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DALLAS AT JACKSONVILLE (in London): Oddsmakers
waited a few days to learn what they could about the status of Tony
Romo. He’s been practicing in London, and is expected to play injured,
which means estimating a point value for the “hobbled” version of Romo.
The first numbers up were near a TD on the neutral field. As I write
this report, many stores still have the game off the board. Early
guesses at a total are around 45.
MIAMI AT DETROIT:
Sharps have been in love with Miami in recent weeks, and hit the Dolphins fairly hard at the opener of +3. The game moved off the most important number in football down to +2.5, and didn’t move back. So, that’s a strong indicator for underdog support. Miami will also be a popular choice at +8.5 in two-team teasers if the line doesn’t move any more. If Sharps loved the Dolphins at +3, they’ll really love them at +8 or +8.5. The total opened at 42.5 and has been bet up a point to 43.5.
KANSAS CITY AT BUFFALO:
Kansas City has also been a popular Sharp team in recent weeks, and also drew early support here. An opener of -1 has been bet up to -1.5 or -2 for the short road favorite. Note that the move puts Buffalo in the teaser window as a home dog of +7.5 or +8 in two teamers. Basic strategy for teasers is to cross both the 3 and the 7 at one time. Miami and Buffalo are both projected to be qualifiers for that approach. In this game, many Sharps will be rooting for Kansas City -1 and Buffalo +8 because the middle of that range is such a high percentage strike point. Totals bettors hit Under 43 on the opener. We are now seeing 42 in most stores.
SAN FRANCISCO AT NEW ORLEANS: New Orleans was a strong Wise Guy bet out of the gate. Oddsmakers put up an opener of -3.5, which is right above a critical number. Even though three is the most common final margin for NFL games, the line moved forcefully away from the three. New Orleans is now -5 or -5.5 across the board. And, some square stores are testing the six. Sharps were impressed with what the Saints did the last two weeks vs. Green Bay and Carolina, and think that SF’s dismal showing vs. St. Louis last week is another sign that the Harbaugh era is fading quickly. Always pay attention when a line moves aggressively away from a key number.
MIAMI AT DETROIT:
Sharps have been in love with Miami in recent weeks, and hit the Dolphins fairly hard at the opener of +3. The game moved off the most important number in football down to +2.5, and didn’t move back. So, that’s a strong indicator for underdog support. Miami will also be a popular choice at +8.5 in two-team teasers if the line doesn’t move any more. If Sharps loved the Dolphins at +3, they’ll really love them at +8 or +8.5. The total opened at 42.5 and has been bet up a point to 43.5.
KANSAS CITY AT BUFFALO:
Kansas City has also been a popular Sharp team in recent weeks, and also drew early support here. An opener of -1 has been bet up to -1.5 or -2 for the short road favorite. Note that the move puts Buffalo in the teaser window as a home dog of +7.5 or +8 in two teamers. Basic strategy for teasers is to cross both the 3 and the 7 at one time. Miami and Buffalo are both projected to be qualifiers for that approach. In this game, many Sharps will be rooting for Kansas City -1 and Buffalo +8 because the middle of that range is such a high percentage strike point. Totals bettors hit Under 43 on the opener. We are now seeing 42 in most stores.
SAN FRANCISCO AT NEW ORLEANS: New Orleans was a strong Wise Guy bet out of the gate. Oddsmakers put up an opener of -3.5, which is right above a critical number. Even though three is the most common final margin for NFL games, the line moved forcefully away from the three. New Orleans is now -5 or -5.5 across the board. And, some square stores are testing the six. Sharps were impressed with what the Saints did the last two weeks vs. Green Bay and Carolina, and think that SF’s dismal showing vs. St. Louis last week is another sign that the Harbaugh era is fading quickly. Always pay attention when a line moves aggressively away from a key number.
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