Systems / Angles & Trends NFL Sunday

DALLAS AT JACKSONVILLE (in London): Oddsmakers waited a few days to learn what they could about the status of Tony Romo. He’s been practicing in London, and is expected to play injured, which means estimating a point value for the “hobbled” version of Romo. The first numbers up were near a TD on the neutral field. As I write this report, many stores still have the game off the board. Early guesses at a total are around 45.

MIAMI AT DETROIT:
Sharps have been in love with Miami in recent weeks, and hit the Dolphins fairly hard at the opener of +3. The game moved off the most important number in football down to +2.5, and didn’t move back. So, that’s a strong indicator for underdog support. Miami will also be a popular choice at +8.5 in two-team teasers if the line doesn’t move any more. If Sharps loved the Dolphins at +3, they’ll really love them at +8 or +8.5. The total opened at 42.5 and has been bet up a point to 43.5.

KANSAS CITY AT BUFFALO:
Kansas City has also been a popular Sharp team in recent weeks, and also drew early support here. An opener of -1 has been bet up to -1.5 or -2 for the short road favorite. Note that the move puts Buffalo in the teaser window as a home dog of +7.5 or +8 in two teamers. Basic strategy for teasers is to cross both the 3 and the 7 at one time. Miami and Buffalo are both projected to be qualifiers for that approach. In this game, many Sharps will be rooting for Kansas City -1 and Buffalo +8 because the middle of that range is such a high percentage strike point. Totals bettors hit Under 43 on the opener. We are now seeing 42 in most stores.

SAN FRANCISCO AT NEW ORLEANS: New Orleans was a strong Wise Guy bet out of the gate. Oddsmakers put up an opener of -3.5, which is right above a critical number. Even though three is the most common final margin for NFL games, the line moved forcefully away from the three. New Orleans is now -5 or -5.5 across the board. And, some square stores are testing the six. Sharps were impressed with what the Saints did the last two weeks vs. Green Bay and Carolina, and think that SF’s dismal showing vs. St. Louis last week is another sign that the Harbaugh era is fading quickly. Always pay attention when a line moves aggressively away from a key number.

TENNESSEE AT BALTIMORE: The Ravens opened at -10.5, but the big road underdog Tennessee has been bet through the key number of 10…and we’re now seeing a tug-of-war between Baltimore -9.5 and Tennessee +10. Old school money that likes any double digit dog is part of the story here. But, Baltimore has looked pretty shaky recently. And, that road loss at Cincinnati looks even worse now that Cleveland won so easily on that same field. This won’t be a heavily bet game by the public. Sharps would fade any square game day money coming in on the favorite.

PITTSBURGH AT NY JETS:
One of the odd NFL betting stories of the year here in Las Vegas is that Sharp money keeps coming in on the Jets every week, only to get embarrassed when the results are in the book. Even though the Jets keep struggling, an opener of red hot Pittsburgh -5.5 is now down to -4. Like clockwork…on a clock that might need to be fixed. Pittsburgh would take over sole possession of first place in the AFC North with a straight up win.

ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY:
The Falcons opened at -1 and have been bet up to -2.5. Sharp money would definitely come in at the full three on the home dog against a non-contending road favorite. If the game stays here, Tampa Bay will be in the teaser window and will be a popular choice in two-teamers at +8.5. Syndicates liking Atlanta bet early figuring that would be the best line they’d see. Tampa Bay money is waiting for a three if public action makes it happen, but will settle for +8.5 in teasers if need be. The Over/Under opened at 47.5, and has been bet down to 46.

DENVER AT OAKLAND: ´
Another game that moved away from a critical number at the open. Though, it’s a less common critical number and partly a position-taking move on a public favorite. Denver opened at -10.5 and was bet up to -11 or -11.5 depending on the store. Underdog money is waiting to see how high it goes before coming in, particularly the old school guys that like double digit dogs even better when it’s a divisional rivalry. The late card isn’t particularly strong this week…so it’s possible that Denver will get hit hard by squares just because there are so few appealing games to bet. Sharps might wait until 15 minutes before kickoff before investing their Raiders money.

ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA: This one opened on the key number of seven. St. Louis was the Sharp choice at that price…though a tug-of-war has developed between Arizona -6.5 and St. Louis +7. That may continue until kickoff because this isn’t a high appeal game for the public. If squares do take the home favorite because of its won-lost record, Sharps would back the divisional dog at +7 or better. Big move on the total by this week’s standards. An opener of 45 has been bet down to 43.

NY GIANTS AT SEATTLE:
Very little interest here on the openers of Seattle -9 and 45. Neither team is giving bettors much to have confidence in at this price. New York was overmatched by Indianapolis, and is short on weaponry. Seattle has lost several steps from last season, and had trouble getting distance from lowly Oakland on this field last week. The public has so few games to bet late that there may be a lot of square action right before kickoff. Sharps would fade any moves off the current numbers. (Note that the total is now 44.5 in most stores, just a very slight move Under).

CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY (Sunday Night): After a day lacking glamour, this classic rivalry may bring in a lot of bored money by default. We’re already seeing a tug-of-war between Green Bay -7 and Chicago +7.5. It’s harder to predict public money with 100% confidence when the Bears play because Chicago has been known to draw support as a public dog. Of course, squares like betting Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at affordable prices. So, this could be a heavily bet game tug-of-war with split sharp/square sentiment on both sides. Sportsbooks will root very hard for the game to NOT land on the seven. If it does, Green Bay money would push, and Chicago money would win. Disaster for a sportsbook. The total has been bet up from 52 to 53.5, probably on the memory that the first meeting between these teams a few weeks ago didn’t have a single punt!

Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (98-61-5, 61.6% ATS): This is one of the few angles we use that is not a contrarian one in nature, but the winning percentage over a nice sampling justifies us using it. NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and prep time aside, the added time off also oftentimes allows any injured players the teams may have some extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. Qualifiers: Atlanta -1, Detroit -2½ and Green Bay -7.

Play against any favorite of -7½ or more that lost straight up as a favorite in its last game (66-34, 66.0% ATS):Teams that are favored after losing as favorites in their previous game are often overrated teams, and this becomes especially true if they are favored by more than a touchdown the following week, as you can see by the record of this angle with a sampling of over 100 decisions. Qualifier: Raiders +11½ vs. Denver.

Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (162-99-5, 62.1% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. Qualifier: Chicago +7.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (203-144-6, 58.5% ATS): This one is similar to the previous angle, except that the team coming off of the road game in now facing a familiar conference foe, which lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack the foe and what to expect on defense, and it also does not matter if the team won or lost its previous road game. Qualifiers: Chicago +7 and St. Louis +7.

Bet on any team that has lost at least four straight games ATS (94-64-5, 59.5% ATS): This is a contrarian angle that looks for potentially undervalued teams that most bettors tend to avoid, as they do not like betting on teams on decided ATS losing streaks.. This angle has worked even better if the team on the ATS losing streak is now on the road (52-30-1, 63.4 percent), although we would like to see about 20 more results before presenting that one as a stand-alone angle. Home teams have still been profitable at 42-34-4, 55.3 percent ATS. Qualifier: Seattle -9.

Play against any home team coming off of two or more road losses (99-71-7, 58.2% ATS): Many times, teams coming off of consecutive road losses but returning home are actually overvalued because some people expect them to suddenly play better in front of their home fans. However, these are often bad teams that don’t enjoy as much of a home field advantage anyway, and this angle becomes even more effective as the season goes along when those consecutive losses have greater affect on a team’s playoff chances. Qualifiers: Tennessee +10 vs. Baltimore and Denver -11½ vs. Oakland.

New Orleans is 20-0 SU and 18-2 ATS at
home behind Sean Payton since 2011.

NFL road favs off 3 STRAIGHT home wins in a row (Steelers) have gone a perfect 0-9 ATS since 2000... if last win was by double digits.

NFL home teams off a THURSDAY road win (SAINTS) have gone a PERFECT 10-0 ATS in last 5 seasons. Also 7-0 to the UNDER in L3Y...

NFL b-i-g road favorites of > 10 pts (Den) have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATS last 4 years...

PLAYS AGAINST any NFL team in the 3rd of 3 straight regular season road games if
they are off a SU underdog division win in their last game.

ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 16-5

Play Against: St. Louis Rams

Colin Cowherd Blazin 5
T.B. +2.5 24-23
K.C.-2  26-20
Det -2.5 27-21
G.B. -7 33-23
Giants +9 21-26
................................................................................................................
2 Min Drill....he is 24-24 on season
Sea 30-16
Balt 31-14
G.B. 32-30
Dall 24-20
S.F. 24-23

November Team Trends
Dallas is 40-24 ATS as a Favorite
K.C. is 21-35 ATS as a Favorite
T.Bay is 35-20 ATS as a Dog
Giants are 11-28 ATS as a Dog
St.L is 17-29 ATS in Division gms.
Chicago is 33-18 ATS on the Road

The Miami Dolphins are 5-0 SU and ATS away versus NFC North opponents.

• Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS as a starter against the Green Bay Packers.

• Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 11-3 SU and ATS as a starter in the NFL against the Chicago Bears.

• Buffalo Bills quarterback Kyle Orton is 1-6 SU and ATS as a starter in the NFL against AFC West opponents.

• Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in his NFL career in games off a SU loss of 7 or more points, and 6-0 SU and ATS in this role when playing at home.

• Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 7-1 ATS in his NFL career versus AFC East opponents.

• New Orleans coach Payton is 20-3 SU and 19-4 ATS at home during the regular season in games versus non-division opponents who own a .500 or greater record.

Nice work. Good luck today!

NFL home teams who won SU in London (Detroit Lions) are 0-7 ATS at home in the following game.

NFL Fantasy Predictions .....DCIndex Score Predictions
Dall 30-20..................................Dall 27.8 - 17.7
Det 28-24.................................Mia 19.4 - 14.8
K.C. 27-17...............................K.C. 26.4 - 18.3
N.Or 23-22..............................N.Or 26 - 19.4
Balt 25-13................................Balt 31 - 13.2
Pit 30-14..................................Pit 30.3 - 19.6
Atl 24-23.................................T.B. 25.7 - 24.6
Den 41-17................................Den 38.2 - 16.0
Ariz 26-14................................Ariz 26.7 - 14.3
Sea 24-20................................Sea 27.5 - 15.4
G.B. 29-20...............................G.B. 36.7 - 24.1
Phil 30-22................................Phil 30.8 - 17.7

Play Against NFL non-div RF off 3 straight home gms 111-145-2  SU
&  120-134-4 ATS Since 1980 . Play Against Pit

49ers after losing as a favorite: lost next game against the spread only 2 of 18 times

Bears in division: 2-11 ATS

Broncos (-11 at Oakland): biggest road favorite for Peyton Manning since 2009

Broncos: 38^th game out time of last 39 that Denver has been favored

Bucs as home underdogs: 5-21 ATS

 

Cardinals last 17 games, lost only 3 against the spread

Chiefs covered 7 straight games (beating the Vegas number by a combined 91 points)

Chiefs last 13 road games, lost only 1 ATS

Cowboys: the underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time the last 4+ seasons (52-21 ATS)

Eagles at home: covered only 9 of their last 32

Falcons (-2.5 at Tampa) – NFL Road Favorite off a bye: 49-16 ATS (75% last 13 seasons)

Giants (+9 at Seattle): only 5^th time since 2004 NYG underdogs by 9 points or more

Jets have only 1 Vegas ATS cover this season – least in NFL

 

Lions after a win: covered the next game only 5 of 22 times

Packers after a bye: 8-0 ATS

Packers off loss, now playing division opponent: lost only 3 of 19 ATS

 

Packers vs. Bears – Green Bay has has covered 11 of 14

Raiders (+11 vs. Denver) - NFL home underdogs by more than 8-points: 25-8 ATS

Raiders - Winless underdogs (week 6 or later): 63% ATS since 1992 (98-57-5)

Ravens - NFL winning home teams off two straight road losses: 48-28-1 ATS (63% since 1989) 

Saints lost only ONCE against the spread their last 21 HOME games under Coach Payton (19-1-1 ATS)

Seahawks at home following a home game: 18-4 ATS

Titans: 2-11 ATS last 13 games

GL,mate.