div opp, when they host a non-Div opp next
Dall is 11-0 o/u H off H win & had a rushing TD
Denver is 13-0 o/u off a rd loss

Phil is 18-0 o/u when they were a dog last game

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (96-58-4, 62.3% ATS): This is one of our few angles that is not contrarian in nature, but the winning percentage justifies us using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifiers: Cincinnati -1½, Denver -7 and Seattle -7½ (Monday).

Play against any favorite of -7½ or more that lost straight up as a favorite in its last game (65-34, 65.7% ATS):Teams that are favored after losing as favorites in their previous game are often overrated teams, and this becomes especially true if they are favored by more than a touchdown the following week, as you can see by the record of this angle with a sampling of just over 100 decisions. Qualifier: Tampa Bay +10½ vs. New Orleans.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (156-95-5, 62.2% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started  to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifiers: Atlanta +4 and Buffalo +7.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (198-138-6, 58.9% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Atlanta +4 and Tampa Bay +10½.

Play on any team that lost its last game by 28 or more points (85-54-5, 61.2% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. Qualifiers: Carolina -2.5 & Washington +7½ (Monday).

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (90-63-5, 58.8% ATS since 2005): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (49-30-1, 62.0 percent), although we are not quite comfortable enough with that smallish sample size to present it as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been profitable at 41-33-4, 55.4 percent ATS. Qualifier: Jacksonville +7.

PLAY ON any NFL winless dog of more than 3 points in Game Five
if they are playing with revenge.

ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 23-9-2

Play On: Jacksonville Jaguars

Sound good

Fantasy Score Predictions for Week 5
Chi 24-21
Clev 24-21
Phil 37-16
NYG 34-24
N.Or 34-17
Dall 29-17
Det 28-16
Indy 27-24
Pit 26-23
Den 30-20
S.F. 23-20
S.D. 34-17
Cinci 28-20
Sea 26-17

Great info

Bengals: the away team has covered only 4 of last 22 Cincinnati games

Bills: the home team in Buffalo games 17-4 ATS

Broncos: Peyton Manning off a bye has won 8 straight ATS

Chiefs on road: lost only 1 of last 11 ATS

Cowboys off a win, then favored the next game: 2-13 ATS

Cowboys as home favorite: covered only 6 of last 25

Eagles at home: covered only 7 of last 30

Falcons off a loss by 6 or more points: 20-4 ATS

Lions off a win: covered the next game only 5 of 19

Patriots: home underdog for only second time since 2005

Patriots: off a loss as a favorite, then an underdog the next week: 17-2 ATS

Patriots: off a loss as a favorite, then playing a winning team the next week: 14-1 ATS

Saints (with Payton coaching): have not lost a game at home against the spread since the 2010 season! (18-0-1 ATS)

Saints (with Payton coaching) when favored by more than a touchdown: 14-2 ATS

Saints off a road loss: 21-4 ATS the next game

Steelers as a road favorite of 6 or more points: lost 10 straight ATS

Titans have not covered a game at home in over one calendar year (0-7 ATS since 9/29/13)

Best of Luck today buddy...

do you know how many times this applied to last year?

Play on non-conf Fav that lost to non-conf opp before bye ( Den )
HF off Thursday Rd win is 8-0 SUATS 32-13 avg score ( NYG )
Teams off MNF gm are 12-4-1 ATS if have bye on deck ( K.C. )
Fav is 18-6 ATS, Both teams off bye, Den is 5-0 SUATS off loss
win by 38-18 avg score. Den is 12-5 ATS single digit fav W/manning.
Pit QB is 0-5 SUATS vs a winless team.
S.B. Champs are 1-8 ATS as non-div RF of more than 3 pts in
Mon Nite

PROS (note some prices long gone): Rams, Texans, Bills, Ravens, Jets JOES: Bears, Eagles, Saints, Steelers, Chargers

 

NE  also getting just 35% of spread bets tonight but Tom Brady is 8-0 ATS when receiving less than 40% of bets

THANK YOU VERY MUCH

Since 2010, Philly is 3-14-1 ATS at home off an ATS loss.

Tampa Bay is 12-0 1H over after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons

Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the Road

According to my numbers and tracking on Total Talk, this angle has produced a 35-15-2 (70%) record the past 10 seasons in the NFL, which includes a 2-0 record in the 2013 season:

Week 6 – Philadelphia 31 at Tampa Bay 20 (OVER 45)
Week 14 – Tennessee 28 at Denver 51 (OVER 50.5)

This season we have four match-ups that fit this angle.

Week 5 - Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Week 10 - St. Louis at Arizona
Week 11 - Denver at St. Louis
Week 13 - Cincinnati at Tampa Bay

The game in play this Sunday is the Buccaneers-Saints match-up, which is the only divisional game on Sunday.

The ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2 in the last four meetings between this pair but New Orleans has scored 42 and 41 points in its last two home games against Tampa Bay. After being held to 20 and 17 points in their last two games, it’s probably an understatement to say that the Saints are due to explode.le

Play on any NFL 1-3 Team in gm 5 off loss vs opp off a win109-73-5
ATS ( on Jets )  & 34-7-1 ATS GM 5 if Fav or Dog 8.5< pts

Amazing

New England Patriots are 21-0 ATS in the regular season when coming off a loss and not favored by more than 4 points

New England Patriots are 0-12 ATS at home when their opponent is off a bye

Since 2000, Teams w/ win > .333, off SU loss + lost to spread by 25+, gave up 40+ pts: 40-22-5 ATS Bengals

Since 2001, Road favorites, off a bye: 51-25-1 ATS Seahawks

How is there revenge with the steelers?