texans/bills deja vu trap game

deja vu?

When I first looked at the week 4 lines bills -16 jumped out as the obvious choice for a survivor pick,  Then I started to get a feeling this line/game reminded of a previous game, 2018 week 3 vikings/bills.  vikings were -16 as well and were also the obvious survivor pick that week, no way would they lose at home to the pathetic bills who had josh allen (two first names?) a struggling rookie qb making his 2nd start.  This was a viking team that had super bowl aspirations after losing the previous year in the nfc title game.  Then not only did they lose, they got whooped 27-6.  Very few saw this coming and many, including myself got knocked out of survivor pools

2021 week 4, bills -16 strong sb contenders after losing in the afc title game last year,  host the texans who are starting davis mills (two last names?) a strugging rookie qb making his second start.  This will be the most popular survivor pick this week, just as vikings were in 2018.  Few gave the bills a chance to upset the vikings in 2018, few give the texans the chance to upset the bills.  These could definitely all be coincidences, but there are other legit reasons to back the texans here.

Trap game angle

Bills just blew out the dolphins and washington, they are riding high, expecting to do the same to the lowly texans with ease then move onto a revenge game on snf vs the chiefs, the team who prevented them from reaching the sb last season.  Major lookahead spot.  Texans also have had extended rest having played on thursday.  Davis mills has a full week of practices to prepare and bills don't have much film on him so he may catch them by surprise a bit.  Texans could hit them in the mouth early and give the bills more of a game then most think.  16 points is alot to cover.

texans +16  ml +870  at that price why not?  Will also avoid the bills in survivor pool this week and save them for later.    

Ur reaching here … Davis mills will never be josh Allen that’s the difference 

ML is being greedy...if you like Houston bet them alt line +3.5 and/or +7.5 IMO, still great value and if they choke the game away which is what bad teams do (see Lions) you still win.

1000% ML is asking too much.. 

What are you smoking???

David Mills will not beat the Bills... 

I not  sure about this game do you guys remember i think it three years ago. The bills were u underdogs 16.5  Vikings were the favorites to win. The bills upset the vikings and kirk cousin had a bad game that day. Bills score was 27 -6. This was allen 2nd second start in the Nfl.

I love the "look ahead" posts by people on Covers...trying to look smarter than they actually are.

I think the real question about this game is How many times will Dave Culley stick his tongue out and licks his lips on the sideline? o/u 235.5? 
man that dude freaks me out 

You are looking back with hindsight.  Josh allen was bad his rookie year, his first start vs chargers he was worse by qbr then davis mills was in his first start, so the comparison is valid.   Doesn't matter that davis mills  won't ever  be as good as allen is right now.  This is about one game.  

did u read my post?  that exactly what I wrote.  If you searched covers before that game you wouldn't have found anyone saying bills were going to beat the vikings.

That's a good option  might have to add alt line of +7.5 at +200.  Still I'm betting bet on +16  then a much lesser amount on ml.

@lordbettington

jmho

bills had defense against min, not the same with hou

bills had a first round pick at qb, not the same with hou

bills are hungry

min was undefeated 1-0-1, bills have a loss, so they're not going to let up

@champs1111

 Wrong,  you are thinking of the bills the following year.   That 2018 bills team gave up 47 and 31 pts in losses to ravens and chargers in wks 1 and 2 prior to the vikings game and they also gave up 37 to the colts and 41 to the bears later on and went 6-10, not a good team, hardly a great defense, but they put it together for one great game against the vikings.  Texans defense is actually better statistically then that bills team was at the same point.  

Yes allen was a first round pick, but he was very raw and not very good at that point.   Which is similiar to davis mills at this point.

Bills are hungry, but they very easily could have marked this off as a win already, thinking about beating up the vulnerable chiefs the next week.   If you think the bills don't let up pound the -16. 

way way too high a handicap to give up....just isnt worth it ether way....buffalo could easily get a backdoor moosing afater jumping to a big start, houston might catch a complacent bills team looking forward...

Better games geezers...

A few things stick out from that game that make this weeks tilt different and why I believe the Bills won't lose.

Go back a week to for the Vikings; that was the 29-29 tie at Lambeau where Calrson (Vikings rookie kicker) missed 2 field goals in OT, including a 30 yd chip shot with no time left.  Poor kid got cut the next day.

Also, that was the game Rodgers took an early hit and broke his collarbone.  That game had so much drama and press and it seemed like the Vikings carried that baggage with them all week.  So Buffalo comes to town and 100% the Vikes has no interest in that game coming off that crazy tie.

In the Vikings case (and hindsight being what it is), there was zero interest to compete that game coming off such a high from the previous week.  A total flat spot.

Don't see that the case here with Buffalo.  If anything, quite the opposite.  They're witnessing a crack in KC's armour for top seed in the AFC and this is effectively a must win (as KC is facing a must win as well).  I can't see Buffy looking past this one, especially not having come off a game that saw any type of drama the week before.

Bills role here big time.

?? bruh stop smoking my weed.  that shit making u hulisinat..   bill win this game 35-10. 

?? bruh stop smoking my weed.  that shit making u hulisinat..   bill win this game 35-10. 

cant stop wont stop

Lol. This is funny. I thought about this too. But do I think it will happen? I don't know but just the thought is amusing 

@Battalion74

 So you had bills over vikings in that game?  almost everyone had vikings.  Vikings also had rams, a playoff team on deck so it was also a letdown spot, that bills team at the time was considered maybe the worst in the league.  I'll add that vikings team just wasn't that good, nobody knew that yet.

  I cant imagine the bills are really losing sleep over facing the texans, multiple blowouts can make a team complacent. They already thinking about the chiefs.  They might be able roll the texans still, but history says otherwise.  2017 falcons hosted miami  as -13.5 favorites, lost straight up  Why?  The following week was a super bowl rematch with the patriots.  May have looked ahead there.  definitely possible the bills could do the same.    

wow line went up.  Bet is locked in got texans  +17.5  and ml 11-1  at caesars right before tnf kickoff.   small parlays texans ml raiders ml 30-1     texans ml raiders ml patriots ml 105-1 and bengals ml and  un 46 with texans ml  raiders ml 75-1.   will probably add  texans un 47  and alt line texans +7.5 before gameday    

Texans are going to need a time machine to bring back Warren Moon , Earl Camlbell , Brice Matthew's,  Munchak , Brazile, Bethea , Webster , Chikdress , Johnson and them to beat the BILLS on sunday ...

Might as well donate Texan ML bets to the homeless 

@lordbettington

 I don't believe in look ahead games, or at least putting a lot of stock into them.  Not saying players don't schedule watch but you don't sit in meetings all week watching film on your upcoming opponent, thinking of an opponent 2 weeks down the road.  What you will have a tendency to think is the most recent result if that outcome was extraordinary, i.e. you're distracted.

I'll put far more weight into a team's mental state coming off of a heartbreak, blowout, or unlucky loss.  The Vikes were in that exact spot. 

Buffalo is not distracted.  2, they are well coached and will be constantly reminded by MacD re: the game on the docket.  You prepare for KC by playing well vs Houston and prepare for KC on Monday morning.

You still gotta play the game but I'm confident to say this is not a look ahead spot for the Bills.  Cover?  Don't know, don't care.  Lose?  Nah...