TEXANS @ RAVENS: FULL WRITE UP

Texans at Raven -7.5

Also: all of my plays and write ups are archived on my Covers thread @ https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101229669

Will Joe Flacco step up to be the leader the Ravens have groomed him to be?

Flacco is no stranger to playing against tough defenses; playing in the AFC North—bar none, the toughest defensive division in the NFL (the only division with 4 teams in the top 10 in overall defense this season). 

·       At home vs top 10 pass D’s (as is Houston’s #3 rated pass D), he has an average passer rating of 93.65

·       At home vs top 10 run D’s (as is Houston’s #4 ranked Run D), he has an average passer rating of 100.4.

·       Vs Houston in their first meeting in Baltimore this season, he had a passer rating of 78.5, and went 20 for 33 with 0 TD’s and 1 INT

·       Flacco’s average passer rating @ home is 85.9.

Flacco Blunder games:

@ Home vs NYJ’s:

Flacco put up one of the worst performance’s that I have seen by a team that made the playoffs (that I can remember anyway), the only reason the Ravens won that game is due to Mark Sanchez being even worse than Flacco was.  Flacco was 10 for 31 for 163 yards with 0 TD’s, 1 INT and no Ints(I know it does not sound too bad, but it was).  Flacco had a season worst passer rating in that game (37.4)

Flacco vs. Arizona:

 had struggled at home against Arizona, and made some pretty bad mistakes.  He fumbled deep in his own territory to give AZ an very short field for their first, and go ahead, touchdown in the second quarter.  Bmore gave up a kickoff return for a TD, and then Flacco threw an INT to give the Cards another short field/TD.  Flacco went 5 for 6 in the opening drive of the 3^rd Quarter to set Rice up for a 1 yard TD score to bring Bmore within 10 of AZ.  On the next possession Flacco fumbled again, but the Ravens retained the ball.  Flacco then went 5 for 9 to set Rice up for another 1 yard TD run. 

There does not seem to be rhyme of reason as to why Flacco, who has a mediocre season Passer Rating of 80.9, can have a P.R’ing of 117 vs the leagues best pass D Pittsburgh Steelers, and a P.R’ing of 37 against the Jets.  Two things I have to give him credit for…1) he wins, and does well vs ATS.  2) He does pretty well in big games this season (i.e. Pitt 1, and Pitt 2, SF—pressure as they were tied w/ Pitt for division lead.).  it is misleading to look at his season passer ratings over the last few years (down from the last 2 years, because he went against 4 more tough defenses that were not so tough the last 2 years—Cleveland and Cincinnati.  I think Flacco plays one of his better games vs a good all around D of Houston.  It is also interesting to note that Flacco has faced 11 of his 16 regular season games vs teams that were rated in the top 10 in overall defense, top 10 in pass defense, or top 10 in run defense.

Can TJ Yate Be ‘mistake-free’ to keep his team close ( within 7.5 of the Ravens)?

Yates played 7 games this season; 3 were against top defenses (2X Cincinnati, and 1 against Jacksonville), but that is kind of misleading as well.  Both Jacksonville and Cincinnati’s defenses were mere shadows of what they were in the early season.  Cincinatti Lost their best run stopper (Sims) in the Cleveland game on Nov. 27^th and they never seemed to be able to recover from the loss. On another note, I had Houston last week, but realize how lucky I got when Cincy secondary missed 3 would be INT’s (one of which would have been a pick 6 without a doubt), but Yates had a 97.7 passer rating all the same. Jax got progressively more beat up (they gave 25.8 pts per game in their last 5 games (the game before was against Houston who only scored 20 against them), and only 18.18 in the first 11 games of the season. 

·       Yates has an average passer rating (vs top Defenses) of 83.3.

·       Yate has an average passer rating of 84.1 on the road.

·       Yates has an average passer rating of 75.7 vs top defenses on the road.

The Ravens will be the absolute best defense that Yates has faced, bar none.  It will be in an extremely hostile environment.  This is the biggest game of his life, and I wonder if he is flipping his hotel remote right now, as opposed to sleeping—how does a rookie QB sleep before the biggest day of his life having never played an NFL game until the last 2 months ago?  Don’t get me wrong, I think T.J. is going to be an above average starting QB in the NFL, but I have very serious doubts about his ability to win this game on his arm if need be.

Ray Rice/Ricky Williams Vs Arian Foster/Ben Tate; who will dominate?

Arian Foster lit it up last weekend vs Cincy, but once more… Cincy has not been the same run D since losing Sims for the season.  Before Sims was injured, the Bengals allowed only 3.5 yards per attempt, but since losing him they allowed an average of 4.8 per carry (which would leave them in bottom 3^rd of the league in run D.  In the first trip to Baltimore, Foster had only 49 yards on 15 carries (3.2 per rush), and Tate had 41 yards on 9 carries (4.5).  Bmore has a formidable Run D that will not allow Foster/Tate to take over the game, and they are going to allow Yates the opportunity to beat them on his arm, but not on the ground; they certainly have the personnel to carry out that game plan.  The only way Foster / Tate will do real damage is if Yates opens up an effective passing game, which would force Baltimore into pass prevention.

