Texans locked in the 4th seed and they didn’t give a hoot
I wouldn’t bet a dime on a team that doesn’t need to win
Bears are in same scenario Seahawks need this bad and play much better on road
I fiddled around with that query and got this from Gimme the Dog:
week = 17 and tA(margin, N=3) < -10 and HD and line < 7 and p:ats margin + 8.2 < op:ats margin
SU: 14-7 (1.0,66.7%)
ATS: 17-4 (4.7,81.0%)
Take CHI CLV & NO if you dare. The way my dreadful season has been going, you might as well fade them. Good luck with whatever you decide.
NICE WORK DBW!
Obviously, with the response on this thread on the, "the need to win" narrative that the media and bettors hold on to is a good thing for us. Going against public perception is a fact of life in the normal existence of a sports bettor.
We want people to disagree with us.....and don't take it personally. Bears cover against a team that needed to win and the Texans don't.
Chargers need to win, Miami may need to win. Vikings need to win.....Tampa Bay is the only team where we are taking a need-to-win team....and Carolina has covered six straight as an underdog, so we'll see what happens.
All these guys playing the game were the studs of their youth, the ones that played pitcher or short stop, batted clean up, the guys that when you played "killed the guy with the ball", it took four other people to bring them down........they were bigger, stronger and faster than their peers. They were also the most motivated and worked the hardest. The difference between being excellent and being poor at this level is not that much. Needing to win is more of a detriment than a positive in these types of games, and the other team, with similar studs of their youth to the favored team, has the capacity to hang with or win that game.
Bills and Ravens are now both better than the Chiefs this season.....will be interesting to see which one will play them in round three, and if one gets across the line this year....if there's any year where they'll do it, it has to be this year for Josh or Lamar.
That’s not good news for Josh and Lamar …. In my opinion… and I live in k city… josh and joe burrow are the only qbs I’ve seen that believe they can beat Patrick … if either of them had a team like philly.. I think they would win… where they did not have to do the heavy lifting 80% of the time. I have kinda followed this chiefs team and their drafting etc… and I think they could be better next year… rice was really becoming a good receiver… and he should be back… of course there are so many moving parts to getting a quality team… and then having it hold together for 18 weeks… and yet peek in January … but these guys have kinda done that… it’s been a pleasure watching mahomes… and the smile on Andy Reid’s face has been nice as well… I stayed up and watched some late night big 12 games… and when chiefs drafted mahomes… they had a pro bowl quarterback… and half way thru mahomes second year… I told my girlfriend.. we are going to every other super bowl for awhile… this was when k hunt was a rookie… and he was lookin good… I think them getting him back now … is great… he looks to of matured… sliding down last game to not score… but to run clock so the team could win easier… showed me something…. And he is a beast when he needs a yard or 2… marshan lynch type… anyway.. there are many moving parts to this… and Andy Reid being in the league for decades… helps a lot with ciphering thru many of these so the guys can play… it’s just a good mix of talent… experience… .. luck… and being at the right place at the right time… go chiefs… but I do love me some Josh Allen and Joe burrow too.
More college bowl game angles. Beyond week 17 in the bowl season historically dogs cover in DECEMBER ONLY.
9) Teams with a negative average against the spread margin/game their last 10 games.....
a) beyond week 17 (now).....as favorites 66-100 ATS.....VERSUS Alabama, Nebraska, North Carolina, Missouri, TCU
b) beyond week 17 as dogs....116-86-2 ATS........ON LSU, Washington, East Carolina, Iowa State
Query text.....game type=BG and tS(ats margin, N=10)<0 and week>17 and D, F and month=12
c) if our poorly performing team as a bowl favorite has won more than 1 out of their past three away games, this moves to 23-54 ATS...VERSUS TCU, North Carolina.....if their present opponent also has won more than 1 out of their past three away games, this moves the results to 8-38 ATS (-9.7), 16-29 straight up (-4.6)...VERSUS TCU, North Carolina
Query text....game type=BG and tS(ats margin, N=10)<0 and week>17 and F and month=12 and tS(W@A, N=3)>1 and oS(W@A, N=3)>1
d) When both teams, the favorite and the dog, have had negative ats results over their past 10 games, the bowl underdog in week>17 has been 17-2 ATS (+11.3), 13-5 straight up (+5.8)....ON East Carolina
Adding:
11) UL-Lafayette +10, 1 unit
College playoff angles.....
10) Teams with a negative average ATS margin over their past 10 games have gone 5-8 SUATS in the college playoffs....VERSUS Texas, Georgia
11) Teams with a +5 points/game ATS margin over their past 10 games have gone 16-11 ATS in the college playoffs.....ON AZ State, Notre Dame
12) The team with a better average points/game offense over their past 8 games (almost every game will then be a conference game) have gone 19-10 ATS (+6.5) in the college playoffs....ON Oregon, Arizona State, Notre Dame, Penn State
query text........game type = PO and site=neutral and tA(points, N=8)>oA(points, N=8)
13) College playoff dogs with the better performing offense and the worse performing defense on a points/game basis have gone 7-3 as underdogs....3-7 straight up...ON Arizona State, Oregon
Plays......adding:
12) Miami, OH +2', 1 unit
11) UL-Lafayette +10, 1 unit
1) Packers +1', 2 units
2) Patriots +5', 1 unit
3) Steelers +3, -115, 1 unit.............L
4) Browns +6', 1 unit
5) Cardinals +6', -105, 1 unit
6) Titans +1, -110, 1 unit
7) East Carolina +6, 1 unit
8) UConn +3, 1 unit
9) Vanderbilt +3, 1 unit.........W
10) TB Bucs -8, 1 unit
Plays:
1) Packers +1', 2 units
2) Patriots +5', 1 unit
3) Steelers +3, -115, 1 unit.............L
4) Browns +6', 1 unit
5) Cardinals +6', -105, 1 unit
6) Titans +1, -110, 1 unit
7) East Carolina +6, 1 unit
8) UConn +3, 1 unit
9) Vanderbilt +3, 1 unit.........W
10) TB Bucs -8, 1 unit
11) UL-Lafayette +10
12) Colorado State +2'
Plays:
1) Packers +1', 2 units
2) Patriots +5', 1 unit.....................L
3) Steelers +3, -115, 1 unit.............L
4) Browns +6', 1 unit
5) Cardinals +6', -105, 1 unit..........W
6) Titans +1, -110, 1 unit
7) East Carolina +6, 1 unit...............W
8) UConn +3, 1 unit..........................W
9) Vanderbilt +3, 1 unit....................W
10) TB Bucs -8, 1 unit
11) UL-Lafayette +10........................L
12) Colorado State +2'......................L
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