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THE BARBER WEEK 4!!!

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

Quote Originally Posted by NFL-1975:

Gentlemen let me
tell you something I was taught and had made me much profit in betting and capping pro football.    

BET VALUE NOT PERCEPTION!!!!   Why I took gb LASTNIGHT Rodgers -5.5 at home was a good value bet.   I really don't like Carolina this week but at -2.5 there is way to much value here.   Stats are great but knowing a good situation value is huge.     I really like philly here after they finally got the WIN this week they remind me of Seattle there like a college team play with emotion and winning in New York was a huge game for them and I look for them to come out strong and start finding there groove here.    
So far you're not profitable this year.



Check back with me come playoff time rookie you obviously HAVNT followed me the past 8 years listen son you pay attention and read post from the solid cappers on here and you might pick up on a few things Thanks for your brilliant insight though sir!!! I have profited 8 years running and been playing professional poker for the past 7 years and cashed close to 1.3 million in winnings and if you ever make it out this way hit me up id love to show any followers the ropes and a stripper name cinnamon that will change your life. Bol gents
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by NFL-1975:



Public perception and long term nfl capping experience.   If you had to pic one lock this week to bet on even up what would it be mine is simple packers.   The public is gonna hammer gb here as it should but let's put this into a football sense.    Yes gb is the way way better team so my logic for this 1unit play is simple packers coming off a huge emotional win on a short week with a crap 49ers team that just got spanked against it divion rival which team do you feel would be more likely to lay it out there and play for blood I like the pack to win but feel sf will keep this tighter then expected and the 80+% of the public will take a hit come Sunday.    Why do u think the line is so low shouldn't it be packers -13 or more hmmmmm.  Smart money if you are to play this game is on the niners as am I.  Once again it's a stab in the dark I can go into statistics all day but in the end knowing situations and understanding value is where I tend to Lay my bets.  Bol gents 

Don't like situation bets.

Example last week. GB:

1. A sandwich game for GB. Big game/win against Seattle. after KC somewhat of a rival game against SF.

2. When a team plays Seattle they get beat up and lose the next game.

Play KC. Line even dropped from 7 to 51/2.

How did that work out???

 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by tahoejoe2:

Quote Originally Posted by NFL-1975:




Public perception and long term nfl capping experience.   If you had to pic one lock this week to bet on even up what would it be mine is simple packers.   The public is gonna hammer gb here as it should but let's put this into a football sense.    Yes gb is the way way better team so my logic for this 1unit play is simple packers coming off a huge emotional win on a short week with a crap 49ers team that just got spanked against it divion rival which team do you feel would be more likely to lay it out there and play for blood I like the pack to win but feel sf will keep this tighter then expected and the 80+% of the public will take a hit come Sunday.    Why do u think the line is so low shouldn't it be packers -13 or more hmmmmm.  Smart money if you are to play this game is on the niners as am I.  Once again it's a stab in the dark I can go into statistics all day but in the end knowing situations and understanding value is where I tend to Lay my bets.  Bol gents 

Don't like situation bets.
Example last week. GB:
1. A sandwich game for GB. Big game/win against Seattle. after KC somewhat of a rival game against SF.
2. When a team plays Seattle they get beat up and lose the next game.
Play KC. Line even dropped from 7 to 51/2.
How did that work out???



Well sir if you look back I was in packers -5.5 what I am talking about is not a situational bet I'm simply giving my opinion on the value I see in this play we can all bet the obvious when you do your own capping As a gambler professionally and a huge NFL FAN there is times just like in poker that you go off of instinct and feelings and If I put my cash at risk there is a strong perception or hunch I feel about the wager. It's simple if you don't like the pic then don't play its like the 3legged horse every once in awhile you call the long shot Thanks for the feedback not like I called this a lock of the year I simply feel that the niners will cover here Bol gents
 
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Posted: #29
Ytd 21-20       -1.5 units  -$3000 
POY 1-0 
4units 1-2
2units 3-5 

Ok gents got back 5.5 units last week lets keep this rolling 
EARLY BETS ARE IN 

PHILLY -2.5    POY!!!!   BANK IT!!! 
Carolina -2.5 (2unit).  Just to much value here 
Indy-jags over 46.5 (2unit) 
Arizona-Rams under 43.5 (2unit)
Miami +2
Oak-bears over 44
KC-cincy over 43
Houston-Falcons over 46
49ers +9.5
Steelers-Ravens under 44.5
Bears +3
Denver -6 (2unit). 
Chiefs +4

Bol gents I have to go outta town for a few days this will be my final card until possibly Monday.    Let's make some $$$$$$
 
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Posted: #30
I feel strongly that this week will be a lot of upsets around the nfl it's desperation time for a lot teams already at this point and as a life long steeler fan I'm leaning hard toward Baltimore on Thursday night!!!   I do like Vic as a veteran and leader with this talented offense but feel Baltimore like the Chiefs will be taking this as a playoff game. I simply can't pull the trigger and feel Vic will have a lot time in the pocket with the devastated Baltimore pass rush and I also can tell you don't be fooled steelers will not play conversative just because Vic is behind center they will come out throwing to confuse Baltimore and keep the safety's honest here interesting game here in Pitt but can't go with my heart and this rivalry is one of the tops in all of football one things Forsure there will be some injuries coming outta this game.  
 