Rice had 101 yards on 23 carries vs Houston, allowed by Flacco’s 305 yards passing on 33 attempts.  Rice has an average of 4.7 per carry this season, and I think the week off has served him well.  Williams has 4.1 per carry this season, and is a formidable option when resting Rice.  Although the Texans are ranked 4^th in rush defense, they have not had success against good running teams. Houston faced only 4 top 10 rushing teams, and lost every time they did; Carolina (they lost 28-13, and gave up 4.88 per carry), New Orleans (they lost, and gave up 4.55 yards per carry), Oakland (they lost 25-20 and gave up 4.3 yards per carry), Baltimore (they lost 29-14, and gave up 3.76 yards per carry).  Rice and Williams are going to be primed for this game, and I think they will have their way vs an over rated Houston run defense.

Texans never won a road playoff game, and the Ravens have not won @ home (playoffs) in over a decade, so what new trend will begin?

Of course Houston has never won a road playoff game, but they never lost one either.  The Trend more concerning is Balt’s 4-4 record in their last 8 playoff games, and the fact that Flacco has never played in a home playoff game; this adds to the jitters that he is probably experiencing right now.  Flacco has had plenty of post season experience for a QB of only 4 yrs; he has played in 7 (4-3)

How much will home field come into play in this game?

Quite a bit, in my opinion.  Yates looked very shakey last weekend going 5 for 12 for only 62 yards in the first half; 77 yards rushing in the first half helped stabilize what should have been a rough 1^st half for the Texans.  That Ravens crowd will probably be as loud, or louder this weekend, but they won’t quit down for the Texans on third down this weekend.  In addition, Suggs and company are going to make Yate’s task much, much harder than the Bengals could.   The Noise is going to cause a few extra false starts for the rookie QB, which will put him in more obvious passing downs than what the Texans would prefer.

Can TJ Yates become the 3^rd QB to win multiple playoff games in his rookie season?  I just don’t think so.  I think this Baltimore Raven’s defense is going to terrorize this kid.  He has 1 TD and 2 INTs in his last 4 games, and that just won’t do it vs this Ravens D.  They are going to shut down the run, and Yates is going to have to take some shots down field to loosen them up for covering the passes into the flat.  Passing down field will be into the territory of one of the NFLs best safties (Mr. Ed Reed), and that is going to be a dangerous proposition for Yates to undertake.

What will be the strategies for these two teams, and whose game plan will force the other to change?

Houston is going to try to pass on first downs—short passes over the top, or into the flat.  They will attempt some early draw plays to offset the Ravens rabid pass rush.  The Ravens are going to have Reed floating in the secondary waiting for Yates to make a mistake, and the cover guys are going to play up on the line to stop the screen passes.  Yates is going to have to take a few shots down field early to attempt to loosen up the box (run Defense), but I just don’t see him having success in this endeavor.  Houston’s best chance in this game is to keep it close until the forth quarter, and take advantage of the Ravens aging defense in hopes that fatigue will cause some broken coverages, ect.

Baltimore is going to run, run, and then take a few shots down field.  Baltimore is aware that Houston has given up an average of 4+ yards per carry vs good rushing teams, and they will force Houston to bring everyone up to try and stop them.  Once Houston starts playing the run, Harbaugh will take shots down field.  Their desire is to get up a couple scores on Houston and force Yates to go into passing mode, and that is where Baltimore will win the turnover battle (I see Baltimore with a +2, or better, turnover margin in this game.

Summary:

It is a fairly easy play on Baltimore when you consider:

·       Yates has 2 Int’s to only 1 TD in his last 4 games

·       Houston has faced only 4 top 10 running teams this season, and lost every one of those games

·       Yates has not faced the quality of defenses in his career that Flacco has faced this season

·       This is the first home playoff game in Baltimore in years, and they are going to be rabid

·       Flacco/Ravens have much more playoff experience, and I think to an extent that Houston is happy right now because they went further than any Texan team has, and Baltimore will consider anything less than a superbowl ring as a failure

·       Texans lost the first game with Schaub at the helm 14-29 (Schaub was 21-37 for 220… what can we even hope for Yates to turn in?)

·       64% of the public is on Houston in this game, yet the line opened at -7.5 in most houses, and is now at -8 in some, and unchanged in others.  Vegas is baiting the Texans play…don’t take it.

·       Lastly… I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I am rational enough to see how some calls seem to favor what is best for the NFL… what better storyline is there than to have 2 Harbaughs as 2 of the last 4 standing with a potential rematch of the ‘Sibling Rivalry’?....hmmmm.  The NFL will lose money (in ratings if a Yates driven Texans team advances)… once more, I am NOT a person who thinks that corruption effects very much at all in professional sports, but sometimes those ticky tac calls seem to favor the NFL’s way of thinking it seems….lucky for us all the other tangibles favor us anyway

Ravens -7.5  for 8.8 Units 

KS u sum bitch u!  U did it again!  I love the write-up buddy!  Fantastic work!

FUPM

I had SF and UNDER yesterday and actually thought I had a shot at the total until the fireworks started....wtf?  LOL  

Oh well 34 points in the 4th quarter and 4 td's in the last 4 minutes of a playoff game is normal....LMAO

FUPM

I was hott on SF all week and the UNDER but shit happens and I can laugh about it because I didnt shoot my entire load off on that 1 game....

Instead I am gonna pound BALT and the UNDER today and that's as square as it gets!   

I am killin the moose all game!

FUPM

flaco will lose this game for balt today