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Posted: #31
thanks for your analysis on the gb sf game

picks look solid...im on the same side on many
 
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Posted: #32
How does Bears even score a TD with Clausen? Lol Oakland wins low score game
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Teague79:

How does Bears even score a TD with Clausen? Lol Oakland wins low score game

Very good point not all my pics are favorites I like to throw some curves in there from time to time and trust me I never bet the Bears but for some reason I feel they snag a upset here can't see Oakland going 3-1 we shall see what Sunday brings I got a lot dawgs this week time to make some profits favorites been covering a lot as of late time for Vegas to toss a curve in there 
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by NFL-1975:


Very good point not all my pics are favorites I like to throw some curves in there from time to time and trust me I never bet the Bears but for some reason I feel they snag a upset here can't see Oakland going 3-1 we shall see what Sunday brings I got a lot dawgs this week time to make some profits favorites been covering a lot as of late time for Vegas to toss a curve in there 

Have you watched all 3 of Oakland's games this year? Why would make this prediction? Chi has one of the worst pass D vs Oaklands strong WR core. 
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by RaiderDre:


Have you watched all 3 of Oakland's games this year? Why would make this prediction? Chi has one of the worst pass D vs Oaklands strong WR core. 


Listen Oakland total defense is ranked 32nd in the league 30th against the pass    
Bears total defense 11th against the pass 6th so do your homework before just calling what you see I appreciate the comments but I put a lot capping and knowing football match ups into each and every pic not all picks will be liked.   Simply put I like the Bears here at home with the upset!!! Oakland is a team on the rise but when I look at the matchups and Oakland horrible defense makes me smile getting 3 points and the home team.      Bears have had by far the hardest schedule thus far as has Oakland minus the crappy Browns with McGown at QB pure trashball he's so bad the Bears cut his azz.   So let me ask you what is it that you like so much about Oakland here on the road laying points?     I can't find much    Bears stink no doubt about it but there defense has played very well against far better offenses then Oakland has to offer add that to the fact Jefferies is back and home crowd and I'll take the points here in the upset.   Bol gents 

 
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Posted: #36
My old man tried to raise me to be a raider fan but growing up in the 70s Pittsburgh was it for me but I bet with value not my heart but I know that one thing about football fans are they tend to know there teams very well and Oakland just might destroy the Bears all is possible but I see value in the Bears at home so that's where my money is put     I FEEL ALOT UPSETS BREWING THIS WEEK THE PUBLIC IS HEAVY HEAVY ON WAY TO MANY FAVORITES 
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by NFL-1975:



Listen Oakland total defense is ranked 32nd in the league 30th against the pass    
Bears total defense 11th against the pass 6th so do your homework before just calling what you see I appreciate the comments but I put a lot capping and knowing football match ups into each and every pic not all picks will be liked.   Simply put I like the Bears here at home with the upset!!! Oakland is a team on the rise but when I look at the matchups and Oakland horrible defense makes me smile getting 3 points and the home team.      Bears have had by far the hardest schedule thus far as has Oakland minus the crappy Browns with McGown at QB pure trashball he's so bad the Bears cut his azz.   So let me ask you what is it that you like so much about Oakland here on the road laying points?     I can't find much    Bears stink no doubt about it but there defense has played very well against far better offenses then Oakland has to offer add that to the fact Jefferies is back and home crowd and I'll take the points here in the upset.   Bol gents 


Thanks for your insight. I'll be on the over! 
 
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Posted: #38
Oh ya!!!!

Pitt- Ravens under 44.5 $$

Good start to the week 
 
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Posted: #39
Nfl with that storm coming into phi/was game u still think phi will cover?
 
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Posted: #40
I'm gonna stay with my bet here on philly still a 5 unit play for me not gonna look to much into the weather 
 
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Posted: #41
Bears Oakland over 44 is now a NO PLAY!!!   I'm going to take the hit on the juice .2 units    
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by NFL-1975:

Bears Oakland over 44 is now a NO PLAY!!!   I'm going to take the hit on the juice .2 units    

Any special reason for this ???
 
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Posted: #43
Jefferies out he was a big factor in this play for me and being from Chicago there talking 15-20mph gust just not feeling this play and the chatter in hearing is leaning strong on the under!!'  I'll take the $200 juice hit and move on.  
 
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Posted: #44
FINAL CARD 
Ytd 21-20       -1.5 units  -$3000 
POY 1-0 
4units 1-2
2units 3-5 

Ok gents got back 5.5 units last week lets keep this rolling 
EARLY BETS ARE IN 

PHILLY -2.5    POY!!!!   BANK IT!!! 
Carolina -2.5 (2unit).  Just to much value here 
Indy-jags over 46.5 (2unit) 
Arizona-Rams under 43.5 (2unit)
Miami +2
KC-cincy over 43
Houston-Falcons over 46
49ers +9.5
Steelers-Ravens under 44.5
Bears +3
Denver -6 (2unit). 
Chiefs +4

Adding::::
Arizona cards -6.5 (2unit).  

Bol gents lets make some money this week liking this card a lot gentlemen wish all Bol this weekend 
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by NFL-1975:

Gentlemen let me tell you something I was taught and had made me much profit in betting and capping pro football.    

BET VALUE NOT PERCEPTION!!!!   Why I took gb LASTNIGHT Rodgers -5.5 at home was a good value bet.   I really don't like Carolina this week but at -2.5 there is way to much value here.   Stats are great but knowing a good situation value is huge.     I really like philly here after they finally got the WIN this week they remind me of Seattle there like a college team play with emotion and winning in New York was a huge game for them and I look for them to come out strong and start finding there groove here.    

Mr. Barber.  If you're betting value and not perception wouldn't you almost always be betting the worst teams in the league since public perception is so low and therefore will have more value?
 
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Posted: #46
I'm in. Let's go $$$ :)
 
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Posted: #47
Hey Barber, GL with your plays tomorrow. 

One quick question, and I apologize if you mentioned it somewhere in your thread already, but does the possible bad weather in DC change your thoughts on the Eagles?? I'm not betting the game, so I didn't go deep into the weather part, but I believe the entire eastern seaboard from NJ to Florida is being bothered by the same storm. Possible monsoon conditions, possible super windy conditions. With wash a power running team, and Philly a team who slings it around....does that change your mind on Philly being PoY 5 unit material? 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Hey Barber, GL with your plays tomorrow. 

One quick question, and I apologize if you mentioned it somewhere in your thread already, but does the possible bad weather in DC change your thoughts on the Eagles?? I'm not betting the game, so I didn't go deep into the weather part, but I believe the entire eastern seaboard from NJ to Florida is being bothered by the same storm. Possible monsoon conditions, possible super windy conditions. With wash a power running team, and Philly a team who slings it around....does that change your mind on Philly being PoY 5 unit material? 

One thing I have learned is if the weather is gonna be monsoon type conditions they will not let this game be played yes the weather will be a factor but it doesn't sway me in anyway from this play this is by far the steal of the week here!!!!    Philly like most teams that take on free agents struggled early to find there groove so have the colts    The first two weeks of the regular season u have seen cappers struggle here because it's truly a guess and hope.   But now we're in the meat of the season so to speak where teams such as Philly and other top teams that have struggled early will find there groove and we will be gifted with wonderful low spreads.   Philly first three opponents record 7-2  where the skins 3-6.   Philly is prime to take off here and also have a shot at taking control of this division no way I can see them laying a egg in this spot Washington is a team in the rise but I lay them in the same look as the raiders and Tennessee just not quiet there yet.   Philly will rise up here and take control in this must win game already and take advantage of this low line you won't be seeing value like this in a few weeks   I can go into a lot chatter about what I'm hearing and whatnot but I truly had this line capped at 5.5 at the open along with most solid Vegas cappers I gossip and play poker with daily    That being said the answer is yes I'm gonna ride this game and weather out and hope to get these next few weeks of profit and turn this season around.    Bol gents 
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Rana828:


Mr. Barber.  If you're betting value and not perception wouldn't you almost always be betting the worst teams in the league since public perception is so low and therefore will have more value?

No sir sometimes there is no value in a game hence why I didn't bet Thursday's spread at all    Its not just value it's also capping the lines and knowing the teams    I have watched every team all 32 at least once this year some more then once and knowing and learning value of a good line is huge i lay my biggest bets where I see the most value as far as the spreads go and then during the week pic up on games like Arizona and few others I hear about or do my homework on.   Your not always gonna guess right in capping sports but if you see a good value bet such as I see with Philly and Denver this week those two being my best two lines of the week I will place a larger bet on these plays   If i could r got 5 on Denver it would've been a 4 unit play for me here.     Bol gents 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Every NFL capper that plays there own bets has there ways of figuring value and ways to get profits out of betting the NFL.   I'm a high volume gambler I lay large on what I have as a great line and then use my tools such as line movement perception and situational bets to choose my one unit plays.   My money is made thru my 2-4-POY plays which I was over 65% on last year combined.   If my one unit plays hit along with my larger plays then with my unit size I can have a 30-50k week.  Like most I'm simply here because I love the NFL and have years of capping that I like to share with you gentlemen and it keeps me focused and makes me put the work in even more knowing there are a few gents on This forums that follow.   Some very good cappers on covers forumn    Best I have found and only place I post my plays 

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